INSPInspire Medical Systems, Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Devicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $72.75 · now $72.75 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, INSP has typically landed between $53.68 and $90.02 — a range of −26.2% to +23.7% from the issuance price $72.75.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,083 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-05-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($72.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where INSP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $72.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$53.68worst · -26.2%$90.02best · +23.7%
  • now $72.75 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $72.36 (-0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $64.46–$80.25
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $53.68–$90.02
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,083 windows spanning 2018-05-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−48.8%−48.8%+10.7%
2020-02-18−43.6%−43.6%+11.6%
2020-02-20−43.4%−43.9%+11.1%
3 best
2025-10-31+85.8%+0.0%+85.8%
2025-11-03+82.8%+0.0%+82.8%
2025-10-30+72.9%−1.4%+78.4%

2,083 overlapping windows · 2018-05-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
75%
+2.7%
n=8
Feb
63%
+3.1%
n=8
Mar
25%
−8.5%
n=8
Apr
63%
+5.0%
n=8
May
38%
−9.1%
n=8
Jun
67%
+3.6%
n=9
Jul
67%
+7.0%
n=9
Aug
67%
+7.4%
n=9
Sep
44%
−3.5%
n=9
Oct
25%
−2.9%
n=8
Nov
63%
+20.4%
n=8
Dec
63%
+1.9%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$144$402026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $57K — Kelly Jason P2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $114K — Rondoni John2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $30K — Rondoni John2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $32K — mcCormick Shawn2026-01-09: 1 insider sale, $11K — Rondoni John2025-12-02: 1 insider sale, $167K — mcCormick Shawn2025-11-28: 1 insider sale, $255K — mcCormick Shawn2025-08-29: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Buchholz Richard2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.0M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $255K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $167K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $11K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $176K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $57K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Kelly Jason P — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Rondoni John — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Rondoni John — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector mcCormick Shawn — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Rondoni John — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 3 days after the tradedirector mcCormick Shawn — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector mcCormick Shawn — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Buchholz Richard — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Kelly Jason PofficerSale963 @ $59.55$57K−4.8% of holding+4.2%not yet — horizon still open18,985Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Rondoni JohnofficerSale2,641 @ $43.28$114K−8.9% of holding+1.8%not yet — horizon still open27,165Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14Rondoni JohnofficerSale700 @ $43.01$30K−2.3% of holding−4.5%not yet — horizon still open29,806Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08mcCormick ShawndirectorSale696 @ $45.31$32K−2.5% of holding−4.6%not yet — horizon still open27,712Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-09Rondoni JohnofficerSale109 @ $100.00$11K−0.8% of holding−30.5%−58.9%13,797Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-02mcCormick ShawndirectorSale1,200 @ $139.00$167K−4.6% of holding−31.6%−80.2%24,846Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-28mcCormick ShawndirectorSale2,000 @ $127.48$255K−7.1% of holding−26.4%−79.2%26,046Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-29Buchholz RicharddirectorSale11,000 @ $93.39$1.0M−19.7% of holding−24.4%−35.8%44,867Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-08Curet MyriamdirectorSale4 @ $77.28$309−0.1% of holding+0.9%−25.7%3,365Form 4 · filed 108 days after the trade
2025-05-19Rondoni JohnofficerSale1,734 @ $149.38$259K−11.2% of holding−13.8%−55.9%13,766Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-08Curet MyriamdirectorSale2 @ $153.22$306−0.1% of holding−16.7%−64.5%3,369Form 4 · filed 200 days after the trade
2025-05-02mcCormick ShawndirectorSale360 @ $160.00$58K−1.5% of holding−18.6%−75.9%24,046Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-07Curet MyriamdirectorPurchase1 @ $148.26$148+0.0% of holding−6.7%−82.1%3,371Form 4 · filed 231 days after the trade
2025-03-20Curet MyriamdirectorPurchase4 @ $163.84$655+0.1% of holding−2.2%−69.3%3,370Form 4 · filed 249 days after the trade
2025-03-03Rondoni JohnofficerSale2,287 @ $185.60$424K−12.9% of holding−9.8%−58.5%15,500Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Ban RandyofficerSale2,236 @ $185.37$414K−20.0% of holding−9.8%−58.5%8,970Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Ban RandyofficerSale1,233 @ $186.20$230K−13.7% of holding−9.8%−58.5%7,737Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Ban RandyofficerSale478 @ $187.08$89K−6.2% of holding−9.8%−58.5%7,259Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-13Ban RandyofficerSale3,824 @ $185.84$711K−25.5% of holding−4.0%−59.3%11,184Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13Ban RandyofficerSale3,770 @ $181.90$686K−13.5% of holding−4.0%−59.3%24,243Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13Ban RandyofficerSale3,452 @ $184.81$638K−18.7% of holding−4.0%−59.3%15,008Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13Ban RandyofficerSale3,341 @ $186.96$625K−29.9% of holding−4.0%−59.3%7,843Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13Ban RandyofficerSale3,242 @ $182.90$593K−13.4% of holding−4.0%−59.3%21,001Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13Ban RandyofficerSale2,541 @ $183.79$467K−12.1% of holding−4.0%−59.3%18,460Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13Ban RandyofficerSale2,500 @ $178.54$446K−7.6% of holding−4.0%−59.3%30,343Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13Ban RandyofficerSale1,330 @ $180.79$240K−4.5% of holding−4.0%−59.3%28,013Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13Ban RandyofficerSale1,000 @ $179.41$179K−3.3% of holding−4.0%−59.3%29,343Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-13Ban RandyofficerSale584 @ $187.66$110K−7.4% of holding−4.0%−59.3%7,259Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-11Rondoni JohnofficerSale583 @ $170.49$99K−5.3% of holding−4.8%−59.7%10,424Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-07Rondoni JohnofficerSale58 @ $215.00$12K−0.5% of holding−17.5%−46.1%11,322Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

121 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Kelly Jason PofficerAward / grant6,35025,335Form 4
2026-07-31Mann MelissaofficerWithheld for tax32622,957Form 4
2026-07-20CARREL MICHAEL HdirectorAward / grant5,6315,631Form 4
2026-07-15Ellis Gary LeedirectorAward / grant58111,419Form 4
2026-07-15Broader Shelley GdirectorAward / grant3838,854Form 4
2026-07-15Tansey Casey MdirectorAward / grant34626,632Form 4
2026-07-15Melenikiotou GeorgiadirectorAward / grant3448,329Form 4
2026-05-01Melenikiotou GeorgiadirectorWithheld for tax507,985Form 4
2026-04-30Burks CynthiadirectorAward / grant3,5626,213Form 4
2026-04-30Curet MyriamdirectorAward / grant3,5626,927Form 4
2026-04-30Ellis Gary LeedirectorAward / grant3,56210,838Form 4
2026-04-30mcCormick ShawndirectorAward / grant3,56228,408Form 4
2026-04-30Mead Dana G Jr.directorAward / grant3,56226,213Form 4
2026-04-30Melenikiotou GeorgiadirectorAward / grant3,5628,035Form 4
2026-04-30Tansey Casey MdirectorAward / grant3,56226,286Form 4
2026-04-30Broader Shelley GdirectorAward / grant3,5628,471Form 4
2026-04-15Ellis Gary LeedirectorAward / grant5187,276Form 4
2026-04-15Broader Shelley GdirectorAward / grant3424,909Form 4
2026-04-15Tansey Casey MdirectorAward / grant30822,724Form 4
2026-04-15Melenikiotou GeorgiadirectorAward / grant3074,473Form 4
2026-02-20Herbert Timothy P.directorWithheld for tax4,01037,681Form 4
2026-02-20Phillips Bryan KofficerWithheld for tax73514,156Form 4
2026-02-20Rondoni JohnofficerWithheld for tax73514,548Form 4
2026-02-20Weatherby CarltonofficerWithheld for tax6728,084Form 4
2026-02-20Mann MelissaofficerAward / grant15,95823,609Form 4
2026-02-20Phillips Bryan KofficerAward / grant8,39938,513Form 4
2026-02-20Phillips Bryan KofficerAward / grant2,40014,891Form 4
2026-02-20Phillips Bryan KofficerAward / grant15,95830,114Form 4
2026-02-20Weatherby CarltonofficerAward / grant2,1968,756Form 4
2026-02-20Weatherby CarltonofficerAward / grant20,99729,081Form 4
2026-02-20Weatherby CarltonofficerAward / grant12,59841,679Form 4
2026-02-20Herbert Timothy P.directorAward / grant9,00541,691Form 4
2026-02-20Herbert Timothy P.directorAward / grant62,15399,834Form 4
2026-02-20Rondoni JohnofficerAward / grant2,40015,283Form 4
2026-02-20Rondoni JohnofficerAward / grant15,95830,506Form 4
2026-02-20Kelly Jason PofficerAward / grant15,95819,948Form 4
2026-02-13Herbert Timothy P.directorWithheld for tax1,63532,686Form 4
2026-02-13Mann MelissaofficerWithheld for tax6157,651Form 4
2026-02-13Rondoni JohnofficerWithheld for tax58712,883Form 4
2026-02-13Buchholz RicharddirectorWithheld for tax57943,988Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.