IPInternational Paper CompanyConsumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.06 · now $34.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IP has typically landed between $29.53 and $39.19 — a range of −13.3% to +15.1% from the issuance price $34.06.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where IP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$29.53worst · -13.3%$39.19best · +15.1%
  • now $34.06 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.16 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.11–$36.21
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.53–$39.19
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-01-29−49.8%−49.8%+0.0%
2009-01-28−49.4%−49.4%+0.0%
2008-10-14−47.2%−47.2%+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-08+100.0%+0.0%+100.0%
2009-04-07+92.6%+0.0%+106.5%
2009-03-05+91.3%−1.5%+120.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$22.3B
market cap
$-6.36
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$24.9B
'20'25
Net income−$3.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$159M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-14.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-23.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.73
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $34.06$28.17$49.47
  • DCF (intrinsic)$29.64
  • Analyst target · range $40.00–$48.00$44.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$34.06

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+0.8%
n=18
Feb
42%
−1.7%
n=19
Mar
47%
+0.5%
n=19
Apr
58%
+3.2%
n=19
May
58%
+2.2%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.6%
n=19
Jul
68%
+5.3%
n=19
Aug
42%
+0.0%
n=19
Sep
37%
−2.9%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.6%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.7%
n=18
Dec
50%
−0.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$48$292026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Hamic William Thomas2026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $147K — Goughnour Holly G.2026-05-01: 1 insider purchase, $313K — Tozier Scott2026-03-12: 1 insider purchase, $500K — GUSTAFSSON ANDERS2026-03-11: 1 insider purchase, $500K — GUSTAFSSON ANDERS2026-01-30: 2 insider purchases, $3.0M — Silvernail Andrew K, Connor Christopher M2025-11-18: 1 insider sale, $693K — Ellis Clay R2025-09-16: 1 insider sale, $410K — Saab Joseph R.2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $410K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $693K2026-01: 2 open-market purchases, $3.0M2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $1.0M2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $313K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.2M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Hamic William Thomas — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Goughnour Holly G. — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed same daydirector Tozier Scott — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed same daydirector GUSTAFSSON ANDERS — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed same daydirector GUSTAFSSON ANDERS — Purchase on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Silvernail Andrew K — Purchase on 2026-01-30, filed same daydirector Connor Christopher M — Purchase on 2026-01-30, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Ellis Clay R — Sale on 2025-11-18, filed 29 days after the tradeofficer Saab Joseph R. — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Hamic William ThomasofficerSale24,500 @ $41.20$1.0M−18.6% of holding−11.3%not yet — horizon still open106,952Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-04Goughnour Holly G.officerSale3,500 @ $41.96$147K−9.3% of holding−13.4%not yet — horizon still open34,248Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-01Tozier ScottdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $31.30$313K+40000.0% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open10,025Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-12GUSTAFSSON ANDERSdirectorPurchase13,217 @ $37.83$500K+102.7% of holding−0.5%−17.5%26,092Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-11GUSTAFSSON ANDERSdirectorPurchase12,875 @ $38.84$500Kownership Δ n/a−6.3%−22.6%12,875Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-30Silvernail Andrew KdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $39.98$2.0Mownership Δ n/a+7.0%−4.7%50,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-30Connor Christopher MdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $40.37$1.0Mownership Δ n/a+7.0%−4.7%25,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-18Ellis Clay RofficerSale18,819 @ $36.85$693K−100.0% of holding+2.3%−26.8%0Form 4 · filed 29 days after the trade
2025-09-16Saab Joseph R.officerSale9,000 @ $45.53$410K−24.5% of holding+0.4%−21.4%27,673Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-05Goughnour Holly G.officerSale7,500 @ $44.85$336K−19.2% of holding+2.1%−36.9%31,525Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

73 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Hamic William ThomasofficerDiscretionary24,29139,570Form 4
2026-05-12ROBBIE DAVID A.directorWithheld for tax1,23312,769Form 4
2026-05-12Dorduncu Ahmet CdirectorWithheld for tax1,18644,207Form 4
2026-05-12Hinman Jacqueline C.directorAward / grant5,29877,512Form 4
2026-05-12ROBBIE DAVID A.directorAward / grant5,29814,002Form 4
2026-05-12Beggs Jamie A.directorAward / grant10,50626,863Form 4
2026-05-12Connor Christopher MdirectorAward / grant11,41494,749Form 4
2026-05-12Lewis Clinton A. Jr.directorAward / grant10,80987,679Form 4
2026-05-12GUSTAFSSON ANDERSdirectorAward / grant11,11266,746Form 4
2026-05-12Tozier ScottdirectorAward / grant5,29821,655Form 4
2026-05-12Vincent Anton V.directorAward / grant10,20354,013Form 4
2026-05-12Dorduncu Ahmet CdirectorAward / grant5,29845,393Form 4
2026-05-12SULLIVAN KATHRYN DdirectorAward / grant7,90153,777Form 4
2026-04-01Hamic William ThomasofficerWithheld for tax12,666131,452Form 4
2026-04-01Loeffler LancedirectorWithheld for tax2,70329,162Form 4
2026-04-01Goughnour Holly G.officerWithheld for tax1,27337,748Form 4
2026-02-09Nicholls Timothy SofficerAward / grant52,230295,873Form 4
2026-02-09Hamic William ThomasofficerAward / grant43,225159,430Form 4
2026-02-09Saab Joseph R.officerAward / grant24,31450,881Form 4
2026-02-09Nicholls Timothy SofficerWithheld for tax18,887276,986Form 4
2026-02-09Hamic William ThomasofficerWithheld for tax15,312144,118Form 4
2026-02-09Saab Joseph R.officerWithheld for tax7,26843,613Form 4
2026-02-09Goughnour Holly G.officerAward / grant6,33540,564Form 4
2026-02-09Goughnour Holly G.officerWithheld for tax1,54339,021Form 4
2026-02-01Hamic William ThomasofficerWithheld for tax1,406117,476Form 4
2026-02-01Hamic William ThomasofficerWithheld for tax1,271116,205Form 4
2026-02-01Saab Joseph R.officerWithheld for tax85726,567Form 4
2026-02-01Saab Joseph R.officerWithheld for tax75727,424Form 4
2026-02-01Goughnour Holly G.officerWithheld for tax48034,930Form 4
2026-02-01Goughnour Holly G.officerWithheld for tax44234,488Form 4
2026-02-01Nicholls Timothy SofficerWithheld for tax304246,421Form 4
2026-02-01Goughnour Holly G.officerWithheld for tax25934,229Form 4
2026-02-01Nicholls Timothy SofficerWithheld for tax136246,285Form 4
2026-01-05Flores Melissa SofficerAward / grant24,84524,845Form 4
2026-01-01Ellis Clay RofficerWithheld for tax5,52663,106Form 4
2026-01-01Goughnour Holly G.officerAward / grant3,88535,410Form 4
2025-05-13Dorduncu Ahmet CdirectorWithheld for tax1,26840,095Form 4
2025-05-13ROBBIE DAVID A.directorWithheld for tax3178,547Form 4
2025-05-12GUSTAFSSON ANDERSdirectorAward / grant8,17755,634Form 4
2025-05-12Lewis Clinton A. Jr.directorAward / grant8,06473,559Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-05-082026-04-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-03$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.