INVHInvitation Homes Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Residentialas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.21 · now $27.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, INVH has typically landed between $24.73 and $29.58 — a range of −9.1% to +8.7% from the issuance price $27.21.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,398 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-02-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where INVH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$24.73worst · -9.1%$29.58best · +8.7%
  • now $27.21 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27.14 (-0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.1–$28.17
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.73–$29.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,398 windows spanning 2017-02-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−48.6%−48.6%+0.0%
2020-02-20−45.5%−45.5%+0.0%
2020-02-24−41.9%−48.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+36.9%+0.0%+50.7%
2020-05-06+25.0%+0.0%+25.0%
2020-03-18+23.4%−16.4%+26.0%

2,398 overlapping windows · 2017-02-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$17.7B
market cap
$0.95
EPS (TTM)
31.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$2.7B
'20'25
Net income$588M
'20'25
Free cash flow$963M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr21.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr6.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.88
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $27.21$24.95$54.65
  • DCF (intrinsic)$52.60
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$31.23
  • Analyst target · range $27.00–$35.00$32.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$27.21

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
+0.5%
n=9
Feb
33%
−1.1%
n=9
Mar
70%
+0.6%
n=10
Apr
60%
+3.8%
n=10
May
70%
+1.5%
n=10
Jun
80%
+1.9%
n=10
Jul
60%
+2.2%
n=10
Aug
60%
+0.9%
n=10
Sep
10%
−4.0%
n=10
Oct
22%
−2.5%
n=9
Nov
67%
+3.6%
n=9
Dec
44%
−0.5%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$31$24↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-06-13Tanner Dallas BdirectorSale148,749 @ $33.41$5.0M−18.8% of holding−8.0%−34.8%642,973Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

99 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31Eisen Scott G.officerWithheld for tax7,420263,812Form 4
2026-05-07Margolis Joseph DdirectorAward / grant6,55938,474Form 4
2026-05-07KELTER JEFFREY EdirectorAward / grant6,55963,845Form 4
2026-05-07Sevilla-Sacasa Frances AldrichdirectorAward / grant6,55923,128Form 4
2026-05-07Smith Kenny KellyndirectorAward / grant6,55912,143Form 4
2026-05-07TAYLOR KEITH DdirectorAward / grant6,55923,128Form 4
2026-05-07Barbe, Cohen JanadirectorAward / grant6,55940,211Form 4
2026-05-07Fascitelli Michael DdirectorAward / grant6,55987,541Form 4
2026-05-07Howard Hugh Wyman IIIdirectorAward / grant6,55915,545Form 4
2026-05-05SOLLS MARK AofficerAward / grant8,727224,790Form 4
2026-03-01Tanner Dallas BdirectorWithheld for tax10,573728,771Form 4
2026-03-01Tanner Dallas BdirectorWithheld for tax8,101746,963Form 4
2026-03-01Tanner Dallas BdirectorWithheld for tax7,619739,344Form 4
2026-03-01Olsen Jonathan S.officerWithheld for tax2,21867,548Form 4
2026-03-01Eisen Scott G.officerWithheld for tax2,017100,389Form 4
2026-03-01Lobner Timothy J.officerWithheld for tax1,511162,629Form 4
2026-03-01Olsen Jonathan S.officerWithheld for tax1,42569,766Form 4
2026-03-01Eisen Scott G.officerWithheld for tax1,411102,406Form 4
2026-03-01SOLLS MARK AofficerWithheld for tax1,305216,063Form 4
2026-03-01Olsen Jonathan S.officerWithheld for tax1,29771,191Form 4
2026-03-01SOLLS MARK AofficerWithheld for tax844218,149Form 4
2026-03-01Lobner Timothy J.officerWithheld for tax808164,140Form 4
2026-03-01SOLLS MARK AofficerWithheld for tax781217,368Form 4
2026-03-01Lobner Timothy J.officerWithheld for tax730164,948Form 4
2026-03-01Norrell Kimberly KofficerWithheld for tax460167,413Form 4
2026-03-01Norrell Kimberly KofficerWithheld for tax268168,138Form 4
2026-03-01Norrell Kimberly KofficerWithheld for tax265167,873Form 4
2026-03-01Lobner Timothy J.officerAward / grant227,791390,420Form 4
2026-03-01Tanner Dallas BdirectorAward / grant107,194755,064Form 4
2026-03-01Tanner Dallas BdirectorAward / grant379,6511,108,422Form 4
2026-03-01Eisen Scott G.officerAward / grant33,695103,817Form 4
2026-03-01Eisen Scott G.officerAward / grant170,843271,232Form 4
2026-03-01Olsen Jonathan S.officerAward / grant25,62772,488Form 4
2026-03-01Olsen Jonathan S.officerAward / grant189,826257,374Form 4
2026-03-01Lobner Timothy J.officerAward / grant21,071165,678Form 4
2026-03-01SOLLS MARK AofficerAward / grant15,614218,993Form 4
2026-03-01Norrell Kimberly KofficerAward / grant7,831168,406Form 4
2026-02-23Tanner Dallas BdirectorWithheld for tax23,329647,870Form 4
2026-02-23Olsen Jonathan S.officerWithheld for tax3,90246,861Form 4
2026-02-23SOLLS MARK AofficerWithheld for tax2,629203,379Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-07-092025-06-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-28$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.