INDVIndivior Pharmaceuticals IncHealthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Genericas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.35 · now $34.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, INDV has typically landed between $27.02 and $43.31 — a range of −21.3% to +26.1% from the issuance price $34.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,922 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-12-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where INDV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$27.02worst · -21.3%$43.31best · +26.1%
  • now $34.35 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.82 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $31.36–$38.28
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $27.02–$43.31
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,922 windows spanning 2014-12-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-10-25−81.2%−81.2%+19.1%
2019-03-12−71.3%−71.3%+2.1%
2019-03-13−65.7%−70.9%+3.5%
3 best
2022-11-25+602.9%+0.0%+602.9%
2020-06-26+99.6%+0.0%+99.6%
2020-07-01+92.3%+0.0%+103.3%

2,922 overlapping windows · 2014-12-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
58%
+2.0%
n=12
Feb
58%
+1.2%
n=12
Mar
42%
−0.8%
n=12
Apr
83%
+4.0%
n=12
May
75%
+6.3%
n=12
Jun
50%
+6.4%
n=12
Jul
67%
+12.4%
n=12
Aug
50%
−0.5%
n=12
Sep
17%
−9.2%
n=12
Oct
36%
+3.5%
n=11
Nov
55%
−1.8%
n=11
Dec
64%
+2.3%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$42$232026-08-27: 1 insider purchase, $54K — Anderson Woodrow D2026-08-05: 1 insider purchase, $54K — Anderson Woodrow D2026-07-10: 1 insider sale, $765K — Heidbreder Christian2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $707K — Heidbreder Christian2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Preblick Ryan2026-03-13: 1 insider purchase, $249 — Ryan Barbara2026-03-09: 1 insider purchase, $1K — Ryan Barbara2026-03-06: 1 insider purchase, $30K — Kingsley Stuart A2026-01-05: 5 insider purchases, $172K — Wheadon David E., Ryan Barbara, Humphreys Keith, Stejbach Mark …2026-01: 5 open-market purchases, $172K2026-03: 3 open-market purchases, $31K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $765K2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $108K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Anderson Woodrow D — Purchase on 2026-08-27, filed same dayofficer Anderson Woodrow D — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed same dayofficer Heidbreder Christian — Sale on 2026-07-10, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Heidbreder Christian — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Preblick Ryan — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ryan Barbara — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed same daydirector Ryan Barbara — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kingsley Stuart A — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Wheadon David E. — Purchase on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ryan Barbara — Purchase on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Humphreys Keith — Purchase on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Stejbach Mark — Purchase on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector NINIVAGGI DANIEL A — Purchase on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-27Anderson Woodrow DofficerPurchase1,500 @ $35.69$54K+5.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open27,638Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-05Anderson Woodrow DofficerPurchase1,500 @ $36.28$54K+6.1% of holding−10.5%not yet — horizon still open26,138Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-10Heidbreder ChristianofficerSale18,586 @ $41.14$765K−8.2% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open209,337Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-11Heidbreder ChristianofficerSale18,586 @ $38.06$707K−7.5% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open227,923Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08Preblick RyanofficerSale36,000 @ $37.70$1.4M−11.2% of holding+8.5%not yet — horizon still open284,751Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13Ryan BarbaradirectorPurchase8 @ $31.09$249+0.1% of holding+0.8%−4.7%5,724Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-09Ryan BarbaradirectorPurchase31 @ $32.56$1K+0.5% of holding−2.0%−8.2%5,716Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-06Kingsley Stuart AdirectorPurchase940 @ $31.86$30K+20.2% of holding−3.9%−6.9%5,582Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-01-05Wheadon David E.directorPurchase1,771 @ $35.39$63K+14.0% of holding−5.0%+3.8%14,395Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05Ryan BarbaradirectorPurchase775 @ $35.39$27K+65.2% of holding−5.0%+3.8%1,963Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05Humphreys KeithdirectorPurchase775 @ $35.39$27K+15.4% of holding−5.0%+3.8%5,802Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05Stejbach MarkdirectorPurchase775 @ $35.39$27K+4.8% of holding−5.0%+3.8%16,847Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05NINIVAGGI DANIEL AdirectorPurchase775 @ $35.39$27K+4.8% of holding−5.0%+3.8%16,923Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

60 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-22Ciaffoni JosephdirectorWithheld for tax612,549790,330Form 4
2026-06-22Ciaffoni JosephdirectorOption exercise1,266,9031,402,879Form 4
2026-06-22Ciaffoni JosephdirectorOption exercise1,266,9030Form 4
2026-06-22Ciaffoni JosephdirectorOption exercise1,266,9031,402,879Form 4
2026-06-22Ciaffoni JosephdirectorOption exercise1,266,9030Form 4
2026-05-13Humphreys KeithdirectorAward / grant6,51816,042Form 4
2026-05-13Kingsley Stuart AdirectorAward / grant6,51812,100Form 4
2026-05-13Thompson JulietdirectorAward / grant6,51812,973Form 4
2026-05-13Stejbach MarkdirectorAward / grant6,51827,087Form 4
2026-05-13Wheadon David E.directorAward / grant10,43030,780Form 4
2026-05-13Ryan BarbaradirectorAward / grant6,51812,242Form 4
2026-05-13NINIVAGGI DANIEL AdirectorAward / grant6,51827,163Form 4
2026-05-12Thompson JulietdirectorWithheld for tax1,1176,455Form 4
2026-03-14Preblick RyanofficerWithheld for tax2,843320,751Form 4
2026-03-14Preblick RyanofficerOption exercise6,3020Form 4
2026-03-14Preblick RyanofficerOption exercise6,302323,594Form 4
2026-03-14Preblick RyanofficerOption exercise6,3020Form 4
2026-03-14Preblick RyanofficerOption exercise6,302323,594Form 4
2026-03-03Preblick RyanofficerWithheld for tax87,597230,343Form 4
2026-03-03Heidbreder ChristianofficerWithheld for tax45,797246,509Form 4
2026-03-03Burris Jeffrey WofficerWithheld for tax36,03271,518Form 4
2026-03-03Anderson Woodrow DofficerWithheld for tax8,28321,374Form 4
2026-03-03Anderson Woodrow DofficerWithheld for tax2,68224,638Form 4
2026-03-03Burris Jeffrey WofficerOption exercise79,893107,550Form 4
2026-03-03Preblick RyanofficerOption exercise86,949317,292Form 4
2026-03-03Preblick RyanofficerOption exercise113,5100Form 4
2026-03-03Heidbreder ChristianofficerOption exercise101,544292,306Form 4
2026-03-03Heidbreder ChristianofficerOption exercise132,5650Form 4
2026-03-03Burris Jeffrey WofficerOption exercise79,893107,550Form 4
2026-03-03Burris Jeffrey WofficerOption exercise104,3000Form 4
2026-03-03Burris Jeffrey WofficerOption exercise104,3000Form 4
2026-03-03Anderson Woodrow DofficerOption exercise18,36429,657Form 4
2026-03-03Anderson Woodrow DofficerOption exercise5,94627,320Form 4
2026-03-03Anderson Woodrow DofficerOption exercise23,9750Form 4
2026-03-03Anderson Woodrow DofficerOption exercise5,9460Form 4
2026-03-03Heidbreder ChristianofficerOption exercise101,544292,306Form 4
2026-03-03Heidbreder ChristianofficerOption exercise132,5650Form 4
2026-03-03Preblick RyanofficerOption exercise86,949317,292Form 4
2026-03-03Preblick RyanofficerOption exercise113,5100Form 4
2026-03-03Anderson Woodrow DofficerOption exercise18,36429,657Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.