Issued 2026-09-25 at $65.24 · now $65.24 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, IRON has typically landed between $50.60 and $84.81 — a range of −22.4% to +30.0% from the issuance price $65.24.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,513 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-08-12 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($65.24) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IRON has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $65.24 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $65.24 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $66.94 (+2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $60.36–$73.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $50.6–$84.81
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,513 windows spanning 2020-08-12 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-03-04 | −58.7% | −58.7% | +0.0% |
| 2024-03-01 | −57.5% | −57.5% | +0.0% |
| 2024-03-05 | −57.3% | −57.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-12-27 | +63.6% | +0.0% | +67.3% |
| 2022-12-29 | +63.0% | +0.0% | +67.3% |
| 2023-05-25 | +62.2% | +0.0% | +69.2% |
1,513 overlapping windows · 2020-08-12 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- October 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study of DISC-0974-201 in Participants With IBD and Anemia (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase 2, Open-Label Study of DISC-3405 in Participants With Polycythemia Vera (PV) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Study of DISC-0974 (RALLY-MF) in Participants With Myelofibrosis or Myelodysplastic Syndrome and Anemia (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: HELIOS: Open-Label, Long-Term Extension Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of DISC-1459 (Bitopertin) in Participants With EPP or XLP (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−2.6%
n=6
Feb
67%
+0.5%
n=6
Mar
17%
−8.1%
n=6
Apr
50%
−0.5%
n=6
May
67%
+4.2%
n=6
Jun
83%
+9.3%
n=6
Jul
50%
−3.5%
n=6
Aug
83%
+8.1%
n=6
Sep
43%
−4.4%
n=7
Oct
33%
+2.1%
n=6
Nov
67%
+6.5%
n=6
Dec
67%
+3.4%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 27,136 @ $70.11 | $1.9M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 912 @ $79.96 | $73K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 318,866 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 759 @ $79.96 | $61K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 312,230 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 18 @ $79.96 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,427 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 2,810 @ $79.98 | $225K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 319,778 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 2,339 @ $79.98 | $187K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 312,989 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 54 @ $79.98 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,445 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 26,542 @ $80.17 | $2.1M | −7.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 322,598 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 22,090 @ $80.17 | $1.8M | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 315,337 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 511 @ $80.17 | $41K | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,501 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 10 @ $80.98 | $810 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 322,588 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 9 @ $80.98 | $729 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 315,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 2 @ $80.98 | $162 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,499 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 70 @ $79.95 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 349,140 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 58 @ $79.95 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 337,427 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 1 @ $79.95 | $80 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,012 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Sale | 8,796 @ $83.12 | $731K | −13.9% of holding | −19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,324 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Sale | 300 @ $82.53 | $25K | −0.5% of holding | −18.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Quisel John D | director | Sale | 12,712 @ $79.20 | $1.0M | −5.1% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 237,952 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Quisel John D | director | Sale | 11,888 @ $79.84 | $949K | −5.0% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 226,064 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Quisel John D | director | Sale | 8,400 @ $78.11 | $656K | −3.2% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 250,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Sale | 804 @ $82.64 | $66K | −1.5% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Khara Rahul | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $80.00 | $400K | −8.7% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,324 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Quisel John D | director | Sale | 16,896 @ $74.95 | $1.3M | −6.8% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 232,464 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Quisel John D | director | Sale | 9,704 @ $74.27 | $721K | −3.7% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 249,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Quisel John D | director | Sale | 6,400 @ $76.05 | $487K | −2.8% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 226,064 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Sale | 100 @ $82.50 | $8K | −0.2% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Khara Rahul | officer | Sale | 1,649 @ $75.00 | $124K | −3.1% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Khara Rahul | officer | Sale | 851 @ $75.00 | $64K | −1.6% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,173 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Sale | 300 @ $72.50 | $22K | −0.5% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,324 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Sale | 9,700 @ $72.66 | $705K | −15.2% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Quisel John D | director | Sale | 22,927 @ $69.92 | $1.6M | −8.8% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 237,137 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Quisel John D | director | Sale | 9,522 @ $70.70 | $673K | −4.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 227,615 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Khara Rahul | officer | Sale | 5,400 @ $69.94 | $378K | −9.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,273 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Khara Rahul | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $70.73 | $113K | −2.9% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,673 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Quisel John D | director | Sale | 1,551 @ $71.61 | $111K | −0.7% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 226,064 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Khara Rahul | officer | Sale | 500 @ $71.62 | $36K | −0.9% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,173 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Sale | 11,651 @ $68.76 | $801K | −16.0% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,285 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Sale | 6,961 @ $69.92 | $487K | −11.4% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Franchi Jean M. | director | Sale | 6,257 @ $69.24 | $433K | −8.9% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Savage William Jacob | officer | Sale | 3,531 @ $66.12 | $233K | −4.1% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,680 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Savage William Jacob | officer | Sale | 2,200 @ $66.81 | $147K | −2.7% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,480 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Franchi Jean M. | director | Sale | 400 @ $69.00 | $28K | −0.6% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,590 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Savage William Jacob | officer | Sale | 4,392 @ $65.52 | $288K | −4.7% of holding | +1.1% | +5.9% | 88,197 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Savage William Jacob | officer | Sale | 2,986 @ $66.41 | $198K | −3.4% of holding | +1.1% | +5.9% | 85,211 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Franchi Jean M. | director | Sale | 353 @ $69.06 | $24K | −0.5% of holding | −0.6% | +12.5% | 70,990 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Franchi Jean M. | director | Sale | 3,684 @ $65.89 | $243K | −4.9% of holding | −4.4% | +11.9% | 71,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Franchi Jean M. | director | Sale | 3,397 @ $65.01 | $221K | −4.3% of holding | −4.4% | +11.9% | 75,027 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Quisel John D | director | Sale | 13,264 @ $62.86 | $834K | −5.5% of holding | −6.7% | +9.3% | 226,064 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Stephenson Pamela | officer | Sale | 5,531 @ $62.86 | $348K | −6.4% of holding | −6.7% | +9.3% | 80,998 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Franchi Jean M. | director | Sale | 4,075 @ $62.86 | $256K | −4.9% of holding | −6.7% | +9.3% | 78,424 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Savage William Jacob | officer | Sale | 3,256 @ $62.86 | $205K | −3.4% of holding | −6.7% | +9.3% | 92,589 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Sale | 3,231 @ $62.86 | $203K | −5.6% of holding | −6.7% | +9.3% | 54,324 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Khara Rahul | officer | Sale | 2,853 @ $62.86 | $179K | −5.2% of holding | −6.7% | +9.3% | 52,173 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-20 | Khara Rahul | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $69.74 | $70K | −2.6% of holding | −15.4% | −10.5% | 37,793 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Khara Rahul | officer | Sale | 4,993 @ $78.62 | $393K | −11.4% of holding | −0.1% | −9.2% | 38,950 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Khara Rahul | officer | Sale | 1,157 @ $79.27 | $92K | −3.0% of holding | −0.1% | −9.2% | 37,793 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Khara Rahul | officer | Sale | 350 @ $77.67 | $27K | −0.8% of holding | −0.1% | −9.2% | 43,943 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 393 @ $91.47 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | −16.6% | −30.9% | 349,210 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Sale | 213 @ $91.47 | $19K | −0.1% of holding | −16.6% | −30.9% | 337,485 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
107 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Quisel John D | director | Option exercise | 36,000 | 262,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Quisel John D | director | Option exercise | 36,000 | 150,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 27,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 17,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Option exercise | 7,136 | 7,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Option exercise | 7,136 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Bitterman Kevin | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Option exercise | 8,796 | 63,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Option exercise | 8,796 | 13,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Option exercise | 300 | 54,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Option exercise | 300 | 22,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Quisel John D | director | Option exercise | 33,000 | 259,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Quisel John D | director | Option exercise | 33,000 | 91,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Option exercise | 804 | 55,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Option exercise | 804 | 22,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Khara Rahul | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 57,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Khara Rahul | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 49,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Quisel John D | director | Option exercise | 25,584 | 251,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Quisel John D | director | Option exercise | 7,416 | 259,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Quisel John D | director | Option exercise | 7,416 | 124,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Quisel John D | director | Option exercise | 25,584 | 15,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 54,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 23,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Khara Rahul | officer | Option exercise | 1,649 | 53,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Khara Rahul | officer | Option exercise | 1,649 | 54,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Khara Rahul | officer | Option exercise | 851 | 53,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Option exercise | 300 | 54,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Option exercise | 300 | 23,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Khara Rahul | officer | Option exercise | 851 | 56,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Option exercise | 9,700 | 64,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Yu Jonathan Yen-Wen | officer | Option exercise | 9,700 | 24,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Quisel John D | director | Option exercise | 34,000 | 260,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Khara Rahul | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 59,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ratcliffe Liam | director | Award / grant | 6,212 | 6,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | White William Richard | director | Award / grant | 6,212 | 6,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Quisel John D | director | Option exercise | 34,000 | 41,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Khara Rahul | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 57,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Nicholson Donald William | director | Award / grant | 6,212 | 6,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | GEMAYEL GEORGES | director | Award / grant | 6,212 | 6,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Chin Mark | director | Award / grant | 6,212 | 6,212 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.