Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.71 · now $18.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, INIO has typically landed between $11.61 and $23.07 — a range of −37.9% to +23.3% from the issuance price $18.71.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
51 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-06-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where INIO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.71 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.15 (-19.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.49–$16.8
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.61–$23.07
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-29 | −43.2% | −43.2% | +3.2% |
| 2026-06-30 | −38.3% | −45.0% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-13 | −36.7% | −36.7% | +2.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-05 | +4.1% | −2.5% | +27.7% |
| 2026-06-04 | +3.8% | −5.6% | +23.5% |
| 2026-07-29 | +3.5% | +0.0% | +29.7% |
51 overlapping windows · 2026-06-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | AI Alpine (Luxembourg) S.a.r.l. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 103,500,000 @ $25.99 | $2.7B | −13.8% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 646,500,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | LINEBARGER NORMAN THOMAS | director | Purchase | 92,592 @ $27.00 | $2.5M | +104.2% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,481 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Yetman Christopher | director | Purchase | 37,037 @ $27.00 | $1000K | ownership Δ n/a | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,037 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | BANKS LEE C | director | Purchase | 37,037 @ $27.00 | $1000K | ownership Δ n/a | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,037 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Giadrossi Nicoletta | director | Purchase | 2,222 @ $27.00 | $60K | ownership Δ n/a | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,222 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
6 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | BANKS LEE C | director | Award / grant | 44,445 | 44,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Sonnenmoser Karin Betina | director | Award / grant | 7,408 | 7,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Yetman Christopher | director | Award / grant | 44,445 | 44,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | LINEBARGER NORMAN THOMAS | director | Award / grant | 88,889 | 88,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Giadrossi Nicoletta | director | Award / grant | 9,630 | 9,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Klebert Stefan | director | Award / grant | 7,408 | 7,408 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.