INGRIngredion Incorporatedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $98.48 · now $98.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, INGR has typically landed between $90.23 and $107.84 — a range of −8.4% to +9.5% from the issuance price $98.48.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($98.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where INGR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $98.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$90.23worst · -8.4%$107.84best · +9.5%
  • now $98.48 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $98.94 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $94.9–$102.99
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $90.23–$107.84
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-08−46.2%−46.2%+0.0%
2008-09-23−43.8%−45.0%+4.7%
2008-09-16−43.1%−43.1%+8.4%
3 best
2008-10-27+35.9%+0.0%+35.9%
2020-03-18+33.8%+0.0%+36.2%
2008-10-28+33.6%+0.0%+33.6%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.5%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.7%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.5%
n=19
May
58%
−0.9%
n=19
Jun
32%
−0.5%
n=19
Jul
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.4%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.5%
n=19
Oct
44%
+1.6%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.5%
n=18
Dec
72%
+2.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$126$942026-08-05: 1 insider sale, $170K — Fischer David B2026-03-31: 1 insider sale, $83 — Uribe Jorge A.2026-03-18: 1 insider sale, $42K — Gable Davida Marie2026-02-18: 2 insider sales, $1.3M — Zallie James P., Fernandes Larry2026-02-11: 2 insider sales, $4.5M — Zallie James P., Fernandes Larry2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $61 — Uribe Jorge A.2025-09-30: 1 insider sale, $59 — Uribe Jorge A.2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $4.6M — Zallie James P.2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $4.7M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $592025-12: 1 open-market sale, $612026-02: 4 open-market sales, $5.7M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $42K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $170K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Fischer David B — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Uribe Jorge A. — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gable Davida Marie — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Zallie James P. — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Fernandes Larry — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Zallie James P. — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Fernandes Larry — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Uribe Jorge A. — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Uribe Jorge A. — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Zallie James P. — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-05Fischer David BdirectorSale1,662 @ $102.31$170K−7.7% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open19,930Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31Uribe Jorge A.directorSale1 @ $112.66$83−0.0% of holding−10.6%not yet — horizon still open13,237Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-18Gable Davida MarieofficerSale375 @ $112.44$42K−5.0% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open7,110Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Zallie James P.directorSale9,958 @ $116.55$1.2M−23.2% of holding−1.4%−24.4%33,011Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Fernandes LarryofficerSale1,125 @ $116.55$131K−3.6% of holding−1.4%−24.4%30,514Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Zallie James P.directorSale33,597 @ $119.66$4.0M−40.1% of holding−2.0%−23.7%50,167Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Fernandes LarryofficerSale3,630 @ $118.40$430K−10.2% of holding−2.0%−23.7%32,055Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-05Uribe Jorge A.directorSale1 @ $107.70$61−0.0% of holding+1.8%−12.9%13,033Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-30Uribe Jorge A.directorSale0 @ $124.49$59−0.0% of holding−7.8%−5.8%13,023Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12Zallie James P.directorSale36,287 @ $126.52$4.6M−42.0% of holding−2.3%−12.4%50,129Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04Fernandes LarryofficerSale850 @ $128.39$109K−2.7% of holding−1.0%−13.4%31,171Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-30Uribe Jorge A.directorSale0 @ $137.48$22−0.0% of holding−4.7%−28.9%12,920Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-08Ritchie Robert A.officerSale3,835 @ $137.90$529K−16.1% of holding−5.4%−40.7%19,989Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08Ritchie Robert A.officerSale2,849 @ $137.79$393K−12.5% of holding−5.4%−40.7%19,989Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-07Fernandes LarryofficerSale2,040 @ $135.61$277K−5.9% of holding−5.1%−41.1%32,356Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-07Fernandes LarryofficerSale360 @ $137.03$49K−1.1% of holding−5.1%−41.1%31,996Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-31Uribe Jorge A.directorSale0 @ $132.66$43−0.0% of holding−0.3%−28.4%12,851Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Zallie James P.directorSale10,815 @ $125.88$1.4M−24.1% of holding+11.6%−3.7%34,127Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-14Zallie James P.directorSale39,329 @ $126.91$5.0M−42.7% of holding+12.1%−6.2%52,758Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

281 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Leonard Michael JofficerAward / grant281,895Form 4
2026-09-15Seip David EricofficerAward / grant1813,429Form 4
2026-08-31Leonard Michael JofficerAward / grant331,867Form 4
2026-08-31Seip David EricofficerAward / grant1713,411Form 4
2026-08-14Leonard Michael JofficerAward / grant321,834Form 4
2026-08-14Seip David EricofficerAward / grant1713,394Form 4
2026-07-31Leonard Michael JofficerAward / grant341,801Form 4
2026-07-31Seip David EricofficerAward / grant1813,378Form 4
2026-07-15Leonard Michael JofficerAward / grant341,753Form 4
2026-07-15Seip David EricofficerAward / grant1813,254Form 4
2026-07-01Escoe T. KennethdirectorAward / grant1,5161,516Form 4
2026-06-30Magro Charles V.directorAward / grant265500Form 4
2026-06-30Leonard Michael JofficerAward / grant361,719Form 4
2026-06-30Seip David EricofficerAward / grant1813,236Form 4
2026-06-15Leonard Michael JofficerAward / grant341,683Form 4
2026-06-15Seip David EricofficerAward / grant1713,218Form 4
2026-05-29Leonard Michael JofficerAward / grant341,649Form 4
2026-05-29Seip David EricofficerAward / grant1713,200Form 4
2026-05-20Fischer David BdirectorAward / grant1,79721,435Form 4
2026-05-20Suever Catherine AdirectorAward / grant1,7978,710Form 4
2026-05-20Jordan Rhonda LdirectorAward / grant1,79728,909Form 4
2026-05-20Magro Charles V.directorAward / grant1,79711,345Form 4
2026-05-20REICH VICTORIAdirectorAward / grant1,79721,927Form 4
2026-05-20Talbot SiobhandirectorAward / grant1,7971,797Form 4
2026-05-20Tanda Stephan B.directorAward / grant1,7971,797Form 4
2026-05-20Uribe Jorge A.directorAward / grant1,79714,815Form 4
2026-05-20Verduin PatriciadirectorAward / grant1,7975,620Form 4
2026-05-20Wilson Dwayne AndreedirectorAward / grant1,79730,536Form 4
2026-05-15Leonard Michael JofficerAward / grant331,615Form 4
2026-05-15Seip David EricofficerAward / grant1713,183Form 4
2026-05-02Ritchie Robert A.officerWithheld for tax84231,178Form 4
2026-04-30Leonard Michael JofficerAward / grant311,582Form 4
2026-04-30Seip David EricofficerAward / grant1613,166Form 4
2026-04-16Tanda Stephan B.directorGift3800Form 4
2026-04-16Tanda Stephan B.directorGift38010,737Form 4
2026-04-15Leonard Michael JofficerAward / grant301,541Form 4
2026-04-15Seip David EricofficerAward / grant1513,056Form 4
2026-04-15Uribe Jorge A.directorGift31212,925Form 4
2026-04-15Uribe Jorge A.directorGift3126,449Form 4
2026-04-09Tanda Stephan B.directorGift1,55710,357Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-14$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-10-222025-09-25$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-07-10$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-24$1–15K
Nicholas Van TaylorHousesale2019-04-152019-03-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-09-122018-08-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-06-082018-05-08$1–15K
Mr. Ed WhitfieldHousepurchase2014-10-082014-09-25$1–15K
Mr. Ed WhitfieldHousepurchase2014-08-142014-07-31$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.