Issued 2026-09-16 at $268.82 · now $268.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IQV has typically landed between $233.75 and $309.93 — a range of −13.0% to +15.3% from the issuance price $268.82.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,338 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-05-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($268.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IQV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $268.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $268.82 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $269.12 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $251.83–$286.41
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $233.75–$309.93
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −48.6% | −48.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −45.7% | −45.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −44.9% | −45.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +49.5% | +0.0% | +56.6% |
| 2020-03-18 | +46.4% | −6.5% | +46.4% |
| 2020-03-19 | +40.7% | −7.3% | +45.2% |
3,338 overlapping windows · 2013-05-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$245.50
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$221.44
- Analyst target · range $185.00–$250.00$240.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$268.82
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Berkshire James G. | officer | Sale | 2,668 @ $261.33 | $697K | −19.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,890 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | STAUB W RICHARD | officer | Sale | 5,500 @ $232.68 | $1.3M | −29.2% of holding | +10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,312 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Patel Bhavik | officer | Sale | 1,855 @ $235.27 | $436K | −57.9% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,348 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Sale | 53,191 @ $244.78 | $13.0M | −5.7% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 885,868 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Sale | 44,039 @ $246.08 | $10.8M | −4.5% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 939,059 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Sherbet Eric | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $249.16 | $1.2M | −19.2% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,999 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Sale | 4,584 @ $246.85 | $1.1M | −0.5% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 983,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Sale | 4,465 @ $247.10 | $1.1M | −0.5% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 987,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Cherofsky Keriann | officer | Sale | 558 @ $245.21 | $137K | −15.7% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,989 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Sale | 36,564 @ $222.43 | $8.1M | −4.3% of holding | +6.9% | −32.4% | 820,599 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Sale | 26,128 @ $221.31 | $5.8M | −3.0% of holding | +6.2% | −33.0% | 832,171 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Sale | 13,741 @ $219.29 | $3.0M | −1.6% of holding | +6.2% | −33.0% | 862,899 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Sale | 7,315 @ $218.32 | $1.6M | −0.8% of holding | +6.2% | −33.0% | 876,640 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Sale | 4,600 @ $220.11 | $1.0M | −0.5% of holding | +6.2% | −33.0% | 858,299 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Sale | 3,973 @ $221.97 | $882K | −0.5% of holding | +6.2% | −33.0% | 828,198 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Sherbet Eric | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $219.70 | $879K | −12.9% of holding | +6.2% | −33.0% | 27,108 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Sale | 800 @ $217.58 | $174K | −0.1% of holding | +6.2% | −33.0% | 883,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Sherbet Eric | officer | Sale | 5,800 @ $190.05 | $1.1M | −17.6% of holding | −4.8% | +13.8% | 27,178 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Cherofsky Keriann | officer | Sale | 549 @ $191.53 | $105K | −15.9% of holding | −4.8% | +13.8% | 2,910 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | DANHAKL JOHN G | director | Purchase | 1,275 @ $200.58 | $256K | ownership Δ n/a | +0.1% | −23.9% | 1,275 | Form 4 · filed 66 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
126 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Berkshire James G. | officer | Disposition | 2,713 | 8,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Berkshire James G. | officer | Option exercise | 5,381 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Berkshire James G. | officer | Option exercise | 5,381 | 13,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Option exercise | 156,206 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Option exercise | 156,206 | 992,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Disposition | 47,858 | 838,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Disposition | 2,069 | 835,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Fasano Jim | director | Award / grant | 195 | 6,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | GOGGINS COLLEEN A | director | Award / grant | 183 | 5,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | DANHAKL JOHN G | director | Award / grant | 160 | 3,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wims Morris Leslie | director | Award / grant | 148 | 6,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Fasano Jim | director | Award / grant | 228 | 6,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | GOGGINS COLLEEN A | director | Award / grant | 214 | 5,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | DANHAKL JOHN G | director | Award / grant | 185 | 3,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Wims Morris Leslie | director | Award / grant | 171 | 6,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Kaelin William G Jr | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 1,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Wims Morris Leslie | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 6,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Stamps Sheila A | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 4,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Fasano Jim | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 5,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | LEONARD JOHN M | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 16,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | GOGGINS COLLEEN A | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 14,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Burt Carol | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 7,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | DANHAKL JOHN G | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 30,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Fedock Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 123 | 9,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Haas Bernd | officer | Withheld for tax | 20 | 24,394 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Fasano Jim | director | Award / grant | 211 | 4,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | GOGGINS COLLEEN A | director | Award / grant | 198 | 4,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | DANHAKL JOHN G | director | Award / grant | 172 | 2,944 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Wims Morris Leslie | director | Award / grant | 159 | 4,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Sherbet Eric | officer | Award / grant | 12,112 | 12,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | STAUB W RICHARD | officer | Award / grant | 26,088 | 26,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Cherofsky Keriann | officer | Award / grant | 2,795 | 2,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Berkshire James G. | officer | Award / grant | 11,180 | 11,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Award / grant | 78,264 | 78,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Fedock Michael J. | officer | Award / grant | 18,634 | 18,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Grenfell Alistair | officer | Award / grant | 26,088 | 26,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Haas Bernd | officer | Award / grant | 11,180 | 11,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Patel Bhavik | officer | Award / grant | 11,180 | 11,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-08 | BOUSBIB ARI | director | Withheld for tax | 28,399 | 835,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-08 | Bruehlman Ronald E | director | Withheld for tax | 6,801 | 44,103 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Kevin Hern | House | sale | 2026-04-03 | 2026-03-16 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | purchase | 2026-01-16 | 2025-12-29 | $15–50K |
| John Boozman | Senate | sale | 2025-11-15 | 2025-10-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-31 | 2025-05-15 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.