Issued 2026-09-16 at $40.66 · now $40.66 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IOT has typically landed between $30.43 and $53.68 — a range of −25.2% to +32.0% from the issuance price $40.66.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,171 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-12-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($40.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IOT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $40.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $40.66 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.14 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.11–$46.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $30.43–$53.68
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,171 windows spanning 2021-12-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-12-28 | −41.5% | −41.5% | +2.1% |
| 2021-12-27 | −41.2% | −41.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-10 | −40.1% | −40.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-12 | +59.8% | −2.5% | +59.8% |
| 2023-05-11 | +56.4% | −3.2% | +56.4% |
| 2023-05-05 | +55.8% | +0.0% | +55.8% |
1,171 overlapping windows · 2021-12-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−7.0%
n=5
Feb
60%
+4.9%
n=5
Mar
60%
+1.9%
n=5
Apr
20%
−9.0%
n=5
May
60%
+6.8%
n=5
Jun
20%
+4.1%
n=5
Jul
80%
+10.9%
n=5
Aug
60%
+2.5%
n=5
Sep
40%
−1.4%
n=5
Oct
50%
+0.2%
n=4
Nov
50%
+0.8%
n=4
Dec
50%
+6.6%
n=4
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Phillips Dominic | director | Sale | 17,909 @ $44.25 | $793K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,019,363 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Phillips Dominic | director | Sale | 11,710 @ $44.25 | $518K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 836,100 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Eltoukhy Adam | officer | Sale | 6,876 @ $39.82 | $274K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 425,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 35,266 @ $39.43 | $1.4M | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 935,771 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 34,557 @ $39.44 | $1.4M | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,134,795 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 100 @ $40.08 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 935,671 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 49,625 @ $39.61 | $2.0M | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 998,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 48,341 @ $39.59 | $1.9M | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,198,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 28,687 @ $40.37 | $1.2M | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,169,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 27,061 @ $40.38 | $1.1M | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 971,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 15,892 @ $40.18 | $639K | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 271,545 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 15,752 @ $40.18 | $633K | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 271,741 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 641 @ $40.66 | $26K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 271,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 445 @ $40.70 | $18K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 271,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 87,448 @ $39.92 | $3.5M | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,255,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 85,002 @ $39.91 | $3.4M | −7.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,058,669 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 26,363 @ $39.94 | $1.1M | −8.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 290,037 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 25,706 @ $39.93 | $1.0M | −8.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 290,694 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 10,946 @ $40.44 | $443K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,047,723 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 9,700 @ $40.07 | $389K | −13.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 63,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 8,967 @ $40.48 | $363K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,246,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 7,400 @ $39.97 | $296K | −10.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 65,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 3,201 @ $40.45 | $129K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 287,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 3,200 @ $40.45 | $129K | −4.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 2,600 @ $40.49 | $105K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 287,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Kirchhoff Benjamin Louis | officer | Sale | 989 @ $39.50 | $39K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 159,186 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 900 @ $40.60 | $37K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Kirchhoff Benjamin Louis | officer | Sale | 2,625 @ $39.31 | $103K | −1.6% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,175 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 57,267 @ $37.89 | $2.2M | −4.1% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,342,795 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 56,690 @ $37.89 | $2.1M | −4.7% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,144,071 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 400 @ $38.27 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,143,671 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 65,819 @ $38.61 | $2.5M | −4.5% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,403,693 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 65,775 @ $38.60 | $2.5M | −5.2% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,204,665 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 16,669 @ $38.58 | $643K | −5.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 317,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 16,273 @ $38.57 | $628K | −4.9% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 317,781 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 3,904 @ $39.31 | $153K | −0.3% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,200,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 3,631 @ $39.31 | $143K | −0.3% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,400,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 1,381 @ $39.37 | $54K | −0.4% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 316,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 960 @ $39.37 | $38K | −0.3% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 316,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 77,678 @ $38.40 | $3.0M | −5.0% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,469,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 77,590 @ $38.40 | $3.0M | −5.8% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,270,440 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 25,546 @ $38.42 | $981K | −7.1% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 334,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 25,352 @ $38.42 | $974K | −7.1% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 334,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 9,200 @ $38.15 | $351K | −11.2% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 8,960 @ $38.17 | $342K | −11.0% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 3,641 @ $37.61 | $137K | −0.3% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,348,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 3,605 @ $37.61 | $136K | −0.2% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,547,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 2,319 @ $37.78 | $88K | −0.6% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 359,381 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $37.76 | $79K | −0.6% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 359,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 1,640 @ $37.68 | $62K | −2.0% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,760 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $37.65 | $53K | −1.7% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Phillips Dominic | director | Sale | 17,003 @ $37.58 | $639K | −1.6% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,049,887 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Phillips Dominic | director | Sale | 11,110 @ $37.58 | $418K | −1.3% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 836,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Phillips Dominic | director | Sale | 905 @ $38.37 | $35K | −0.1% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,048,982 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Phillips Dominic | director | Sale | 600 @ $38.40 | $23K | −0.1% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 836,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Eltoukhy Adam | officer | Sale | 3,653 @ $37.00 | $135K | −0.9% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 425,080 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Eltoukhy Adam | officer | Sale | 2,214 @ $34.44 | $76K | −0.5% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 426,519 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Eltoukhy Adam | officer | Sale | 1,439 @ $35.73 | $51K | −0.3% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 425,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Sale | 53,436 @ $33.74 | $1.8M | −3.8% of holding | +14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,359,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Bicket John | director | Sale | 53,378 @ $33.74 | $1.8M | −3.3% of holding | +14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,558,769 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
53 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Conversion | 305,000 | 58,006,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Conversion | 305,000 | 1,310,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Gift | 305,000 | 1,005,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Eltoukhy Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,602 | 405,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Phillips Dominic | director | Withheld for tax | 8,324 | 819,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Kirchhoff Benjamin Louis | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,651 | 155,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | LIVERMORE ANN M | director | Award / grant | 7,801 | 245,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Henry Alyssa | director | Award / grant | 7,801 | 28,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Steele Gary | director | Award / grant | 7,801 | 21,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Chadwick Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 7,801 | 51,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Bluedorn Todd M | director | Award / grant | 7,801 | 36,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Andreessen Marc L | director | Award / grant | 7,801 | 7,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | director | Conversion | 1,992,669 | 2,197,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | director | Conversion | 430,000 | 452,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | director | Gift | 230,303 | 1,966,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Conversion | 430,000 | 15,867,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Conversion | 100,000 | 104,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Gift | 230,303 | 1,767,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Conversion | 1,540,755 | 64,193,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Conversion | 1,540,755 | 1,997,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Conversion | 100,000 | 3,790,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | director | Conversion | 430,000 | 15,867,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | director | Conversion | 100,000 | 4,132,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | director | Conversion | 1,992,669 | 61,860,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | director | Conversion | 100,000 | 104,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Conversion | 430,000 | 452,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Phillips Dominic | director | Withheld for tax | 38,963 | 836,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Eltoukhy Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,133 | 425,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kirchhoff Benjamin Louis | officer | Withheld for tax | 937 | 169,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Eltoukhy Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,602 | 449,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Phillips Dominic | director | Withheld for tax | 8,324 | 913,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kirchhoff Benjamin Louis | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,487 | 170,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Phillips Dominic | director | Award / grant | 570 | 930,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Kirchhoff Benjamin Louis | officer | Award / grant | 61,538 | 173,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Award / grant | 317,515 | 1,656,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-09 | Phillips Dominic | director | Award / grant | 181,390 | 929,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-09 | Bicket John | director | Award / grant | 136,566 | 552,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-09 | Eltoukhy Adam | officer | Award / grant | 108,426 | 468,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Biswas Sanjit | director | Award / grant | 646,153 | 1,339,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Phillips Dominic | director | Award / grant | 285,384 | 748,185 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.