Issued 2026-09-16 at $111.82 · now $111.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IRTC has typically landed between $89.71 and $139.98 — a range of −19.8% to +25.2% from the issuance price $111.82.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,468 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-10-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($111.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IRTC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $111.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $111.82 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $112.86 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $102.62–$123.1
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $89.71–$139.98
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,468 windows spanning 2016-10-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-04-05 | −47.3% | −47.3% | +0.0% |
| 2021-04-01 | −45.2% | −45.2% | +0.0% |
| 2021-03-30 | −44.0% | −44.0% | +1.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-10-05 | +105.8% | +0.0% | +105.8% |
| 2021-10-06 | +86.7% | +0.0% | +98.5% |
| 2020-07-28 | +78.1% | +0.0% | +78.1% |
2,468 overlapping windows · 2016-10-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
80%
+6.5%
n=10
Feb
70%
+4.2%
n=10
Mar
30%
−3.5%
n=10
Apr
50%
−3.6%
n=10
May
40%
+3.5%
n=10
Jun
60%
+3.0%
n=10
Jul
40%
−0.6%
n=10
Aug
50%
+9.9%
n=10
Sep
60%
+1.4%
n=10
Oct
33%
−3.3%
n=9
Nov
80%
+11.6%
n=10
Dec
40%
+0.6%
n=10
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Wilson Daniel G. | officer | Sale | 773 @ $121.83 | $94K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Blackford Quentin S. | director | Sale | 26,859 @ $124.65 | $3.3M | −10.6% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 226,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Patterson Chad | officer | Sale | 7,093 @ $124.65 | $884K | −10.2% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,125 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Murphy Patrick Michael | officer | Sale | 7,093 @ $124.65 | $884K | −9.2% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,699 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Turakhia Minang | officer | Sale | 7,093 @ $124.65 | $884K | −10.6% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,116 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Shrishrimal Sumi | officer | Sale | 5,372 @ $124.65 | $670K | −10.7% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Patterson Chad | officer | Sale | 2,712 @ $122.12 | $331K | −4.6% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,629 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Rodda Julianne | officer | Sale | 2,112 @ $122.12 | $258K | −10.4% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,201 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Smith Mervin | officer | Sale | 617 @ $122.12 | $75K | −2.7% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,410 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Turakhia Minang | officer | Sale | 1,423 @ $124.71 | $177K | −2.6% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,620 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Freeman Sean Clinton | officer | Sale | 918 @ $124.71 | $114K | −6.3% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,641 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Shrishrimal Sumi | officer | Sale | 1,716 @ $108.19 | $186K | −4.1% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,287 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Rosenbaum Marc Wade | officer | Sale | 729 @ $108.19 | $79K | −4.3% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,155 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Sale | 2,293 @ $118.02 | $271K | −9.5% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Sale | 1,147 @ $119.16 | $137K | −5.3% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Sale | 940 @ $116.05 | $109K | −3.7% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,671 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Sale | 642 @ $116.98 | $75K | −2.6% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,029 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Purchase | 5,312 @ $10.71 | $57K | +26.2% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,611 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Sale | 290 @ $120.53 | $35K | −1.4% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Lawrence Brian Lee | officer | Sale | 1,014 @ $120.80 | $122K | −4.8% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,154 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Smith Mervin | officer | Sale | 2,585 @ $114.30 | $295K | −10.1% of holding | +4.4% | −15.5% | 23,027 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Blackford Quentin S. | director | Sale | 5,423 @ $128.44 | $697K | −2.6% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 204,155 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Blackford Quentin S. | director | Sale | 4,347 @ $128.44 | $558K | −2.0% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 213,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Blackford Quentin S. | director | Sale | 4,043 @ $128.44 | $519K | −1.9% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 209,578 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Patterson Chad | officer | Sale | 3,030 @ $128.44 | $389K | −5.0% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 58,164 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Murphy Patrick Michael | officer | Sale | 2,028 @ $128.44 | $260K | −3.0% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 65,532 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Turakhia Minang | officer | Sale | 1,487 @ $128.44 | $191K | −2.5% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 57,446 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Patterson Chad | officer | Sale | 1,414 @ $128.44 | $182K | −2.3% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 61,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Turakhia Minang | officer | Sale | 1,310 @ $128.45 | $168K | −2.3% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 56,136 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wilson Daniel G. | officer | Sale | 1,261 @ $128.45 | $162K | −3.4% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 35,660 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Turakhia Minang | officer | Sale | 1,230 @ $128.45 | $158K | −2.2% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 54,906 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Murphy Patrick Michael | officer | Sale | 1,190 @ $128.44 | $153K | −1.8% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 64,342 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Murphy Patrick Michael | officer | Sale | 1,139 @ $128.45 | $146K | −1.8% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 63,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Shrishrimal Sumi | officer | Sale | 978 @ $128.44 | $126K | −2.3% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 41,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Shrishrimal Sumi | officer | Sale | 946 @ $128.44 | $122K | −2.1% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 43,754 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Shrishrimal Sumi | officer | Sale | 906 @ $128.44 | $116K | −2.1% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 42,848 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wilson Daniel G. | officer | Sale | 815 @ $128.44 | $105K | −2.1% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 37,485 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wilson Daniel G. | officer | Sale | 755 @ $128.44 | $97K | −1.9% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 38,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Smith Mervin | officer | Sale | 752 @ $128.44 | $97K | −2.8% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 26,212 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Smith Mervin | officer | Sale | 600 @ $128.44 | $77K | −2.3% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 25,612 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wilson Daniel G. | officer | Sale | 564 @ $128.45 | $72K | −1.5% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 36,921 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Rosenbaum Marc Wade | officer | Sale | 417 @ $128.45 | $54K | −2.4% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 16,706 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Rosenbaum Marc Wade | officer | Sale | 399 @ $128.45 | $51K | −2.3% of holding | −3.1% | −19.8% | 17,123 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Blackford Quentin S. | director | Sale | 25,540 @ $135.42 | $3.5M | −12.1% of holding | −3.0% | −23.4% | 186,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Patterson Chad | officer | Sale | 8,967 @ $135.42 | $1.2M | −14.8% of holding | −3.0% | −23.4% | 51,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Murphy Patrick Michael | officer | Sale | 7,805 @ $135.42 | $1.1M | −11.4% of holding | −3.0% | −23.4% | 60,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Turakhia Minang | officer | Sale | 7,804 @ $135.42 | $1.1M | −13.8% of holding | −3.0% | −23.4% | 48,899 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Shrishrimal Sumi | officer | Sale | 6,217 @ $135.42 | $842K | −13.7% of holding | −3.0% | −23.4% | 39,182 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Wilson Daniel G. | officer | Sale | 5,188 @ $135.42 | $703K | −14.5% of holding | −3.0% | −23.4% | 30,694 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Rosenbaum Marc Wade | officer | Sale | 4,797 @ $135.42 | $650K | −24.2% of holding | −3.0% | −23.4% | 15,014 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Smith Mervin | officer | Sale | 4,041 @ $135.42 | $547K | −16.6% of holding | −3.0% | −23.4% | 20,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Smith Mervin | officer | Sale | 732 @ $140.91 | $103K | −4.6% of holding | −7.0% | −22.2% | 15,106 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Rosenbaum Marc Wade | officer | Sale | 280 @ $140.91 | $39K | −2.6% of holding | −7.0% | −22.2% | 10,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Sale | 1,725 @ $145.32 | $251K | −7.1% of holding | −11.9% | −23.8% | 22,508 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Sale | 1,637 @ $147.62 | $242K | −7.5% of holding | −11.9% | −23.8% | 20,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Sale | 1,378 @ $143.40 | $198K | −5.4% of holding | −11.9% | −23.8% | 24,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Sale | 572 @ $146.95 | $84K | −2.5% of holding | −11.9% | −23.8% | 21,936 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Murphy Patrick Michael | officer | Sale | 2,478 @ $184.83 | $458K | −4.4% of holding | −4.2% | −52.7% | 53,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Patterson Chad | officer | Sale | 280 @ $184.83 | $52K | −0.6% of holding | −4.2% | −52.7% | 43,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Sale | 1,585 @ $174.38 | $276K | −6.6% of holding | −3.1% | −44.5% | 22,325 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
85 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Shrishrimal Sumi | officer | Award / grant | 9,706 | 49,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Blackford Quentin S. | director | Award / grant | 48,534 | 252,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Murphy Patrick Michael | officer | Award / grant | 13,589 | 76,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Patterson Chad | officer | Award / grant | 13,589 | 69,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Turakhia Minang | officer | Award / grant | 13,589 | 67,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Freeman Sean Clinton | officer | Award / grant | 273 | 14,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Rosenbaum Marc Wade | officer | Award / grant | 178 | 16,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Blackford Quentin S. | director | Award / grant | 178 | 204,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Patterson Chad | officer | Award / grant | 177 | 58,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Turakhia Minang | officer | Award / grant | 137 | 55,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Shrishrimal Sumi | officer | Award / grant | 133 | 42,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Bairey Merz Cathleen Noel | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 10,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Bodaken Bruce G. | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 14,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Ling Karen | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 11,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | MCGINNIS KAREN K | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 3,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | OBOYLE KEVIN C | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 3,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 21,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | YOOR BRIAN B | director | Award / grant | 1,573 | 7,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Option exercise | 5,312 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Patten Jason H | director | Award / grant | 2,218 | 4,436 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Lawrence Brian Lee | officer | Award / grant | 6,689 | 21,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Rosenbaum Marc Wade | officer | Award / grant | 2,508 | 17,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Murphy Patrick Michael | officer | Award / grant | 7,024 | 67,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Smith Mervin | officer | Award / grant | 6,689 | 26,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Shrishrimal Sumi | officer | Award / grant | 5,518 | 44,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Wilson Daniel G. | officer | Award / grant | 8,361 | 39,055 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Turakhia Minang | officer | Award / grant | 10,034 | 58,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Blackford Quentin S. | director | Award / grant | 31,842 | 217,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Freeman Sean Clinton | officer | Award / grant | 7,525 | 14,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Patterson Chad | officer | Award / grant | 10,870 | 62,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Rosenbaum Marc Wade | officer | Award / grant | 9,210 | 19,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Shrishrimal Sumi | officer | Award / grant | 11,294 | 45,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Smith Mervin | officer | Award / grant | 9,210 | 24,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Blackford Quentin S. | director | Award / grant | 46,687 | 211,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Wilson Daniel G. | officer | Award / grant | 9,412 | 35,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Murphy Patrick Michael | officer | Award / grant | 15,060 | 68,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Patterson Chad | officer | Award / grant | 17,318 | 60,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Turakhia Minang | officer | Award / grant | 15,060 | 56,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Option exercise | 5,312 | 5,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | TALWALKAR ABHIJIT Y | director | Option exercise | 5,312 | 25,611 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.