IRT · TickerCove

IRTIndependence Realty Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Residentialas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.94 · now $14.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IRT has typically landed between $13.02 and $16.57 — a range of −12.8% to +10.9% from the issuance price $14.94.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,272 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-08-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$14.94 · 12% of range

$14.6 low$17.35 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.5%

typical move · IQR 10.4%

−12.8%worst (p90)+10.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where IRT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $14.94 (+0.0%)
typical $15.01 (+0.5%)
middle 50% $14.23–$15.78
90% range $13.02–$16.57

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,272 windows spanning 2013-08-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−50.7%	−50.7%	+0.0%
2020-03-05	−50.7%	−50.7%	+0.0%
2020-02-24	−46.5%	−50.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-03	+38.7%	+0.0%	+44.9%
2020-05-15	+29.7%	+0.0%	+34.2%
2020-05-07	+29.3%	−5.4%	+29.3%

3,272 overlapping windows · 2013-08-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

38%

−0.4%

n=13

Feb

38%

+0.5%

n=13

Mar

69%

+0.5%

n=13

Apr

62%

+2.6%

n=13

May

62%

+0.9%

n=13

Jun

77%

+3.4%

n=13

Jul

69%

+2.9%

n=13

Aug

69%

+2.2%

n=13

Sep

14%

−3.7%

n=14

Oct

62%

+1.3%

n=13

Nov

77%

+3.6%

n=13

Dec

46%

+0.1%

n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $16.16	$8K	−1.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	41,569	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $16.70	$8K	−1.2% of holding	−3.5%	not yet — horizon still open	42,069	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-01	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $16.75	$8K	−1.2% of holding	−3.3%	not yet — horizon still open	42,569	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $16.15	$8K	−1.1% of holding	+10.8%	not yet — horizon still open	43,069	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-01	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $16.33	$8K	−1.3% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	37,372	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-01	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $14.85	$7K	−1.3% of holding	−0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	37,872	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $16.47	$8K	−1.3% of holding	−4.5%	−12.9%	38,372	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $16.73	$8K	−1.3% of holding	+3.4%	−5.3%	38,872	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $17.00	$9K	−1.2% of holding	+2.9%	−14.3%	39,872	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-03	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $15.74	$8K	−1.2% of holding	+7.7%	−3.2%	40,372	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-01	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $16.42	$8K	−1.2% of holding	−5.5%	−4.5%	40,872	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-02	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $17.88	$9K	−1.2% of holding	−10.7%	−10.6%	41,372	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-01	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $16.90	$8K	−1.2% of holding	+2.1%	−12.5%	41,872	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-01	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $17.58	$9K	−1.2% of holding	−7.0%	−9.8%	42,372	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $18.40	$9K	−1.2% of holding	−8.5%	−21.1%	42,872	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-01	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $19.01	$10K	−1.3% of holding	−9.8%	−38.4%	38,194	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-01	SCHAEFFER SCOTT	director	Sale	10,000 @ $21.21	$212K	−1.1% of holding	−9.9%	−41.6%	873,365	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-01	Gebert Richard D	director	Sale	500 @ $21.28	$11K	−1.3% of holding	−9.9%	−41.6%	38,694	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

62 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-13	Soaries DeForest B. Jr.	director	Award / grant	6,197	68,984	Form 4
2026-05-13	del Rio Ana Marie	director	Award / grant	6,197	76,792	Form 4
2026-05-13	Washington Lisa	director	Award / grant	6,197	30,644	Form 4
2026-05-13	Gebert Richard D	director	Award / grant	6,197	43,569	Form 4
2026-05-13	MACNAB CRAIG	director	Award / grant	6,197	16,991	Form 4
2026-05-13	MCCLURE MELINDA H	director	Award / grant	6,197	50,569	Form 4
2026-05-13	Brines Ned	director	Award / grant	6,197	63,921	Form 4
2026-04-17	Brines Ned	director	Code L	604	57,725	Form 4
2026-04-17	Brines Ned	director	Code L	16	1,538	Form 4
2026-03-01	SCHAEFFER SCOTT	director	Withheld for tax	14,864	1,000,879	Form 4
2026-03-01	Sebra James J	director	Withheld for tax	6,283	404,484	Form 4
2026-03-01	Weisbaum Michele R.	other	Withheld for tax	1,542	18,080	Form 4
2026-03-01	Delozier Jason R	officer	Withheld for tax	1,393	55,981	Form 4
2026-02-03	SCHAEFFER SCOTT	director	Withheld for tax	28,994	971,522	Form 4
2026-02-03	Sebra James J	director	Withheld for tax	12,382	394,553	Form 4
2026-02-03	Delozier Jason R	officer	Withheld for tax	2,765	52,952	Form 4
2026-02-03	Sebra James J	director	Award / grant	53,928	406,935	Form 4
2026-02-03	SCHAEFFER SCOTT	director	Award / grant	147,365	1,000,516	Form 4
2026-02-03	SCHAEFFER SCOTT	director	Award / grant	44,221	1,015,743	Form 4
2026-02-03	Sebra James J	director	Award / grant	16,214	410,767	Form 4
2026-02-03	Delozier Jason R	officer	Award / grant	11,168	55,717	Form 4
2026-02-03	Delozier Jason R	officer	Award / grant	4,422	57,374	Form 4
2026-01-23	Brines Ned	director	Code L	574	57,121	Form 4
2026-01-23	Brines Ned	director	Code L	15	1,522	Form 4
2025-11-01	Weisbaum Michele R.	other	Withheld for tax	1,834	19,622	Form 4
2025-10-24	Brines Ned	director	Code L	583	56,547	Form 4
2025-10-24	Brines Ned	director	Code L	16	1,507	Form 4
2025-07-18	Brines Ned	director	Code L	545	55,964	Form 4
2025-07-18	Brines Ned	director	Code L	15	1,491	Form 4
2025-05-14	Washington Lisa	director	Award / grant	5,178	24,447	Form 4
2025-05-14	del Rio Ana Marie	director	Award / grant	5,178	70,595	Form 4
2025-05-14	Gebert Richard D	director	Award / grant	5,178	43,372	Form 4
2025-05-14	Bowie Stephen R.	director	Award / grant	5,178	22,826	Form 4
2025-05-14	Brines Ned	director	Award / grant	5,178	55,418	Form 4
2025-05-14	MACNAB CRAIG	director	Award / grant	5,178	10,794	Form 4
2025-05-14	MCCLURE MELINDA H	director	Award / grant	5,178	44,372	Form 4
2025-05-14	Soaries DeForest B. Jr.	director	Award / grant	5,178	62,787	Form 4
2025-04-21	Brines Ned	director	Code L	417	50,240	Form 4
2025-04-21	Brines Ned	director	Code L	12	1,476	Form 4
2025-03-01	SCHAEFFER SCOTT	director	Withheld for tax	14,996	883,365	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i