Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.41 · now $5.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IRD has typically landed between $4.27 and $8.02 — a range of −21.1% to +48.3% from the issuance price $5.41.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
474 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-09-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IRD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.41 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.56 (+2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.83–$6.29
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.27–$8.02
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-21 | −41.7% | −43.8% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-20 | −35.5% | −38.4% | +9.6% |
| 2025-03-19 | −33.9% | −38.4% | +9.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-02-04 | +113.5% | +0.0% | +113.5% |
| 2026-02-03 | +98.7% | −4.6% | +98.7% |
| 2026-02-02 | +97.0% | −1.3% | +97.0% |
474 overlapping windows · 2024-09-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2028-06-15 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Safety and Tolerability Subretinal OPGx-001 for LCA5-Associated Inherited Retinal Degeneration (LCA5-IRD) and Non-interventional Arm With Untreated Patients (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Safety and Tolerability of Subretinally Injected OPGx-BEST1 in Patients With Best Vitelliform Macular Dystrophy (BVMD) or Autosomal-Recessive Bestrophinopathy (ARB) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Sale | 28,000 @ $4.54 | $127K | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 556,375 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Magrath George | director | Sale | 9,475 @ $2.95 | $28K | −0.5% of holding | +35.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,731,869 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Sale | 7,783 @ $2.95 | $23K | −1.3% of holding | +35.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 584,375 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | YERXA BENJAMIN R | director | Sale | 7,429 @ $2.97 | $22K | −1.0% of holding | +35.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 704,106 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | SCHACHLE JOSEPH K | officer | Sale | 4,644 @ $2.94 | $14K | −1.6% of holding | +35.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 291,440 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Foundation Fighting Blindness Retinal Degeneration Fund | director | Sale | 1,700,000 @ $4.35 | $7.4M | −31.0% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,792,171 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Magrath George | director | Sale | 9,511 @ $5.22 | $50K | −0.5% of holding | −23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,741,344 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Sale | 7,842 @ $5.18 | $41K | −1.3% of holding | −23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 592,158 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Jayagopal Ashwath | officer | Sale | 7,542 @ $5.19 | $39K | −1.5% of holding | −23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 509,233 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | YERXA BENJAMIN R | director | Sale | 7,470 @ $5.24 | $39K | −1.0% of holding | −23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 711,535 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | SCHACHLE JOSEPH K | officer | Sale | 4,697 @ $5.22 | $25K | −1.6% of holding | −23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 296,084 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Zaremba Rabourn Amy | officer | Sale | 1,641 @ $5.20 | $9K | −0.9% of holding | −23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 188,671 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Magrath George | director | Sale | 24,438 @ $5.21 | $127K | −1.4% of holding | +5.1% | −1.7% | 1,750,855 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | SCHACHLE JOSEPH K | officer | Sale | 3,719 @ $5.25 | $20K | −1.2% of holding | +5.1% | −1.7% | 300,781 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Jayagopal Ashwath | officer | Sale | 3,719 @ $5.12 | $19K | −0.7% of holding | +5.1% | −1.7% | 516,775 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Zaremba Rabourn Amy | officer | Sale | 2,816 @ $5.25 | $15K | −1.5% of holding | +5.1% | −1.7% | 190,312 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Gallagher Cam | director | Purchase | 83,000 @ $1.97 | $163K | ownership Δ n/a | +24.7% | +101.1% | 83,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Gallagher Cam | director | Purchase | 81,000 @ $1.98 | $160K | +4.5% of holding | +24.7% | +101.1% | 1,891,430 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Foundation Fighting Blindness Retinal Degeneration Fund | director | Sale | 4,000,000 @ $2.15 | $8.6M | −42.1% of holding | −21.2% | +55.0% | 5,492,171 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-26 | Magrath George | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $0.98 | $98K | +20.0% of holding | −0.1% | −16.3% | 599,150 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
84 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Magrath George | director | Option exercise | 392,157 | 2,124,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Magrath George | director | Withheld for tax | 75,541 | 2,048,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Magrath George | director | Option exercise | 392,157 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Gallagher Cam | director | Option exercise | 784,314 | 2,800,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Gallagher Cam | director | Option exercise | 784,314 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Ainsworth Sean | director | Award / grant | 24,367 | 321,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Graves Adrienne L | director | Award / grant | 24,367 | 127,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Gallagher Cam | director | Award / grant | 24,367 | 2,015,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Bennett Jean | director | Award / grant | 24,367 | 259,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | MANUSO JAMES S J | director | Award / grant | 24,367 | 317,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Benton Susan | director | Award / grant | 24,367 | 243,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Rodgers Richard J | director | Award / grant | 24,367 | 343,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Jayagopal Ashwath | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,313 | 520,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Magrath George | director | Award / grant | 483,639 | 1,775,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Jayagopal Ashwath | officer | Award / grant | 400,000 | 525,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 600,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | SCHACHLE JOSEPH K | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 304,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | YERXA BENJAMIN R | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 719,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Zaremba Rabourn Amy | officer | Award / grant | 86,500 | 193,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-18 | Zaremba Rabourn Amy | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,390 | 106,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-10 | Zaremba Rabourn Amy | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,950 | 110,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Gallagher Cam | director | Award / grant | 67,000 | 1,991,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Ainsworth Sean | director | Award / grant | 42,507 | 297,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Bennett Jean | director | Award / grant | 21,127 | 234,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Ainsworth Sean | director | Award / grant | 42,507 | 297,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Graves Adrienne L | director | Award / grant | 23,643 | 103,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | MANUSO JAMES S J | director | Award / grant | 31,188 | 292,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Bennett Jean | director | Award / grant | 21,127 | 234,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Graves Adrienne L | director | Award / grant | 23,643 | 103,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | MANUSO JAMES S J | director | Award / grant | 31,188 | 292,951 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Gallagher Cam | director | Award / grant | 33,000 | 1,924,430 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Magrath George | director | Withheld for tax | 30,350 | 1,291,654 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-22 | YERXA BENJAMIN R | director | Withheld for tax | 23,795 | 319,005 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Gagnon Robert E. | director | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-25 | Gallagher Cam | director | Award / grant | 869,565 | 1,810,430 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-25 | Ainsworth Sean | director | Award / grant | 86,956 | 254,818 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Foundation Fighting Blindness Retinal Degeneration Fund | director | Conversion | 6,927,419 | 9,492,171 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Foundation Fighting Blindness Retinal Degeneration Fund | director | Conversion | 6,927 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Foundation Fighting Blindness Retinal Degeneration Fund | director | Conversion | 6,927,419 | 9,492,171 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.