INTCIntel Corp.Technology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $123.00 · now $123.00 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, INTC has typically landed between $101.12 and $156.33 — a range of −17.8% to +27.1% from the issuance price $123.00.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($123.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where INTC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $123 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$101.12worst · -17.8%$156.33best · +27.1%
  • now $123 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $123.52 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $113.55–$133.5
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $101.12–$156.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-07-09−44.7%−44.7%+0.8%
2024-07-12−43.5%−44.6%+1.1%
2024-07-08−41.7%−41.7%+2.6%
3 best
2026-03-30+130.0%+0.0%+130.0%
2026-03-31+114.1%+0.0%+114.7%
2026-04-07+113.6%+0.0%+113.6%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$464.0B
market cap
$-2.11
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$52.9B
'20'25
Net income−$267M
'20'25
Free cash flow−$4.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-0.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-0.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.41
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $123.00$-12.94$215.77
  • DCF (intrinsic)$2.83
  • Analyst target · range $60.00–$200.00$109.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$123.00

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.4%
n=18
Feb
58%
+1.4%
n=19
Mar
68%
+4.4%
n=19
Apr
58%
+4.7%
n=19
May
68%
+1.7%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Jul
47%
−1.6%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.4%
n=19
Sep
63%
+4.1%
n=19
Oct
50%
+2.0%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.5%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$141$242026-08-11: 1 insider purchase, $10.0M — TAN LIP BU2026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — Chandrasekaran Nagasubramaniyan2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $4.0M — Miller Boise April2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $981K — Miller Boise April2026-01-26: 1 insider purchase, $250K — Zinsner David2026-01: 1 open-market purchase, $250K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $981K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $6.5M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $10.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector TAN LIP BU — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Chandrasekaran Nagasubramaniyan — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Miller Boise April — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Miller Boise April — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Zinsner David — Purchase on 2026-01-26, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-11TAN LIP BUdirectorPurchase105,263 @ $95.00$10.0M+8.7% of holding+4.3%not yet — horizon still open1,314,669Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-29Chandrasekaran NagasubramaniyanofficerSale21,024 @ $118.28$2.5M−9.3% of holding+22.8%not yet — horizon still open205,852Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-01Miller Boise AprildirectorSale40,256 @ $99.53$4.0M−27.7% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open105,077Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-02Miller Boise AprildirectorSale20,000 @ $49.05$981K−15.0% of holding−5.1%+95.1%113,060Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-26Zinsner DaviddirectorPurchase5,882 @ $42.50$250K+2.4% of holding+10.3%+95.6%247,392Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

295 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-30Chandrasekaran NagasubramaniyanofficerWithheld for tax14,738224,121Form 4
2026-07-30Chandrasekaran NagasubramaniyanofficerOption exercise33,00733,008Form 4
2026-07-30Chandrasekaran NagasubramaniyanofficerOption exercise33,00733,008Form 4
2026-07-30BARRATT CRAIG HdirectorAward / grant1,4611,461Form 4
2026-07-30Chandrasekaran NagasubramaniyanofficerOption exercise33,007238,859Form 4
2026-07-30Chandrasekaran NagasubramaniyanofficerOption exercise33,007238,859Form 4
2026-07-30BARRATT CRAIG HdirectorAward / grant1,4611,461Form 4
2026-06-01Zinsner DaviddirectorWithheld for tax18,353383,580Form 4
2026-06-01Zinsner DaviddirectorOption exercise37,0150Form 4
2026-06-01Zinsner DaviddirectorOption exercise37,015401,933Form 4
2026-06-01Zinsner DaviddirectorOption exercise37,0150Form 4
2026-06-01Zinsner DaviddirectorOption exercise37,015401,933Form 4
2026-05-30Bawa AparnadirectorAward / grant27,27427,274Form 4
2026-05-30Katouzian AliyarofficerAward / grant32,72932,729Form 4
2026-05-30Katouzian AliyarofficerAward / grant87,27687,276Form 4
2026-05-30Bawa AparnadirectorAward / grant27,27427,274Form 4
2026-05-30Katouzian AliyarofficerAward / grant32,72932,729Form 4
2026-05-30Bawa AparnadirectorAward / grant27,27427,274Form 4
2026-05-30Katouzian AliyarofficerAward / grant87,27687,276Form 4
2026-05-30Katouzian AliyarofficerAward / grant32,72932,729Form 4
2026-05-30Katouzian AliyarofficerAward / grant32,72932,729Form 4
2026-05-30Bawa AparnadirectorAward / grant27,27427,274Form 4
2026-05-13BARRATT CRAIG HdirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13Henry AlyssadirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13Goldsmith Andrea JodirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13Sanghi StevedirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13BARRATT CRAIG HdirectorAward / grant1,1131,113Form 4
2026-05-13WEISLER DION JdirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13Henry AlyssadirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13GOETZ JAMES JdirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13Meurice EricdirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13BARRATT CRAIG HdirectorAward / grant1,1131,113Form 4
2026-05-13Smith Stacy JdirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13Goldsmith Andrea JodirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13NOVICK BARBARAdirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13Sanghi StevedirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13GOETZ JAMES JdirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13Smith Gregory DdirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13Smith Gregory DdirectorAward / grant2,7822,782Form 4
2026-05-13NOVICK BARBARAdirectorAward / grant1,5021,502Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Dwight EvansHousesale2026-06-242026-06-10$1–15K
Nancy PelosiHousepurchase2026-06-232026-05-29$1M+
Matthew Robert Van EppsHousesale2026-06-172026-06-16$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-12$100–250K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Dwight EvansHousesale2026-05-152026-05-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$15–50K
Cliff BentzHousesale2026-05-092026-04-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-06$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.