Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.03 · now $0.71 (2026-09-16, −30.7% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, INV has typically landed between $0.71 and $1.32 — a range of −31.3% to +28.1% from the issuance price $1.03.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,183 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-11-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where INV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $0.714 (-30.7%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.03 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.02–$1.04
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.7076–$1.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,183 windows spanning 2021-11-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-08-13 | −76.4% | −76.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-12 | −73.4% | −73.4% | +2.3% |
| 2026-08-11 | −69.3% | −69.3% | +7.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-10-28 | +100.8% | −1.5% | +111.6% |
| 2025-10-29 | +96.2% | −13.0% | +96.2% |
| 2025-10-30 | +96.1% | +0.0% | +125.5% |
1,183 overlapping windows · 2021-11-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−6.6%
n=5
Feb
60%
−8.3%
n=5
Mar
60%
+5.4%
n=5
Apr
40%
+4.3%
n=5
May
40%
+3.7%
n=5
Jun
40%
−3.9%
n=5
Jul
40%
−7.9%
n=5
Aug
60%
−8.3%
n=5
Sep
40%
−9.4%
n=5
Oct
75%
−11.7%
n=4
Nov
50%
+24.2%
n=4
Dec
60%
+2.7%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Otworth Michael | director | Purchase | 231,000 @ $1.51 | $349K | +6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,781,087 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Donnally James O | director | Purchase | 225,000 @ $1.50 | $338K | +806.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 252,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Haskell Gregory W | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $1.51 | $76K | +5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 979,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Brown Bruce | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $1.51 | $45K | +39.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 106,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | HENNESSY DANIEL J | director | Sale | 582,139 @ $5.52 | $3.2M | −76.1% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,358 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | HENNESSY DANIEL J | director | Sale | 2,992 @ $5.01 | $15K | −0.4% of holding | +42.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 764,497 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 252,502 @ $4.68 | $1.2M | −4.0% of holding | −16.8% | +25.1% | 6,135,284 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-17 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 184,777 @ $4.86 | $898K | −2.8% of holding | −26.6% | +15.9% | 6,387,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | HENNESSY DANIEL J | director | Sale | 55,840 @ $5.19 | $290K | −6.8% of holding | −23.3% | −3.5% | 761,095 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 172,589 @ $4.76 | $822K | −2.6% of holding | −7.3% | +9.0% | 6,572,561 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 117,901 @ $4.95 | $584K | −1.7% of holding | −10.4% | +22.9% | 6,745,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Otworth Michael | director | Purchase | 12,000 @ $5.06 | $61K | +0.3% of holding | −10.4% | +22.9% | 3,492,607 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | HENNESSY DANIEL J | director | Sale | 8,450 @ $5.01 | $42K | −1.0% of holding | −10.4% | +22.9% | 816,935 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 427,301 @ $5.11 | $2.2M | −5.9% of holding | −16.9% | +19.7% | 6,863,051 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | HENNESSY DANIEL J | director | Sale | 81,993 @ $5.13 | $421K | −9.0% of holding | −16.9% | +19.7% | 825,385 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Austrup Roland | officer | Purchase | 4,900 @ $5.01 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | −16.9% | +19.7% | 868,164 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Scott John Stewart | officer | Sale | 452,668 @ $5.13 | $2.3M | −18.7% of holding | −21.7% | +0.1% | 1,965,051 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-26 | Haskell Gregory W | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.14 | $51K | +1.3% of holding | −21.7% | +0.1% | 762,115 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | HENNESSY DANIEL J | director | Sale | 266,367 @ $5.31 | $1.4M | −22.7% of holding | −24.8% | −15.4% | 907,378 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Donnally James O | director | Purchase | 27,886 @ $3.37 | $94K | ownership Δ n/a | −2.8% | +37.0% | 27,886 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 302,211 @ $3.51 | $1.1M | −4.0% of holding | +19.4% | +67.1% | 7,290,352 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | Niemeyer Suzanne | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $3.40 | $14K | +0.7% of holding | +19.4% | +67.1% | 538,269 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 235,765 @ $3.34 | $787K | −3.0% of holding | +37.3% | +85.0% | 7,592,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 263,782 @ $3.61 | $952K | −3.3% of holding | +18.7% | +73.2% | 7,828,328 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 149,708 @ $2.92 | $437K | −1.8% of holding | +96.8% | +109.6% | 8,092,110 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-27 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 98,167 @ $2.97 | $292K | −1.2% of holding | +93.1% | +115.5% | 8,241,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 263,627 @ $3.03 | $799K | −3.1% of holding | +55.7% | +103.6% | 8,339,985 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-23 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 193,587 @ $3.13 | $606K | −2.2% of holding | +41.0% | +127.1% | 8,603,612 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 436,296 @ $3.01 | $1.3M | −4.7% of holding | +18.6% | +110.5% | 8,797,199 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | WE-INN LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,300 @ $3.92 | $9K | −0.4% of holding | +19.1% | +31.8% | 557,700 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | HENNESSY DANIEL J | director | Sale | 10,828 @ $5.21 | $56K | −0.9% of holding | −9.3% | +5.8% | 1,173,745 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | HENNESSY DANIEL J | director | Sale | 8,606 @ $5.05 | $43K | −0.7% of holding | −33.2% | −15.6% | 1,184,573 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-07 | HENNESSY DANIEL J | director | Sale | 500 @ $5.01 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −22.6% | −10.1% | 1,193,179 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | HENNESSY DANIEL J | director | Sale | 6,265 @ $5.11 | $32K | −0.5% of holding | −33.9% | −20.4% | 1,193,679 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Donnally James O | director | Purchase | 1,392,059 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −39.0% | −39.8% | 1,392,059 | Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Otworth Michael | director | Purchase | 114,161 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −39.0% | −39.8% | 114,161 | Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Otworth Michael | director | Purchase | 114,161 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −39.0% | −39.8% | 114,161 | Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Donnally James O | director | Purchase | 578,294 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −39.0% | −39.8% | 578,294 | Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Scott John Stewart | officer | Purchase | 226,334 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −39.0% | −39.8% | 226,334 | Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Donnally James O | director | Purchase | 1,392,059 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −39.0% | −39.8% | 1,392,059 | Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Scott John Stewart | officer | Purchase | 226,334 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −39.0% | −39.8% | 226,334 | Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Donnally James O | director | Purchase | 578,294 | — | ownership Δ n/a | −39.0% | −39.8% | 578,294 | Form 4 · filed 31 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
105 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Grieco William J. | director | Other acquisition | 8,103 | 131,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Haskell Gregory W | director | Other acquisition | 46,460 | 933,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Yablunosky David | director | Other acquisition | 1,236 | 542,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Donnally James O | director | Other acquisition | 2,227 | 16,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Otworth Michael | director | Other acquisition | 154,829 | 3,626,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Donnally James O | director | Award / grant | 5,425 | 23,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Brown Bruce | director | Award / grant | 7,083 | 76,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Williams Elizabeth Suzanne | director | Award / grant | 2,466 | 53,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Donnally James O | director | Gift | 5,425 | 1,635,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Donnally James O | director | Gift | 5,425 | 18,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Donnally James O | director | Gift | 22,305 | 1,629,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Donnally James O | director | Gift | 22,305 | 18,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Donnally James O | director | Award / grant | 18,237 | 40,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Brown Bruce | director | Award / grant | 18,237 | 69,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Amalfitano Michael | director | Award / grant | 18,237 | 47,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Fallon Catriona M | director | Award / grant | 18,237 | 18,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hewitt John D. | director | Award / grant | 18,237 | 20,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Williams Elizabeth Suzanne | director | Award / grant | 18,237 | 51,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Niemeyer Suzanne | director | Withheld for tax | 27,276 | 632,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Hewitt John D. | director | Award / grant | 2,561 | 2,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Otworth Michael | director | Award / grant | 154,829 | 3,550,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Yablunosky David | director | Award / grant | 1,236 | 543,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Donnally James O | director | Award / grant | 80,848 | 1,607,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Haskell Gregory W | director | Award / grant | 46,460 | 929,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Haskell Gregory W | director | Award / grant | 46,460 | 929,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Donnally James O | director | Award / grant | 27,849 | 4,708,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Donnally James O | director | Award / grant | 80,848 | 1,607,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Otworth Michael | director | Award / grant | 154,829 | 3,550,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Donnally James O | director | Award / grant | 27,849 | 4,708,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Yablunosky David | director | Award / grant | 1,236 | 543,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Yablunosky David | director | Award / grant | 121,228 | 542,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Haskell Gregory W | director | Award / grant | 121,228 | 883,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Haskell Gregory W | director | Award / grant | 228,787 | 228,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Otworth Michael | director | Award / grant | 85,795 | 85,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Otworth Michael | director | Award / grant | 121,228 | 3,395,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Niemeyer Suzanne | director | Award / grant | 121,228 | 659,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Niemeyer Suzanne | director | Award / grant | 85,795 | 85,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Yablunosky David | director | Award / grant | 85,795 | 85,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Brown Bruce | director | Award / grant | 8,951 | 51,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Donnally James O | director | Award / grant | 7,033 | 22,305 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.