Issued 2026-09-25 at $44.50 · now $44.50 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, IONS has typically landed between $37.85 and $52.76 — a range of −14.9% to +18.6% from the issuance price $44.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,010 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($44.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IONS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $44.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $44.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $44.89 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $42.02–$47.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.85–$52.76
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2016-04-27 | −48.4% | −48.4% | +0.0% |
| 2016-04-28 | −46.3% | −47.9% | +0.0% |
| 2016-04-29 | −44.6% | −47.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-10-27 | +78.1% | +0.0% | +87.5% |
| 2016-10-28 | +77.3% | −0.4% | +84.6% |
| 2016-11-04 | +74.9% | +0.0% | +77.5% |
5,010 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Assess the Long-Term Safety and Efficacy of Donidalorsen in the Prophylactic Treatment of Hereditary Angioedema (HAE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: PrProfile: A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of ION717 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: CORE-OLE: A Study of Olezarsen (ISIS 678354) Administered Subcutaneously to Participants With Severe Hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of Olezarsen (Formerly Known as AKCEA-APOCIII-LRX) Administered to Adults With Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome (FCS) Previously Treated With Volanesorsen (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: REVEAL: A Phase 3 Study of Obudanersen (ION582) in Angelman Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- September 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: ATTUNE: A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of Intrathecally-Administered ION440 in Participants With Methyl CpG Binding Protein 2 (MECP2) Duplication Syndrome (MDS) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- September 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of ION775 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of Olezarsen (Formerly Known as AKCEA-APOCIII-LRx) in Participants With Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome (FCS) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: HALOS: A Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics Study of Multiple Ascending Doses of ION582 in Participants With Angelman Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Donidalorsen Treatment in Children With Hereditary Angioedema (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: An Extension Study to Assess Long-Term Safety of Eplontersen in Adults With Transthyretin-Mediated Amyloid Cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Assess the Long-Term Safety and Efficacy of Eplontersen (Formerly Known as ION-682884, IONIS-TTR-LRx and AKCEA-TTR-LRx) in Patients With Hereditary Transthyretin-Mediated Amyloid Polyneuropathy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Hayden Michael R | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $51.60 | $258K | +26.3% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-30 | Hayden Michael R | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $53.38 | $801K | +375.0% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | BENNETT C FRANK | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $85.46 | $1.3M | −100.0% of holding | −40.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Diaz Allene M. | director | Sale | 10,111 @ $85.42 | $864K | −72.6% of holding | −40.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,811 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | BENNETT C FRANK | officer | Sale | 5,536 @ $83.58 | $463K | −6.9% of holding | −40.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Kordasiewicz Holly B. | officer | Sale | 362 @ $84.30 | $31K | −1.6% of holding | −40.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Sale | 11,419 @ $79.04 | $903K | −50.9% of holding | −34.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,014 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Sale | 99 @ $79.45 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | −34.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,433 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Monia Brett P | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $80.59 | $4.0M | −16.9% of holding | −33.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 245,571 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Schneider Eugene | officer | Sale | 26,000 @ $81.05 | $2.1M | −25.2% of holding | −33.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,114 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Baroldi Joseph | officer | Sale | 5,635 @ $80.16 | $452K | −54.7% of holding | −33.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,669 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | O'NEIL PATRICK R. | officer | Sale | 3,069 @ $80.00 | $246K | −4.8% of holding | −33.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,470 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Monia Brett P | director | Sale | 21,072 @ $78.49 | $1.7M | −7.9% of holding | −29.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 245,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Swayze Eric | officer | Sale | 10,602 @ $79.18 | $839K | −32.8% of holding | −29.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,759 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Monia Brett P | director | Sale | 14,565 @ $78.41 | $1.1M | −5.6% of holding | −26.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 245,571 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERTHELSEN SPENCER R | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $73.49 | $588K | −4.9% of holding | −25.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 156,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Kordasiewicz Holly B. | officer | Sale | 41,004 @ $73.09 | $3.0M | −49.2% of holding | −27.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,300 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Kordasiewicz Holly B. | officer | Sale | 19,842 @ $74.05 | $1.5M | −46.9% of holding | −27.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,458 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | BERTHELSEN SPENCER R | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $75.67 | $605K | −4.9% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 156,013 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Monia Brett P | director | Sale | 3,220 @ $78.68 | $253K | −1.3% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Monia Brett P | director | Sale | 1,316 @ $78.01 | $103K | −0.5% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,662 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | LOSCALZO JOSEPH | director | Sale | 59,508 @ $74.90 | $4.5M | −52.4% of holding | −7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,111 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | LOSCALZO JOSEPH | director | Sale | 17,781 @ $75.58 | $1.3M | −32.9% of holding | −7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Sale | 8,680 @ $73.35 | $637K | −41.1% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,445 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Sale | 1,431 @ $74.45 | $107K | −11.5% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,014 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Baroldi Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,626 @ $71.79 | $117K | −3.5% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,909 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Baroldi Joseph | officer | Sale | 5,619 @ $74.56 | $419K | −10.8% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,535 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Jenne Kyle | officer | Sale | 4,902 @ $75.17 | $368K | −17.1% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,713 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Birchler Brian | officer | Sale | 973 @ $75.04 | $73K | −1.4% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | PARSHALL B LYNNE | director | Sale | 4,466 @ $76.19 | $340K | −7.9% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,878 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | PARSHALL B LYNNE | director | Sale | 534 @ $76.97 | $41K | −1.0% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Devers Shannon L. | officer | Sale | 6,193 @ $74.05 | $459K | −27.5% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,348 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-01 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Sale | 20,105 @ $75.50 | $1.5M | −60.3% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,230 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Sale | 2,216 @ $75.95 | $168K | −16.7% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,014 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Schneider Eugene | officer | Sale | 5,812 @ $70.97 | $412K | −8.3% of holding | −2.7% | −53.7% | 63,890 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | HOUGEN ELIZABETH L | director | Sale | 10,172 @ $73.21 | $745K | −11.0% of holding | −0.8% | −50.7% | 82,660 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | HOUGEN ELIZABETH L | director | Sale | 205,608 @ $72.38 | $14.9M | −66.8% of holding | +1.3% | −48.2% | 102,272 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | HOUGEN ELIZABETH L | director | Sale | 9,440 @ $72.77 | $687K | −9.2% of holding | +1.3% | −48.2% | 92,832 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Jenne Kyle | officer | Sale | 21,191 @ $75.50 | $1.6M | −43.3% of holding | +0.3% | −39.1% | 27,800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Monia Brett P | director | Sale | 17,591 @ $76.34 | $1.3M | −6.8% of holding | +0.3% | −39.1% | 242,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Monia Brett P | director | Sale | 16,512 @ $75.47 | $1.2M | −6.0% of holding | +0.3% | −39.1% | 260,253 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Jenne Kyle | officer | Sale | 16,086 @ $76.30 | $1.2M | −57.9% of holding | +0.3% | −39.1% | 11,714 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Monia Brett P | director | Sale | 117,604 @ $75.26 | $8.9M | −32.5% of holding | −0.4% | −38.3% | 244,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | O'NEIL PATRICK R. | officer | Sale | 10,148 @ $75.25 | $764K | −14.0% of holding | −0.4% | −38.3% | 62,211 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Monia Brett P | director | Sale | 7,382 @ $74.11 | $547K | −2.0% of holding | −0.4% | −38.3% | 361,950 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Monia Brett P | director | Sale | 1,684 @ $75.58 | $127K | −0.7% of holding | −0.4% | −38.3% | 242,662 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Baroldi Joseph | officer | Sale | 238 @ $80.00 | $19K | −5.2% of holding | −1.8% | −35.1% | 4,347 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Baroldi Joseph | officer | Sale | 201 @ $80.00 | $16K | −4.4% of holding | −1.8% | −35.1% | 4,347 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | LOSCALZO JOSEPH | director | Sale | 200 @ $80.00 | $16K | −0.5% of holding | −1.8% | −35.1% | 36,330 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | BENNETT C FRANK | officer | Sale | 71,600 @ $79.10 | $5.7M | −43.2% of holding | −1.1% | −36.4% | 94,043 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Diaz Allene M. | director | Sale | 39,265 @ $79.11 | $3.1M | −66.9% of holding | −1.1% | −36.4% | 19,424 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Diaz Allene M. | director | Sale | 14,608 @ $79.88 | $1.2M | −75.2% of holding | −1.1% | −36.4% | 4,816 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Devers Shannon L. | officer | Sale | 14,321 @ $79.11 | $1.1M | −33.6% of holding | −1.1% | −36.4% | 28,326 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Sale | 13,526 @ $79.17 | $1.1M | −41.8% of holding | −1.1% | −36.4% | 18,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | BENNETT C FRANK | officer | Sale | 12,687 @ $79.88 | $1.0M | −13.5% of holding | −1.1% | −36.4% | 81,356 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Sale | 6,794 @ $80.00 | $543K | −36.1% of holding | −1.1% | −36.4% | 12,026 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Devers Shannon L. | officer | Sale | 5,030 @ $80.00 | $402K | −17.8% of holding | −1.1% | −36.4% | 23,296 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Baroldi Joseph | officer | Sale | 4,096 @ $79.36 | $325K | −9.0% of holding | −1.1% | −36.4% | 41,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Baroldi Joseph | officer | Sale | 2,088 @ $80.41 | $168K | −32.3% of holding | −1.1% | −36.4% | 4,383 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Sale | 1,012 @ $80.82 | $82K | −8.4% of holding | −1.1% | −36.4% | 11,014 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
205 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | BENNETT C FRANK | officer | Other acquisition | 110 | 60,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Monia Brett P | director | Other acquisition | 98 | 242,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | O'NEIL PATRICK R. | officer | Other acquisition | 63 | 59,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Birchler Brian | officer | Other acquisition | 58 | 102,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | BERTHELSEN SPENCER R | director | Option exercise | 5,220 | 161,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | BERTHELSEN SPENCER R | director | Option exercise | 5,220 | 2,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | HERMAN JOAN E | director | Option exercise | 5,220 | 51,306 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Reikes Peter N | director | Award / grant | 3,399 | 3,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | HERMAN JOAN E | director | Option exercise | 5,220 | 2,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | HANTSON LUDWIG | director | Award / grant | 3,399 | 3,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Diaz Allene M. | director | Option exercise | 10,111 | 13,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | BENNETT C FRANK | officer | Other acquisition | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Diaz Allene M. | director | Option exercise | 10,111 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | BENNETT C FRANK | officer | Other acquisition | 15,000 | 12,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Option exercise | 11,518 | 22,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LOSCALZO JOSEPH | director | Award / grant | 2,301 | 7,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Hayden Michael R | director | Award / grant | 2,301 | 12,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Award / grant | 2,301 | 16,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | YANG MICHAEL J. | director | Award / grant | 2,301 | 9,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | BERTHELSEN SPENCER R | director | Award / grant | 2,301 | 7,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Hayden Michael R | director | Award / grant | 5,369 | 5,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | HERMAN JOAN E | director | Award / grant | 5,369 | 5,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Diaz Allene M. | director | Award / grant | 2,301 | 7,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | YANG MICHAEL J. | director | Award / grant | 5,369 | 5,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | BERTHELSEN SPENCER R | director | Award / grant | 5,369 | 5,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | HERMAN JOAN E | director | Award / grant | 2,301 | 7,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Option exercise | 11,518 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | KLEIN JOSEPH III | director | Award / grant | 5,369 | 5,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Diaz Allene M. | director | Award / grant | 5,369 | 5,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LOSCALZO JOSEPH | director | Award / grant | 5,369 | 5,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Monia Brett P | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 295,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Schneider Eugene | officer | Option exercise | 26,000 | 103,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Baroldi Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 3,866 | 8,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Baroldi Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 1,769 | 10,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Monia Brett P | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 99,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Baroldi Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 1,769 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Schneider Eugene | officer | Option exercise | 26,000 | 26,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Baroldi Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 3,866 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Monia Brett P | director | Option exercise | 21,072 | 266,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Monia Brett P | director | Option exercise | 21,072 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.