Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.20 · now $21.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, INVA has typically landed between $18.98 and $24.29 — a range of −10.5% to +14.6% from the issuance price $21.20.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where INVA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $21.2 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.26 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.14–$22.39
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.98–$24.29
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-08-28 | −49.2% | −49.2% | +15.7% |
| 2008-09-26 | −48.3% | −48.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-29 | −47.9% | −47.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-24 | +105.0% | +0.0% | +105.0% |
| 2008-11-21 | +103.0% | +0.0% | +103.0% |
| 2008-12-02 | +102.3% | +0.0% | +102.3% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-06 | DENNER ALEXANDER J | director | Sale | 1,196,746 @ $17.52 | $21.0M | −17.5% of holding | +12.2% | +2.7% | 5,658,705 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-05 | DENNER ALEXANDER J | director | Sale | 270,374 @ $17.63 | $4.8M | −3.8% of holding | +10.3% | +6.8% | 6,855,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | DENNER ALEXANDER J | director | Sale | 151,175 @ $17.63 | $2.7M | −2.1% of holding | +4.7% | +6.7% | 7,125,825 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
56 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Raifeld Pavel | director | Withheld for tax | 1,130 | 284,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Zhen Marianne | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,127 | 56,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Basso Stephen | officer | Withheld for tax | 558 | 88,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Raifeld Pavel | director | Withheld for tax | 1,130 | 285,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Zhen Marianne | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,127 | 57,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Basso Stephen | officer | Withheld for tax | 559 | 88,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Linden Josephine | director | Award / grant | 9,166 | 9,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Linden Josephine | director | Award / grant | 9,461 | 15,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Linden Josephine | director | Award / grant | 5,733 | 5,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Basso Stephen | officer | Award / grant | 1,123 | 89,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Raifeld Pavel | director | Award / grant | 1,123 | 287,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Small Derek A | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Zhen Marianne | officer | Award / grant | 12,766 | 58,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Zhen Marianne | officer | Award / grant | 31,500 | 31,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Haimovitz Jules | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | DiPaolo Mark | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Raifeld Pavel | director | Award / grant | 126,646 | 285,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Raifeld Pavel | director | Award / grant | 312,500 | 312,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Schlesinger Sarah J. | director | Award / grant | 9,786 | 140,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Schlesinger Sarah J. | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Basso Stephen | officer | Award / grant | 37,994 | 88,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Basso Stephen | officer | Award / grant | 93,750 | 93,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Haimovitz Jules | director | Award / grant | 9,786 | 152,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | DiPaolo Mark | director | Award / grant | 9,786 | 140,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Small Derek A | director | Award / grant | 9,786 | 45,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Raifeld Pavel | director | Withheld for tax | 2,986 | 159,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Zhen Marianne | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,460 | 45,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Basso Stephen | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,244 | 50,013 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Zhen Marianne | officer | Withheld for tax | 992 | 48,337 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Basso Stephen | officer | Withheld for tax | 237 | 51,257 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Basso Stephen | officer | Award / grant | 604 | 51,494 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Raifeld Pavel | director | Award / grant | 110,436 | 162,276 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Basso Stephen | officer | Award / grant | 27,609 | 50,890 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Zhen Marianne | officer | Withheld for tax | 991 | 49,329 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Basso Stephen | officer | Withheld for tax | 237 | 23,281 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-20 | Zhen Marianne | officer | Withheld for tax | 992 | 50,320 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-20 | Basso Stephen | officer | Withheld for tax | 237 | 23,518 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-19 | Haimovitz Jules | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-19 | Schlesinger Sarah J. | director | Award / grant | 12,077 | 130,706 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-19 | Schlesinger Sarah J. | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.