IRWDIronwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Genericas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.17 · now $4.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IRWD has typically landed between $3.05 and $5.30 — a range of −26.8% to +27.1% from the issuance price $4.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,159 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-02-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where IRWD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.05worst · -26.8%$5.3best · +27.1%
  • now $4.17 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.1 (-1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.76–$4.45
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.05–$5.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,159 windows spanning 2010-02-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-01-07−62.5%−62.5%+1.1%
2025-01-08−61.4%−62.9%+0.0%
2025-01-28−57.4%−57.4%+0.0%
3 best
2025-10-28+150.6%−2.6%+150.6%
2025-10-30+133.3%+0.0%+157.3%
2025-10-29+131.8%−0.7%+155.6%

4,159 overlapping windows · 2010-02-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+3.9%
n=16
Feb
38%
−4.1%
n=16
Mar
59%
+2.9%
n=17
Apr
24%
−4.0%
n=17
May
47%
−2.3%
n=17
Jun
82%
+3.6%
n=17
Jul
47%
+0.1%
n=17
Aug
24%
−2.9%
n=17
Sep
35%
−1.6%
n=17
Oct
50%
+2.5%
n=16
Nov
63%
+9.9%
n=16
Dec
50%
+1.3%
n=16

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$5$12026-07-07: 1 insider sale, $578K — Silver Ronald2026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $80K — McHugh Julie2026-03-17: 2 insider sales, $20.5M — DENNER ALEXANDER J …2026-02-24: 6 insider sales, $640K — MCCOURT Thomas A, John Minardo, Shetzline Michael, Silver Ronald …2026-02-23: 6 insider sales, $610K — MCCOURT Thomas A, John Minardo, Shetzline Michael, Silver Ronald …2026-01-05: 1 insider sale, $163K — Silver Ronald2025-11-17: 1 insider sale, $20K — Gaskins Tammi L2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $11K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $20K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $163K2026-02: 12 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $20.5M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $80K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $578K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Silver Ronald — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McHugh Julie — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DENNER ALEXANDER J — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed same daydirector DENNER ALEXANDER J — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed same daydirector MCCOURT Thomas A — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer John Minardo — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Shetzline Michael — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Silver Ronald — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Martini Gregory S. — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gaskins Tammi L — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MCCOURT Thomas A — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer John Minardo — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Shetzline Michael — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Silver Ronald — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Martini Gregory S. — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gaskins Tammi L — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Silver Ronald — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gaskins Tammi L — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-07Silver RonaldofficerSale127,890 @ $4.52$578K−29.0% of holding−10.1%not yet — horizon still open313,680Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-16McHugh JuliedirectorSale21,571 @ $3.73$80K−7.9% of holding+6.1%not yet — horizon still open250,749Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17DENNER ALEXANDER JdirectorSale6,725,000 @ $3.05$20.5M−42.2% of holding+28.3%+15.3%9,194,435Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-17DENNER ALEXANDER JdirectorSale5,800 @ $3.31$19K−0.1% of holding+28.3%+15.3%9,188,635Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-24MCCOURT Thomas AdirectorSale103,526 @ $3.66$379K−6.5% of holding−11.6%+3.8%1,489,002Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24John MinardoofficerSale19,053 @ $3.66$70K−5.0% of holding−11.6%+3.8%363,886Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Shetzline MichaelofficerSale17,012 @ $3.66$62K+3.4% of holding−11.6%+3.8%521,425Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Silver RonaldofficerSale12,621 @ $3.66$46K−4.8% of holding−11.6%+3.8%252,636Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Martini Gregory S.officerSale11,457 @ $3.66$42K−6.7% of holding−11.6%+3.8%160,601Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Gaskins Tammi LofficerSale11,239 @ $3.66$41K−5.0% of holding−11.6%+3.8%213,738Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23MCCOURT Thomas AdirectorSale94,757 @ $3.81$361K−5.6% of holding−14.9%−2.3%1,592,528Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23John MinardoofficerSale17,439 @ $3.81$66K−4.4% of holding−14.9%−2.3%382,939Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Shetzline MichaelofficerSale15,570 @ $3.81$59K−2.8% of holding−14.9%−2.3%538,437Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Silver RonaldofficerSale11,552 @ $3.81$44K−4.2% of holding−14.9%−2.3%265,257Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Martini Gregory S.officerSale10,487 @ $3.81$40K−5.7% of holding−14.9%−2.3%172,058Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Gaskins Tammi LofficerSale10,287 @ $3.81$39K−4.4% of holding−14.9%−2.3%224,977Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05Silver RonaldofficerSale35,416 @ $4.60$163K−11.3% of holding−2.0%−5.0%276,809Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17Gaskins Tammi LofficerSale6,016 @ $3.32$20K−2.5% of holding+6.8%+13.3%235,264Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-11John MinardoofficerSale7,754 @ $0.84$7K−1.9% of holding+34.9%+439.4%400,378Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-11Silver RonaldofficerSale2,846 @ $0.84$2K−1.0% of holding+34.9%+439.4%276,809Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-11Gaskins Tammi LofficerSale1,316 @ $0.84$1K−0.5% of holding+34.9%+439.4%241,280Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-11Martini Gregory S.officerSale1,265 @ $0.84$1K−0.7% of holding+34.9%+439.4%182,545Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16MCCOURT Thomas AdirectorSale13,353 @ $0.58$8K−1.2% of holding+10.8%+437.1%1,147,281Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Gaskins Tammi LofficerSale2,563 @ $0.58$1K−1.0% of holding+10.8%+437.1%242,596Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-10MCCOURT Thomas AdirectorSale139,064 @ $1.76$245K−10.7% of holding−5.4%−51.4%1,160,634Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-10Shetzline MichaelofficerSale41,269 @ $1.76$73K−6.9% of holding−5.4%−51.4%554,007Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-10John MinardoofficerSale38,938 @ $1.76$69K−8.7% of holding−5.4%−51.4%408,132Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-10Martini Gregory S.officerSale12,052 @ $1.76$21K−6.2% of holding−5.4%−51.4%183,810Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-10Silver RonaldofficerSale12,048 @ $1.76$21K−4.1% of holding−5.4%−51.4%279,655Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

38 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-20Silber JeffreyofficerAward / grant137,036137,036Form 4
2026-06-16DENNER ALEXANDER JdirectorAward / grant63,481323,855Form 4
2026-06-16Duane Jon RdirectorAward / grant63,481253,820Form 4
2026-06-16Moukheibir CatherinedirectorAward / grant63,481181,425Form 4
2026-06-16McHugh JuliedirectorAward / grant63,481272,320Form 4
2026-06-16Kessler Marla LdirectorAward / grant63,481229,364Form 4
2026-06-16Shepard JaydirectorAward / grant63,481235,036Form 4
2026-06-16Currie Mark GdirectorAward / grant63,481676,900Form 4
2026-06-15DENNER ALEXANDER JdirectorAward / grant4,065260,374Form 4
2026-05-19Silver RonaldofficerAward / grant25,000441,570Form 4
2026-03-13DENNER ALEXANDER JdirectorAward / grant4,451256,309Form 4
2026-03-10Shetzline MichaelofficerAward / grant136,612658,037Form 4
2026-03-10MCCOURT Thomas AdirectorAward / grant409,8361,898,838Form 4
2026-03-10Martini Gregory S.officerAward / grant136,612297,213Form 4
2026-03-10John MinardoofficerAward / grant136,612500,498Form 4
2026-03-10Silver RonaldofficerAward / grant163,934416,570Form 4
2026-03-10Gaskins Tammi LofficerAward / grant136,612350,350Form 4
2025-12-15DENNER ALEXANDER JdirectorAward / grant4,178251,858Form 4
2025-09-15DENNER ALEXANDER JdirectorAward / grant11,718247,680Form 4
2025-06-13DENNER ALEXANDER JdirectorAward / grant24,193235,962Form 4
2025-06-10Duane Jon RdirectorAward / grant45,000190,339Form 4
2025-06-10Kessler Marla LdirectorAward / grant45,000165,883Form 4
2025-06-10DENNER ALEXANDER JdirectorAward / grant45,000211,769Form 4
2025-06-10Currie Mark GdirectorAward / grant45,000613,419Form 4
2025-06-10Moukheibir CatherinedirectorAward / grant45,000117,944Form 4
2025-06-10Dreyfus AndrewdirectorAward / grant45,000228,313Form 4
2025-06-10Shepard JaydirectorAward / grant45,000171,555Form 4
2025-06-10McHugh JuliedirectorAward / grant45,000208,839Form 4
2025-05-20MCCOURT Thomas AdirectorAward / grant540,0001,687,281Form 4
2025-04-02DENNER ALEXANDER JdirectorAward / grant10,416166,769Form 4
2025-02-10Shetzline MichaelofficerAward / grant133,333595,276Form 4
2025-02-10John MinardoofficerAward / grant122,222447,070Form 4
2025-01-27Martini Gregory S.officerAward / grant111,111195,862Form 4
2025-01-27Silver RonaldofficerAward / grant133,333291,703Form 4
2025-01-17MCCOURT Thomas AdirectorAward / grant147,3541,299,698Form 4
2025-01-17John MinardoofficerAward / grant40,187324,848Form 4
2025-01-17Shetzline MichaelofficerAward / grant48,224461,943Form 4
2024-12-16DENNER ALEXANDER JdirectorAward / grant4,249156,353Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.