Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.85 · now $10.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, INNV has typically landed between $8.24 and $14.78 — a range of −24.0% to +36.3% from the issuance price $10.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,370 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where INNV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.8 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.71–$11.89
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.24–$14.78
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-09-10 | −57.7% | −57.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-08-30 | −57.6% | −57.6% | +1.7% |
| 2021-09-02 | −57.4% | −58.3% | +0.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-02-02 | +86.0% | −0.7% | +86.0% |
| 2026-06-03 | +71.0% | +0.0% | +71.0% |
| 2026-01-30 | +71.0% | +0.0% | +71.0% |
1,370 overlapping windows · 2021-03-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | SCARBROUGH MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Sale | 33,000 @ $4.90 | $162K | −21.6% of holding | +13.6% | +39.1% | 119,617 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | ZORETIC RICHARD C | director | Purchase | 8,450 @ $4.08 | $34K | +14.1% of holding | −8.5% | +12.5% | 68,494 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-29 | ZORETIC RICHARD C | director | Purchase | 14,265 @ $4.04 | $58K | +31.2% of holding | −13.9% | +6.6% | 60,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | ZORETIC RICHARD C | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $4.06 | $81K | +77.6% of holding | −8.1% | +15.8% | 45,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | ZORETIC RICHARD C | director | Purchase | 1,198 @ $3.93 | $5K | +4.9% of holding | −7.9% | +19.1% | 25,779 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-22 | ZORETIC RICHARD C | director | Purchase | 700 @ $4.09 | $3K | +2.9% of holding | −3.9% | +10.6% | 24,581 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | ZORETIC RICHARD C | director | Purchase | 1,147 @ $4.13 | $5K | +5.0% of holding | −6.4% | +8.3% | 23,881 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | ZORETIC RICHARD C | director | Purchase | 807 @ $4.20 | $3K | +3.7% of holding | −8.8% | +19.9% | 22,734 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | ZORETIC RICHARD C | director | Purchase | 2,086 @ $4.28 | $9K | +10.5% of holding | −11.3% | +1.8% | 21,927 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | SCARBROUGH MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $3.89 | $39K | +43.5% of holding | −9.7% | +19.8% | 33,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-12 | SCARBROUGH MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Purchase | 13,000 @ $3.73 | $48K | +130.0% of holding | −2.9% | +15.3% | 23,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | SCARBROUGH MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $3.55 | $36K | ownership Δ n/a | −2.2% | +25.8% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | IGNITE AGGREGATOR LP | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 411,515 | 112,576,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | TCO GROUP HOLDINGS, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 411,515 | 112,576,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe XII, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 411,515 | 112,576,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | BLAIR PATRICK T | officer | Award / grant | 78,397 | 751,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Delk Meredith | officer | Award / grant | 42,808 | 42,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | DAMATO NICOLE | officer | Award / grant | 51,369 | 328,711 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Adams Benjamin C | officer | Award / grant | 17,123 | 17,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | BLAIR PATRICK T | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,453 | 672,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | DAMATO NICOLE | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,401 | 277,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | FONTNEAU PATRICIA | director | Award / grant | 8,539 | 70,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Kennedy Edward Moore Jr. | director | Award / grant | 8,539 | 76,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sparks Teresa | director | Award / grant | 8,539 | 67,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | TAVENNER MARILYN B | director | Award / grant | 8,539 | 53,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | ZORETIC RICHARD C | director | Award / grant | 8,539 | 102,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bush John Ellis | director | Award / grant | 8,539 | 53,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | CARLSON JAMES G | director | Award / grant | 8,539 | 95,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Browne Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 67,842 | 67,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-06 | BLAIR PATRICK T | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,088 | 687,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-06 | DAMATO NICOLE | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,018 | 296,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | BLAIR PATRICK T | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,881 | 697,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | DAMATO NICOLE | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,046 | 304,761 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | BLAIR PATRICK T | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,054 | 709,072 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-01 | BLAIR PATRICK T | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,056 | 714,126 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | DAMATO NICOLE | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,303 | 319,807 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-16 | BLAIR PATRICK T | officer | Award / grant | 137,299 | 719,182 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-15 | SCARBROUGH MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Award / grant | 119,617 | 152,617 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-15 | DAMATO NICOLE | officer | Award / grant | 125,598 | 334,110 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | TAVENNER MARILYN B | director | Award / grant | 25,316 | 45,157 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | ZORETIC RICHARD C | director | Award / grant | 25,316 | 93,810 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Bush John Ellis | director | Award / grant | 25,316 | 45,157 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | FONTNEAU PATRICIA | director | Award / grant | 25,316 | 62,125 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | CARLSON JAMES G | director | Award / grant | 25,316 | 87,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Sparks Teresa | director | Award / grant | 25,316 | 59,126 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Kennedy Edward Moore Jr. | director | Award / grant | 25,316 | 68,157 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-06 | BLAIR PATRICK T | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,088 | 581,883 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-06 | DAMATO NICOLE | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,056 | 208,512 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | BLAIR PATRICK T | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,880 | 591,971 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | DAMATO NICOLE | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,046 | 216,568 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-01 | BLAIR PATRICK T | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,323 | 603,851 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | BLAIR PATRICK T | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,807 | 607,174 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.