IRDM · TickerCove

IRDMIridium Communications Inc.Communication Services · Telecommunications Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $47.28 · now $47.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IRDM has typically landed between $38.83 and $57.07 — a range of −17.9% to +20.7% from the issuance price $47.28.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,631 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-03-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($47.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$47.28 · 79% of range

$15.57 low$55.72 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.0%

typical move · IQR 14.6%

−17.9%worst (p90)+20.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where IRDM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $47.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $47.28 (+0.0%)
typical $47.77 (+1.0%)
middle 50% $44.32–$51.21
90% range $38.83–$57.07

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,631 windows spanning 2008-03-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−42.0%	−42.0%	+0.7%
2020-02-13	−36.5%	−36.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−36.2%	−41.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-03-20	+69.0%	+0.0%	+70.9%
2026-03-17	+65.4%	−3.2%	+65.4%
2026-03-18	+64.0%	−0.5%	+70.1%

4,631 overlapping windows · 2008-03-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

61%

+0.6%

n=18

Feb

56%

+0.9%

n=18

Mar

61%

+3.8%

n=18

Apr

68%

+3.0%

n=19

May

74%

+5.1%

n=19

Jun

84%

+4.3%

n=19

Jul

58%

−0.5%

n=19

Aug

47%

−2.3%

n=19

Sep

26%

−3.9%

n=19

Oct

61%

+1.7%

n=18

Nov

67%

+2.2%

n=18

Dec

67%

+2.2%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Last Timothy James	officer	Sale	5,769 @ $46.35	$267K	−6.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	84,130	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-03	Last Timothy James	officer	Sale	2,013 @ $47.36	$95K	−2.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	89,899	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18	FITZPATRICK THOMAS	director	Sale	15,046 @ $49.20	$740K	−25.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	43,260	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17	FITZPATRICK THOMAS	director	Sale	209,233 @ $50.22	$10.5M	−78.2% of holding	−3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	58,306	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	McBride Suzanne E.	director	Sale	85,454 @ $50.28	$4.3M	−23.3% of holding	−3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	282,017	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Morgan Kathleen A.	officer	Sale	32,648 @ $50.34	$1.6M	−20.7% of holding	−3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	125,415	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Last Timothy James	officer	Sale	19,021 @ $50.33	$957K	−16.8% of holding	−3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	93,913	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Kapalka Timothy	officer	Sale	13,473 @ $50.51	$681K	−27.4% of holding	−3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	35,731	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Olson Eric T	director	Sale	8,000 @ $50.61	$405K	−5.1% of holding	−3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	149,680	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Morgan Kathleen A.	officer	Sale	544 @ $50.85	$28K	−0.4% of holding	−3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	124,871	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Last Timothy James	officer	Sale	500 @ $50.88	$25K	−0.5% of holding	−3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	93,413	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-06	Kapalka Timothy	officer	Sale	2,043 @ $33.00	$67K	−4.3% of holding	+9.8%	not yet — horizon still open	45,721	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-02	Kapalka Timothy	officer	Sale	3,790 @ $31.00	$117K	−7.4% of holding	+11.9%	not yet — horizon still open	47,764	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-31	FITZPATRICK THOMAS	director	Sale	20,839 @ $18.00	$375K	−8.3% of holding	−12.7%	+101.1%	231,034	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-30	DESCH MATTHEW J	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $17.33	$347K	+1.8% of holding	−6.9%	+123.1%	1,127,019	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-28	NIEHAUS ROBERT H	director	Purchase	30,000 @ $17.49	$525K	+11.2% of holding	−4.0%	+123.7%	297,363	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-28	FITZPATRICK THOMAS	director	Sale	6,797 @ $18.00	$122K	−2.6% of holding	−4.0%	+123.7%	251,873	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-27	FITZPATRICK THOMAS	director	Sale	3,331 @ $18.00	$60K	−1.3% of holding	−6.8%	+101.2%	258,670	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03	Kapalka Timothy	officer	Sale	1,922 @ $26.08	$50K	−4.6% of holding	+17.1%	−50.3%	39,737	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-18	Morgan Kathleen A.	officer	Sale	15,005 @ $33.58	$504K	−21.2% of holding	−7.3%	−30.9%	55,818	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18	Olson Eric T	director	Sale	4,955 @ $34.03	$169K	−3.5% of holding	−7.3%	−30.9%	137,557	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-10	FITZPATRICK THOMAS	director	Sale	12,500 @ $28.53	$357K	−4.9% of holding	−6.0%	+4.4%	241,030	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-02	Last Timothy James	officer	Sale	57 @ $29.23	$2K	−0.2% of holding	−6.4%	+2.1%	30,034	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

231 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	DESCH MATTHEW J	director	Withheld for tax	9,583	1,441,434	Form 4
2026-09-01	McBride Suzanne E.	director	Withheld for tax	3,623	260,991	Form 4
2026-09-01	Scheimreif Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	2,207	257,552	Form 4
2026-09-01	Morgan Kathleen A.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,053	122,818	Form 4
2026-09-01	Last Timothy James	officer	Withheld for tax	1,501	91,912	Form 4
2026-09-01	O'Neill Vincent James	officer	Withheld for tax	1,461	126,944	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kapalka Timothy	officer	Withheld for tax	693	35,038	Form 4
2026-08-20	McBride Suzanne E.	director	Gift	17,403	264,614	Form 4
2026-08-17	NIEHAUS ROBERT H	director	Gift	50,000	266,910	Form 4
2026-07-10	Thoma Donald Lee	officer	Award / grant	41,949	41,949	Form 4
2026-06-30	Shivanandan Monique S.	director	Award / grant	44	15,939	Form 4
2026-06-30	YEANEY JACQUELINE E	director	Award / grant	30	25,340	Form 4
2026-06-30	Sears Kay	director	Award / grant	30	30,114	Form 4
2026-06-30	Olson Eric T	director	Award / grant	385	157,680	Form 4
2026-06-30	NIEHAUS ROBERT H	director	Award / grant	378	316,910	Form 4
2026-06-30	FRAZIER LEON ANTHONY	director	Award / grant	93	46,504	Form 4
2026-06-30	FITZPATRICK THOMAS	director	Award / grant	49	267,539	Form 4
2026-06-30	Canfield Thomas C	director	Award / grant	639	234,294	Form 4
2026-06-30	Alterman Louis M	director	Award / grant	38	13,810	Form 4
2026-06-01	DESCH MATTHEW J	director	Withheld for tax	9,583	1,451,017	Form 4
2026-06-01	McBride Suzanne E.	director	Withheld for tax	3,622	367,471	Form 4
2026-06-01	Scheimreif Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	2,205	259,759	Form 4
2026-06-01	Morgan Kathleen A.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,052	158,063	Form 4
2026-06-01	Last Timothy James	officer	Withheld for tax	1,498	112,934	Form 4
2026-06-01	O'Neill Vincent James	officer	Withheld for tax	1,459	128,405	Form 4
2026-06-01	Kapalka Timothy	officer	Withheld for tax	692	45,029	Form 4
2026-06-01	Kapalka Timothy	officer	Award / grant	4,175	49,204	Form 4
2026-05-20	Canfield Thomas C	director	Disposition	136	233,655	Form 4
2026-03-31	YEANEY JACQUELINE E	director	Award / grant	59	25,310	Form 4
2026-03-31	Alterman Louis M	director	Award / grant	74	13,772	Form 4
2026-03-31	NIEHAUS ROBERT H	director	Award / grant	743	316,533	Form 4
2026-03-31	FRAZIER LEON ANTHONY	director	Award / grant	182	46,411	Form 4
2026-03-31	Canfield Thomas C	director	Award / grant	1,257	233,791	Form 4
2026-03-31	FITZPATRICK THOMAS	director	Award / grant	95	267,490	Form 4
2026-03-31	Krongard A B	director	Award / grant	640	366,542	Form 4
2026-03-31	Olson Eric T	director	Award / grant	757	157,295	Form 4
2026-03-31	Sears Kay	director	Award / grant	59	30,084	Form 4
2026-03-31	Shivanandan Monique S.	director	Award / grant	86	15,895	Form 4
2026-03-09	DESCH MATTHEW J	director	Withheld for tax	8,747	1,460,600	Form 4
2026-03-09	McBride Suzanne E.	director	Withheld for tax	3,067	371,093	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i