Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.02 · now $3.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, INDI has typically landed between $2.11 and $4.20 — a range of −30.1% to +39.0% from the issuance price $3.02.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,725 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-10-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where INDI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.02 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.95 (-2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.53–$3.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.11–$4.2
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,725 windows spanning 2019-10-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-07-16 | −46.9% | −46.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-06 | −45.6% | −45.6% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-19 | −45.2% | −45.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-09-19 | +65.3% | +0.0% | +65.3% |
| 2026-04-10 | +62.9% | +0.0% | +62.9% |
| 2026-04-08 | +59.8% | +0.0% | +64.1% |
1,725 overlapping windows · 2019-10-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
43%
−2.9%
n=7
Feb
43%
−1.3%
n=7
Mar
29%
−4.8%
n=7
Apr
29%
−3.7%
n=7
May
86%
+14.3%
n=7
Jun
29%
−1.4%
n=7
Jul
57%
−0.6%
n=7
Aug
57%
+0.4%
n=7
Sep
29%
−4.2%
n=7
Oct
50%
+0.9%
n=6
Nov
86%
+12.6%
n=7
Dec
43%
−3.8%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Sale | 22,181 @ $3.59 | $80K | −14.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 134,366 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Sale | 18,444 @ $3.59 | $66K | −13.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,922 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | McClymont Donald | director | Sale | 13,384 @ $3.53 | $47K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 481,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Wu Naixi | officer | Sale | 9,226 @ $3.53 | $33K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 165,128 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Wu Naixi | officer | Sale | 8,820 @ $3.53 | $31K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 156,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Wu Naixi | officer | Sale | 3,125 @ $3.59 | $11K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 153,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Wu Naixi | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $3.56 | $21K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 150,058 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | McClymont Donald | director | Sale | 46,928 @ $3.72 | $175K | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 468,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Wu Naixi | officer | Sale | 23,170 @ $3.72 | $86K | −12.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 156,058 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Sale | 17,045 @ $3.72 | $63K | −13.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,797 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | schiller Thomas | director | Sale | 3,138 @ $3.72 | $12K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 487,167 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Parekh Sonalee Elizabeth | director | Sale | 59,932 @ $4.07 | $244K | −37.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 99,857 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Sale | 42,468 @ $4.10 | $174K | −30.5% of holding | −32.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,884 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Parekh Sonalee Elizabeth | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $3.80 | $76K | −11.1% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 159,789 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Sale | 4,356 @ $4.67 | $20K | −3.0% of holding | −24.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 141,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Sale | 1,894 @ $4.67 | $9K | −1.3% of holding | −24.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,352 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | McClymont Donald | director | Sale | 126,496 @ $4.45 | $563K | −23.0% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 424,617 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Sale | 30,207 @ $4.45 | $134K | −17.2% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,602 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Wu Naixi | officer | Sale | 19,640 @ $4.37 | $86K | −12.7% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,425 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | schiller Thomas | director | Sale | 1,833 @ $4.45 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 481,707 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | McClymont Donald | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $4.19 | $209K | −14.0% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 307,363 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Sale | 39,645 @ $4.80 | $190K | −28.7% of holding | −13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,309 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $5.19 | $1.0M | −65.1% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $5.16 | $516K | −48.3% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Sale | 24,734 @ $5.13 | $127K | −15.2% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,954 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Sale | 12,766 @ $5.13 | $66K | −7.3% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,688 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | McClymont Donald | director | Sale | 9,425 @ $5.12 | $48K | −3.0% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 307,363 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Wu Naixi | officer | Sale | 6,652 @ $5.12 | $34K | −5.5% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,787 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Wu Naixi | officer | Sale | 6,246 @ $5.12 | $32K | −4.9% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,439 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 562 @ $5.12 | $3K | −0.5% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Wu Naixi | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $4.94 | $30K | −5.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,787 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 80,200 @ $5.05 | $405K | −43.0% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-29 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 19,800 @ $5.05 | $100K | −15.7% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 225,000 @ $5.31 | $1.2M | −67.9% of holding | −28.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $5.25 | $1.1M | −65.3% of holding | −28.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 29,900 @ $5.28 | $158K | −22.0% of holding | −28.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 175,000 @ $5.06 | $885K | −62.2% of holding | −28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 20,100 @ $5.26 | $106K | −15.9% of holding | −25.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $5.02 | $251K | −32.0% of holding | −24.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $4.78 | $239K | −32.0% of holding | −15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $4.40 | $440K | −48.5% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $4.04 | $202K | −32.0% of holding | +25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $3.76 | $188K | −32.0% of holding | +33.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 43,500 @ $3.54 | $154K | −29.1% of holding | +35.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $3.50 | $23K | −5.8% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Wu Naixi | officer | Sale | 50,873 @ $2.81 | $143K | −28.9% of holding | +43.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,914 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Wu Naixi | officer | Sale | 4,127 @ $2.81 | $12K | −3.3% of holding | +43.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,787 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | McClymont Donald | director | Sale | 18,420 @ $2.99 | $55K | −5.8% of holding | +47.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Wu Naixi | officer | Sale | 5,876 @ $2.99 | $18K | −7.2% of holding | +47.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,787 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Sale | 4,720 @ $2.99 | $14K | −3.3% of holding | +47.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,954 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 3,506 @ $2.99 | $10K | −3.2% of holding | +47.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,169 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $3.17 | $159K | −33.1% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,952 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $3.28 | $328K | −49.8% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,952 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $3.14 | $157K | −33.1% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,952 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | McClymont Donald | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $3.06 | $153K | −15.0% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 282,393 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $2.83 | $142K | −33.1% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,952 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $2.61 | $130K | −33.1% of holding | +22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,952 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $2.59 | $130K | −33.1% of holding | +23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,952 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $2.57 | $129K | −33.1% of holding | +22.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,952 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Aoki Ichiro | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $2.60 | $130K | −33.1% of holding | +23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,952 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
212 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | OWENS JEFFREY J | director | Option exercise | 2,641 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | OWENS JEFFREY J | director | Award / grant | 2,641 | 2,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | OWENS JEFFREY J | director | Option exercise | 2,641 | 227,572 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McClymont Donald | director | Option exercise | 25,969 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McClymont Donald | director | Award / grant | 25,969 | 25,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McClymont Donald | director | Option exercise | 25,969 | 494,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Brink Diane D | director | Option exercise | 3,170 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Brink Diane D | director | Award / grant | 3,170 | 3,170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Brink Diane D | director | Option exercise | 3,170 | 235,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | ALDRICH DAVID J | director | Option exercise | 9,860 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | ALDRICH DAVID J | director | Award / grant | 9,860 | 9,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | ALDRICH DAVID J | director | Option exercise | 9,860 | 263,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wu Naixi | officer | Option exercise | 6,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wu Naixi | officer | Option exercise | 18,046 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wu Naixi | officer | Award / grant | 18,046 | 18,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wu Naixi | officer | Option exercise | 6,250 | 174,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wu Naixi | officer | Option exercise | 18,046 | 168,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 156,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Option exercise | 6,250 | 119,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Option exercise | 6,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | schiller Thomas | director | Option exercise | 8,598 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | schiller Thomas | director | Option exercise | 8,598 | 490,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Option exercise | 32,958 | 129,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wu Naixi | officer | Option exercise | 44,803 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wu Naixi | officer | Award / grant | 44,803 | 44,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wu Naixi | officer | Option exercise | 44,803 | 179,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McClymont Donald | director | Option exercise | 90,752 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McClymont Donald | director | Award / grant | 90,752 | 90,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McClymont Donald | director | Option exercise | 90,752 | 515,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Option exercise | 32,958 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Award / grant | 32,958 | 32,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | schiller Thomas | director | Award / grant | 8,598 | 8,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | McClymont Donald | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Wu Naixi | officer | Award / grant | 173,335 | 173,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | schiller Thomas | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Option exercise | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wittmann Michael | officer | Option exercise | 65,000 | 175,809 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.