Issued 2026-09-25 at $123.89 · now $123.89 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, INCY has typically landed between $110.70 and $141.93 — a range of −10.6% to +14.6% from the issuance price $123.89.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($123.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where INCY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $123.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $123.89 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $125 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $117.83–$132.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $110.7–$141.93
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −53.8% | −53.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-16 | −53.7% | −53.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −53.3% | −53.3% | +0.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-06-29 | +76.8% | −3.5% | +76.8% |
| 2009-06-26 | +67.5% | −6.3% | +67.5% |
| 2009-06-24 | +66.5% | −3.2% | +66.5% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-11-05 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Rollover Study to Provide Continued Treatment for Participants With B-Cell Malignancies Previously Enrolled in Studies of Parsaclisib (INCB050465) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2026-11-20 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety Study of Povorcitinib in Participants With Inadequately Controlled Moderate to Severe Asthma (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-04-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Ruxolitinib Cream in Children (6 to < 12 Years Old) With Nonsegmental Vitiligo (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-09-23 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of Tafasitamab in Adult Participants With Primary Autoimmune Blood Cell Disorders (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2031-01-17 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study of Tacrolimus/Methotrexate/Ruxolitinib Versus Post-Transplant Cyclophosphamide/Tacrolimus/Mycophenolate Mofetil in Non-Myeloablative/Reduced Intensity Conditioning Allogeneic Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplantation (BMT CTN 2203) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$23.5B
market cap
$7.08
EPS (TTM)
16.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$5.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr25.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr24.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.01
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$120.61
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$194.28
- Analyst target · range $99.00–$140.00$110.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$123.89
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+3.1%
n=18
Feb
37%
−1.9%
n=19
Mar
53%
+2.3%
n=19
Apr
53%
+0.7%
n=19
May
68%
+3.5%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.7%
n=19
Jul
68%
+6.4%
n=19
Aug
58%
+4.3%
n=19
Sep
37%
−3.5%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.3%
n=18
Nov
61%
+4.7%
n=18
Dec
50%
+2.3%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Sale | 13,985 @ $120.49 | $1.7M | −7.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 183,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Sale | 9,233 @ $120.50 | $1.1M | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 197,185 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Sale | 10,801 @ $125.56 | $1.4M | −5.6% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Sale | 10,803 @ $120.04 | $1.3M | −5.3% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 194,001 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Sale | 10,640 @ $122.69 | $1.3M | −4.9% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 204,804 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 2,207 @ $123.99 | $274K | −3.5% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 6,055 @ $120.43 | $729K | −9.0% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Sale | 15,888 @ $119.70 | $1.9M | −6.9% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 215,444 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 14,661 @ $119.46 | $1.8M | −14.2% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,679 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 6,171 @ $119.43 | $737K | −7.6% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,989 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 5,332 @ $119.42 | $637K | −6.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,347 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 4,695 @ $119.39 | $561K | −6.3% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,294 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 2,864 @ $119.40 | $342K | −4.1% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,430 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 2,293 @ $119.41 | $274K | −3.6% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,441 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 2,187 @ $119.47 | $261K | −2.6% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,160 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 1,643 @ $119.51 | $196K | −2.4% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,787 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 1,642 @ $119.38 | $196K | −2.5% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,145 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 326 @ $121.69 | $40K | −0.5% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,734 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 85 @ $122.19 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,060 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Stein Steven H | director | Sale | 1,877 @ $114.73 | $215K | −8.2% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,118 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Issa Mohamed Khairie | officer | Sale | 1,093 @ $115.01 | $126K | −1.7% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,940 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Stein Steven H | director | Sale | 28,237 @ $113.05 | $3.2M | −52.0% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,083 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Tray Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,639 @ $100.00 | $264K | −11.1% of holding | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,132 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Tray Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,051 @ $97.35 | $200K | −8.8% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,132 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Clancy Paul J | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $94.93 | $1.4M | −38.7% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,741 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Sale | 18,667 @ $96.50 | $1.8M | −6.6% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 262,692 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Sale | 18,667 @ $94.24 | $1.8M | −7.4% of holding | −3.7% | +19.7% | 234,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Sale | 18,668 @ $100.91 | $1.9M | −7.4% of holding | −5.8% | +13.1% | 234,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Issa Mohamed Khairie | officer | Sale | 10,856 @ $109.07 | $1.2M | −14.1% of holding | −2.1% | −4.5% | 66,132 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Stein Steven H | director | Sale | 15,634 @ $101.70 | $1.6M | −31.4% of holding | +1.0% | +6.2% | 34,203 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Tray Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,774 @ $100.00 | $277K | −10.8% of holding | +1.1% | −2.7% | 22,973 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Tray Thomas | officer | Sale | 600 @ $98.25 | $59K | −2.5% of holding | +5.9% | −2.1% | 22,973 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Morrissey Michael James | officer | Sale | 4,323 @ $97.26 | $420K | −13.6% of holding | +3.9% | −5.6% | 27,507 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Morrissey Michael James | officer | Sale | 53,175 @ $97.29 | $5.2M | −62.6% of holding | +7.3% | −9.7% | 31,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Morrissey Michael James | officer | Sale | 833 @ $97.42 | $81K | −1.0% of holding | +7.3% | −9.7% | 85,005 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 255 @ $94.94 | $24K | −0.4% of holding | +6.7% | −4.0% | 60,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Sale | 5,553 @ $95.58 | $531K | −8.4% of holding | +10.3% | +5.5% | 60,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Stein Steven H | director | Sale | 20,105 @ $102.51 | $2.1M | −24.2% of holding | −0.6% | −11.9% | 63,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Stein Steven H | director | Sale | 2,559 @ $102.96 | $263K | −2.5% of holding | −3.7% | −15.5% | 100,327 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Tray Thomas | officer | Sale | 600 @ $103.00 | $62K | −2.5% of holding | −9.0% | −21.7% | 23,573 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Tray Thomas | officer | Sale | 169 @ $102.00 | $17K | −0.7% of holding | −5.8% | −19.1% | 24,173 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Denton Sheila A. | officer | Sale | 278 @ $104.36 | $29K | −1.0% of holding | −7.1% | −18.8% | 26,569 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Hoppenot Herve | director | Sale | 187,500 @ $105.46 | $19.8M | −36.3% of holding | −11.1% | −16.3% | 329,646 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Stein Steven H | director | Sale | 5,233 @ $102.20 | $535K | −4.8% of holding | −4.2% | −16.2% | 102,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Denton Sheila A. | officer | Sale | 598 @ $101.36 | $61K | −2.2% of holding | −3.7% | −14.0% | 26,569 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Heeson Lee | officer | Sale | 3,074 @ $94.02 | $289K | −9.5% of holding | −0.1% | −9.7% | 29,241 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Denton Sheila A. | officer | Sale | 277 @ $85.13 | $24K | −1.0% of holding | +18.5% | +3.6% | 26,569 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Denton Sheila A. | officer | Sale | 3,501 @ $85.54 | $299K | −11.6% of holding | +14.8% | +8.8% | 26,569 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Denton Sheila A. | officer | Sale | 599 @ $87.65 | $53K | −1.8% of holding | +6.4% | +10.9% | 33,200 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Denton Sheila A. | officer | Sale | 278 @ $83.15 | $23K | −0.8% of holding | +4.0% | +9.1% | 33,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Denton Sheila A. | officer | Sale | 598 @ $84.97 | $51K | −1.8% of holding | −3.9% | +7.4% | 33,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Denton Sheila A. | officer | Sale | 277 @ $86.81 | $24K | −0.8% of holding | −6.0% | +9.6% | 33,200 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Denton Sheila A. | officer | Sale | 598 @ $75.77 | $45K | −1.8% of holding | +9.4% | +19.4% | 33,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Stein Steven H | director | Sale | 3,706 @ $67.94 | $252K | −3.5% of holding | +25.1% | +43.9% | 102,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Flannelly Barry P | director | Sale | 1,340 @ $68.36 | $92K | −3.7% of holding | +21.1% | +41.8% | 35,149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Iyengar Vijay K | director | Sale | 983 @ $68.36 | $67K | −2.4% of holding | +21.1% | +41.8% | 40,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Denton Sheila A. | officer | Sale | 785 @ $68.36 | $54K | −2.3% of holding | +21.1% | +41.8% | 33,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Denton Sheila A. | officer | Sale | 3,330 @ $69.86 | $233K | −11.2% of holding | +22.1% | +39.4% | 26,504 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Flannelly Barry P | director | Sale | 1,192 @ $69.86 | $83K | −3.1% of holding | +22.1% | +39.4% | 37,630 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Iyengar Vijay K | director | Sale | 1,177 @ $69.86 | $82K | −3.2% of holding | +22.1% | +39.4% | 35,929 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
240 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Gardner David H | officer | Withheld for tax | 920 | 15,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Option exercise | 9,233 | 206,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Option exercise | 6,477 | 197,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Option exercise | 4,551 | 190,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Option exercise | 2,957 | 186,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Option exercise | 6,477 | 20,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Option exercise | 2,957 | 4,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Option exercise | 9,233 | 18,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | CAGNONI PABLO J | director | Option exercise | 4,551 | 4,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Basi Ramitpal K | officer | Withheld for tax | 504 | 10,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,207 | 63,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,207 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 6,055 | 67,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 6,055 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 9,459 | 86,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 3,023 | 96,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,864 | 91,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,623 | 98,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 3,148 | 74,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,293 | 102,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,623 | 88,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,918 | 66,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,709 | 71,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,072 | 76,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,284 | 68,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 1,642 | 100,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 1,643 | 93,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 326 | 103,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 85 | 103,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 1,642 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,293 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 85 | 2,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 326 | 6,055 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 3,148 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 9,459 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 3,023 | 202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,072 | 2,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,864 | 191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,709 | 1,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mayes Patrick A | officer | Option exercise | 2,284 | 2,938 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-31 | 2025-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-05-06 | 2024-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-04-05 | 2024-03-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-01-04 | 2023-12-04 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.