Issued 2026-09-25 at $11.00 · now $11.00 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, IOVA has typically landed between $7.72 and $16.48 — a range of −29.8% to +49.9% from the issuance price $11.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,974 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-10-15 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($11.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IOVA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.56 (-4.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.98–$12.14
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.72–$16.48
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2013-03-07 | −83.3% | −83.3% | +0.0% |
| 2013-03-08 | −83.3% | −83.3% | +0.0% |
| 2013-03-28 | −83.3% | −83.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2013-05-08 | +300.0% | +0.0% | +500.0% |
| 2013-07-18 | +250.0% | +0.0% | +250.0% |
| 2013-07-16 | +250.0% | +0.0% | +250.0% |
3,974 overlapping windows · 2010-10-15 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- September 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of an Infusion of IOV-4001 in Adult Participants With Unresectable or Metastatic Melanoma or Stage III or IV Non-small-cell Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-03-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study to Investigate Lifileucel Regimen Plus Pembrolizumab Compared With Pembrolizumab Alone in Participants With Untreated Advanced Melanoma. (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of Lifileucel (Tumor-infiltrating Lymphocytes) in Adults With Advanced Endometrial Cancer. (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Autologous LN-145 in Patients With Metastatic Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2032 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of IOV-3001 in Adults With Advanced Melanoma Who Will Receive Lifileucel (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2032 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of Lifileucel (Tumor-infiltrating Lymphocytes) in Adults With Advanced Melanoma (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-05 | Kirby Daniel Gordon | officer | Purchase | 30,000 @ $1.84 | $55K | ownership Δ n/a | −6.6% | +6.2% | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Puri Raj K. | officer | Purchase | 5,600 @ $1.74 | $10K | +2.8% of holding | −5.1% | +11.4% | 206,852 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Vogt Frederick G | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $1.69 | $42K | +7.2% of holding | +29.4% | +31.6% | 374,646 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-12 | Maynard Ryan D | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $10.06 | $503K | −87.0% of holding | −19.1% | −83.1% | 7,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-20 | Rothbaum Wayne P. | director | Purchase | 5,000,000 @ $9.15 | $45.8M | +21.7% of holding | +19.0% | −19.3% | 28,067,333 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-02-20 | MCPEAK MERRILL A | director | Purchase | 250,000 @ $9.15 | $2.3M | +356.4% of holding | +19.0% | −19.3% | 320,150 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-02-20 | Dukes Iain D. | director | Purchase | 32,000 @ $9.15 | $293K | +145.5% of holding | +19.0% | −19.3% | 54,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
291 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Vogt Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 6,638 | 595,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Puri Raj K. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,478 | 256,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | BILINSKY IGOR | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,976 | 142,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Puri Raj K. | officer | Option exercise | 9,766 | 260,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | BILINSKY IGOR | officer | Option exercise | 7,813 | 146,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Vogt Frederick G | director | Option exercise | 15,626 | 602,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Vogt Frederick G | director | Option exercise | 15,626 | 93,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Puri Raj K. | officer | Option exercise | 9,766 | 58,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | BILINSKY IGOR | officer | Option exercise | 7,813 | 46,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Vogt Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 17,702 | 586,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | BILINSKY IGOR | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,472 | 138,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Puri Raj K. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,508 | 251,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Puri Raj K. | officer | Option exercise | 5,470 | 10,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Puri Raj K. | officer | Option exercise | 5,470 | 253,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Vogt Frederick G | director | Option exercise | 41,669 | 83,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Vogt Frederick G | director | Option exercise | 41,669 | 604,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | BILINSKY IGOR | officer | Option exercise | 8,789 | 17,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | BILINSKY IGOR | officer | Option exercise | 8,789 | 142,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kirby Daniel Gordon | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,436 | 154,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kirby Daniel Gordon | officer | Option exercise | 10,001 | 60,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kirby Daniel Gordon | officer | Option exercise | 10,001 | 156,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Roche Corleen M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,238 | 28,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Roche Corleen M. | officer | Option exercise | 49,995 | 49,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Roche Corleen M. | officer | Option exercise | 49,995 | 100,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Dukes Iain D. | director | Award / grant | 180,632 | 180,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Countouriotis Athena | director | Award / grant | 90,316 | 90,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | WEISER MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 90,316 | 90,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Maynard Ryan D | director | Award / grant | 90,316 | 90,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Puri Raj K. | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Vogt Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 6,638 | 562,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | GRAF FINCKENSTEIN FRIEDRICH | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,976 | 140,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | BILINSKY IGOR | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,976 | 133,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Puri Raj K. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,843 | 248,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Puri Raj K. | officer | Option exercise | 9,766 | 68,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | BILINSKY IGOR | officer | Option exercise | 7,813 | 137,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | BILINSKY IGOR | officer | Option exercise | 7,813 | 54,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | GRAF FINCKENSTEIN FRIEDRICH | officer | Option exercise | 7,813 | 144,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | GRAF FINCKENSTEIN FRIEDRICH | officer | Option exercise | 7,813 | 54,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Puri Raj K. | officer | Option exercise | 9,766 | 251,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Vogt Frederick G | director | Option exercise | 15,625 | 109,382 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.