Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.13 · now $5.13 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, INGN has typically landed between $3.97 and $6.30 — a range of −22.7% to +22.7% from the issuance price $5.13.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,144 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-02-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where INGN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.13 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.97 (-3.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.46–$5.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.97–$6.3
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-02-23 | −46.4% | −46.4% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-15 | −46.0% | −46.0% | +0.3% |
| 2023-02-16 | −45.9% | −46.1% | +0.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-17 | +89.0% | −0.7% | +89.0% |
| 2024-01-18 | +88.2% | +0.0% | +90.4% |
| 2024-01-19 | +77.4% | −0.4% | +89.7% |
3,144 overlapping windows · 2014-02-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Yi Boyer Jennifer M | officer | Sale | 10,938 @ $6.60 | $72K | −68.5% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,039 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Yi Boyer Jennifer M | officer | Sale | 10,770 @ $6.53 | $70K | −40.3% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,977 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Smith Kevin Raymond Merrill | director | Purchase | 11,709 @ $8.56 | $100K | +20.0% of holding | −10.9% | −10.7% | 70,274 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Bourque Michael J. | officer | Purchase | 3,000 @ $8.32 | $25K | +6.7% of holding | −10.9% | −10.7% | 47,646 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
105 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Smith Kevin P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,671 | 32,972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Smith Kevin Raymond Merrill | director | Award / grant | 1,500 | 134,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wright Mary E | officer | Award / grant | 1,500 | 20,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Smith Kevin P. | officer | Award / grant | 1,500 | 23,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Smith Kevin P. | officer | Option exercise | 18,136 | 18,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Smith Kevin P. | officer | Option exercise | 18,136 | 41,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Reding Andrew P. | officer | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Boehnlein Glenn S | director | Award / grant | 28,081 | 104,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | King Kevin M | director | Award / grant | 28,081 | 104,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Mora Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 28,081 | 107,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Rider Heather D. | director | Award / grant | 28,081 | 116,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Ladone Mary Kay | director | Award / grant | 28,081 | 104,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Jamali Vafa | director | Award / grant | 28,081 | 43,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Sahney Mira Kirti | director | Award / grant | 28,081 | 67,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Richardson Jason Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Smith Kevin Raymond Merrill | director | Withheld for tax | 16,374 | 103,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Smith Kevin Raymond Merrill | director | Withheld for tax | 14,511 | 133,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Smith Kevin Raymond Merrill | director | Withheld for tax | 13,700 | 117,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Bourque Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,615 | 83,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Bourque Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,338 | 65,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Yi Boyer Jennifer M | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,952 | 26,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Bourque Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,353 | 94,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Smith Kevin P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,276 | 22,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Ramade Gregoire | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,022 | 44,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Yi Boyer Jennifer M | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,927 | 20,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Yi Boyer Jennifer M | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,544 | 15,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Yi Boyer Jennifer M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,959 | 17,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Smith Kevin P. | officer | Award / grant | 1,500 | 14,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wright Mary E | officer | Award / grant | 1,500 | 13,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wright Mary E | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,155 | 19,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wright Mary E | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,058 | 17,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Bourque Michael J. | officer | Award / grant | 874 | 50,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Smith Kevin Raymond Merrill | director | Award / grant | 685 | 86,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wright Mary E | officer | Withheld for tax | 675 | 14,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wright Mary E | officer | Withheld for tax | 520 | 15,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wright Mary E | officer | Option exercise | 3,001 | 6,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Yi Boyer Jennifer M | officer | Option exercise | 7,332 | 24,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Yi Boyer Jennifer M | officer | Option exercise | 13,005 | 26,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Yi Boyer Jennifer M | officer | Option exercise | 4,680 | 18,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Yi Boyer Jennifer M | officer | Award / grant | 3,603 | 19,248 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.