Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.33 · now $29.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, INVX has typically landed between $24.97 and $35.16 — a range of −14.9% to +19.9% from the issuance price $29.33.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
503 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-08-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where INVX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $29.33 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $30.49 (+3.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.51–$32.46
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.97–$35.16
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-10 | −26.7% | −26.7% | +2.2% |
| 2024-11-22 | −25.8% | −28.7% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-20 | −25.8% | −25.8% | +4.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-12-20 | +34.1% | +0.0% | +38.3% |
| 2026-07-06 | +34.0% | +0.0% | +34.0% |
| 2024-12-16 | +33.5% | −3.2% | +33.7% |
503 overlapping windows · 2024-08-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Amberjack Capital Partners, L.P. | director | Sale | 3,706,801 @ $28.71 | $106.4M | −22.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,164,573 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | INNOVEX CO-INVEST FUND, L.P. | director | Sale | 3,706,801 @ $28.71 | $106.4M | −22.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,164,573 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | INNOVEX CO-INVEST FUND, L.P. | director | Sale | 865,508 @ $28.71 | $24.8M | −22.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,073,822 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Amberjack Capital Partners, L.P. | director | Sale | 865,508 @ $28.71 | $24.8M | −22.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,073,822 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Amberjack Capital Partners, L.P. | director | Sale | 205,126 @ $28.71 | $5.9M | −22.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 728,498 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | INNOVEX CO-INVEST FUND, L.P. | director | Sale | 205,126 @ $28.71 | $5.9M | −22.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 728,498 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | INNOVEX CO-INVEST FUND, L.P. | director | Sale | 176,944 @ $28.71 | $5.1M | −22.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 628,411 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Amberjack Capital Partners, L.P. | director | Sale | 176,944 @ $28.71 | $5.1M | −22.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 628,411 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Amberjack Capital Partners, L.P. | director | Sale | 45,533 @ $28.71 | $1.3M | −22.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 161,707 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | INNOVEX CO-INVEST FUND, L.P. | director | Sale | 45,533 @ $28.71 | $1.3M | +39.2% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 161,707 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | INNOVEX CO-INVEST FUND, L.P. | director | Sale | 88 @ $28.71 | $3K | −22.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 311 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Amberjack Capital Partners, L.P. | director | Sale | 88 @ $28.71 | $3K | −22.1% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 311 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Reddout Mark | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $30.00 | $300K | −7.4% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,312 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Reddout Mark | officer | Sale | 10,750 @ $28.00 | $301K | −7.4% of holding | −12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,312 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | INNOVEX CO-INVEST FUND, L.P. | director | Sale | 4,902,244 @ $24.59 | $120.6M | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +1.5% | 16,871,374 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Amberjack Capital Partners, L.P. | director | Sale | 4,902,244 @ $24.59 | $120.6M | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +1.5% | 16,871,374 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | INNOVEX CO-INVEST FUND, L.P. | director | Sale | 1,144,635 @ $24.59 | $28.1M | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +1.5% | 3,939,330 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Amberjack Capital Partners, L.P. | director | Sale | 1,144,635 @ $24.59 | $28.1M | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +1.5% | 3,939,330 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | INNOVEX CO-INVEST FUND, L.P. | director | Sale | 271,279 @ $24.59 | $6.7M | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +1.5% | 933,624 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Amberjack Capital Partners, L.P. | director | Sale | 271,279 @ $24.59 | $6.7M | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +1.5% | 933,624 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | INNOVEX CO-INVEST FUND, L.P. | director | Sale | 234,009 @ $24.59 | $5.8M | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +1.5% | 805,355 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Amberjack Capital Partners, L.P. | director | Sale | 234,009 @ $24.59 | $5.8M | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +1.5% | 805,355 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | INNOVEX CO-INVEST FUND, L.P. | director | Sale | 60,217 @ $24.59 | $1.5M | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +1.5% | 207,240 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Amberjack Capital Partners, L.P. | director | Sale | 60,217 @ $24.59 | $1.5M | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +1.5% | 207,240 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | INNOVEX CO-INVEST FUND, L.P. | director | Sale | 116 @ $24.59 | $3K | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +1.5% | 399 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Amberjack Capital Partners, L.P. | director | Sale | 116 @ $24.59 | $3K | −22.5% of holding | −0.3% | +1.5% | 399 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Anderson Adam | director | Sale | 18,837 @ $28.50 | $537K | −3.9% of holding | −11.4% | −12.8% | 466,744 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Anderson Adam | director | Sale | 13,241 @ $27.00 | $358K | −2.7% of holding | −5.0% | −7.1% | 485,581 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Reddout Mark | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $25.00 | $500K | −13.4% of holding | +3.2% | −2.1% | 129,436 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Anderson Adam | director | Sale | 13,241 @ $25.00 | $331K | −2.6% of holding | +3.2% | −2.1% | 498,822 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Reed Kendal | officer | Purchase | 3,765 @ $13.28 | $50K | +2.1% of holding | +30.1% | +22.1% | 186,232 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
44 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Anderson Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 13,463 | 491,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | Reddout Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,049 | 119,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | Reed Kendal | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,049 | 209,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Anderson Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 8,929 | 505,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Reed Kendal | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,072 | 215,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Reddout Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,072 | 146,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Fink Benjamin Matthew | director | Award / grant | 5,465 | 21,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Anderson Adam | director | Award / grant | 47,438 | 514,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Reed Kendal | officer | Award / grant | 18,975 | 217,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Reddout Mark | officer | Award / grant | 18,975 | 148,411 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Sedita Angie | director | Award / grant | 5,465 | 29,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | LOVOI JOHN | director | Award / grant | 5,465 | 101,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Jupp Terence Bartlett | director | Award / grant | 5,465 | 89,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Black Bonnie S. | director | Award / grant | 5,465 | 35,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Anderson Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 23,232 | 512,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Reed Kendal | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,026 | 198,857 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Reed Kendal | officer | Withheld for tax | 16 | 206,883 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Reddout Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 16 | 149,436 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Anderson Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 16 | 535,295 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Reddout Mark | officer | Award / grant | 40 | 149,452 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Anderson Adam | director | Award / grant | 40 | 535,311 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Reed Kendal | officer | Award / grant | 40 | 206,899 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | Anderson Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 12,833 | 535,505 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | Reddout Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,033 | 151,279 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | Reed Kendal | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,033 | 208,726 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-30 | Reddout Mark | officer | Award / grant | 25,527 | 154,312 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-30 | Anderson Adam | director | Award / grant | 68,073 | 548,338 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-30 | Reed Kendal | officer | Award / grant | 25,527 | 211,759 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-17 | Fink Benjamin Matthew | director | Award / grant | 11,764 | 15,911 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-17 | Black Bonnie S. | director | Award / grant | 11,764 | 30,379 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-17 | Jupp Terence Bartlett | director | Award / grant | 11,764 | 84,367 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-17 | LOVOI JOHN | director | Award / grant | 11,764 | 95,962 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-17 | Lockhart Carri A. | director | Award / grant | 11,764 | 40,009 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-17 | Sedita Angie | director | Award / grant | 11,764 | 24,416 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Anderson Adam | director | Withheld for tax | 13,067 | 480,265 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Reddout Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,548 | 128,785 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Lockhart Carri A. | director | Award / grant | 1,901 | 28,245 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | LOVOI JOHN | director | Award / grant | 1,957 | 84,198 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Jupp Terence Bartlett | director | Award / grant | 2,013 | 72,603 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | LOVOI JOHN | director | Award / grant | 1,957 | 84,198 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.