Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.38 · now $36.38 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IMVT has typically landed between $29.95 and $47.97 — a range of −17.7% to +31.8% from the issuance price $36.38.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,797 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-06-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IMVT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $36.38 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.31 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.47–$40.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.95–$47.97
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,797 windows spanning 2019-06-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-02-01 | −67.7% | −67.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-01-14 | −63.7% | −63.7% | +0.3% |
| 2021-01-29 | −63.0% | −63.0% | +10.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-09-26 | +127.4% | +0.0% | +137.2% |
| 2020-03-18 | +121.2% | +0.0% | +126.0% |
| 2022-09-23 | +119.7% | −7.4% | +119.7% |
1,797 overlapping windows · 2019-06-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
29%
−8.2%
n=7
Feb
14%
−11.9%
n=7
Mar
14%
−6.9%
n=7
Apr
43%
−0.9%
n=7
May
43%
+9.2%
n=7
Jun
43%
−3.7%
n=7
Jul
63%
+3.6%
n=8
Aug
63%
+7.7%
n=8
Sep
75%
+9.2%
n=8
Oct
71%
+22.9%
n=7
Nov
57%
+5.9%
n=7
Dec
71%
+13.2%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Pande Atul | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $43.27 | $65K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,731 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 3,056 @ $44.16 | $135K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 219,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Pande Atul | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $39.80 | $60K | −1.3% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,731 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-23 | Girao Tiago | officer | Sale | 6,798 @ $38.69 | $263K | −2.7% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 240,798 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 2,857 @ $38.69 | $111K | −1.4% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 205,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 1,930 @ $39.53 | $76K | −0.9% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 222,463 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 1,906 @ $39.53 | $75K | −0.9% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 209,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 1,399 @ $39.53 | $55K | −0.7% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Sale | 1,143 @ $39.53 | $45K | −0.6% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,454 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 106 @ $39.99 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 222,357 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 105 @ $39.99 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 209,674 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 77 @ $39.99 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,198 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Sale | 63 @ $39.99 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,391 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Venker Eric | director | Sale | 3,092 @ $38.48 | $119K | −1.2% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 254,280 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 33,277 @ $38.18 | $1.3M | −13.2% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 218,408 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Sale | 14,982 @ $38.19 | $572K | −7.6% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,439 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 14,748 @ $38.18 | $563K | −6.1% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 227,359 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Girao Tiago | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $38.46 | $385K | −3.9% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 247,596 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 6,723 @ $38.94 | $262K | −3.1% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,685 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 2,966 @ $38.95 | $116K | −1.3% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,393 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Sale | 2,842 @ $38.96 | $111K | −1.5% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 180,597 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Pande Atul | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $38.01 | $57K | −1.3% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,731 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Sale | 2,634 @ $35.39 | $93K | −1.4% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 180,597 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Pande Atul | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $34.02 | $51K | −1.3% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,731 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Sale | 210,468 @ $33.56 | $7.1M | −73.9% of holding | +16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Sale | 11,483 @ $32.64 | $375K | −3.9% of holding | +16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 284,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Pande Atul | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $32.00 | $192K | −4.9% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,731 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 1,698 @ $32.95 | $56K | −0.7% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,107 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 1,168 @ $32.15 | $38K | −0.5% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 243,805 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 249 @ $30.41 | $8K | −0.1% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 244,973 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Susman Robert Graham | director | Sale | 2,502 @ $27.17 | $68K | −6.4% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,394 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-23 | Girao Tiago | officer | Sale | 25,760 @ $29.62 | $763K | −9.4% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 247,596 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 2,754 @ $29.62 | $82K | −1.1% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 251,685 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 8,722 @ $24.83 | $217K | −3.4% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 245,222 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 8,614 @ $24.83 | $214K | −3.3% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 255,957 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Sale | 5,165 @ $24.83 | $128K | −2.7% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,231 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 1,518 @ $24.83 | $38K | −0.6% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 254,439 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Venker Eric | director | Sale | 12,820 @ $24.04 | $308K | −37.9% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,970 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Venker Eric | director | Sale | 1,409 @ $24.60 | $35K | −6.7% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,561 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Sale | 2,877 @ $24.97 | $72K | −1.9% of holding | +16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,053 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 1,437 @ $26.98 | $39K | −0.8% of holding | −0.2% | +50.1% | 172,074 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 942 @ $28.90 | $27K | −0.6% of holding | −0.2% | +50.1% | 170,273 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 859 @ $28.16 | $24K | −0.5% of holding | −0.2% | +50.1% | 171,215 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 1,977 @ $26.03 | $51K | −1.0% of holding | +1.6% | +43.0% | 197,634 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 1,148 @ $26.51 | $30K | −0.6% of holding | +1.0% | +38.5% | 199,666 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 55 @ $26.92 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | +1.0% | +38.5% | 199,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Sale | 8,529 @ $26.78 | $228K | −5.3% of holding | −2.2% | +34.4% | 152,214 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Sale | 2,284 @ $27.38 | $63K | −1.5% of holding | −2.2% | +34.4% | 149,930 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Roivant Sciences Ltd. | director | Purchase | 16,666,666 @ $21.00 | $350.0M | +17.2% of holding | +2.0% | +16.5% | 113,317,007 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Sale | 19,351 @ $23.14 | $448K | −17.9% of holding | +11.2% | +25.4% | 88,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Hughes Douglas J. | director | Sale | 13,091 @ $23.14 | $303K | −9.6% of holding | +11.2% | +25.4% | 122,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Sale | 2,898 @ $23.95 | $69K | −3.3% of holding | +11.2% | +25.4% | 85,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Hughes Douglas J. | director | Sale | 1,909 @ $23.96 | $46K | −1.6% of holding | +11.2% | +25.4% | 120,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 10,251 @ $23.54 | $241K | −5.5% of holding | +15.6% | +32.8% | 175,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Sale | 2,375 @ $23.97 | $57K | −1.4% of holding | +15.6% | +32.8% | 173,511 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | Geffner Michael | officer | Sale | 2,595 @ $19.03 | $49K | −1.2% of holding | +22.9% | +43.7% | 217,958 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 2,520 @ $19.03 | $48K | −1.2% of holding | +22.9% | +43.7% | 200,814 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 1,585 @ $16.30 | $26K | −0.8% of holding | +47.6% | +50.8% | 203,334 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Geffner Michael | officer | Sale | 1,272 @ $16.30 | $21K | −0.6% of holding | +47.6% | +50.8% | 220,553 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Stout Jay S | officer | Sale | 2,805 @ $18.15 | $51K | −1.4% of holding | −19.5% | +33.1% | 204,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
83 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Pande Atul | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 118,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Pande Atul | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 65,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Pande Atul | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 118,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Pande Atul | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 66,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Venker Eric | director | Disposition | 86,629 | 257,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Venker Eric | director | Option exercise | 92,188 | 344,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Venker Eric | director | Option exercise | 92,188 | 1,014,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 17,824 | 198,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Girao Tiago | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 257,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Pande Atul | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 118,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 17,824 | 53,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Pande Atul | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 68,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Girao Tiago | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 283,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Pande Atul | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 118,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Pande Atul | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 69,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Option exercise | 77,181 | 280,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Option exercise | 71,492 | 202,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Option exercise | 16,260 | 296,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Option exercise | 31,668 | 131,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Option exercise | 77,181 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Option exercise | 31,668 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Option exercise | 71,492 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Option exercise | 16,260 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Pande Atul | director | Option exercise | 6,000 | 122,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Pande Atul | director | Option exercise | 6,000 | 270,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Stout Jay S | officer | Award / grant | 96,851 | 96,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Award / grant | 83,671 | 253,944 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Susman Robert Graham | director | Award / grant | 13,880 | 38,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Susman Robert Graham | director | Award / grant | 7,061 | 7,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Bauer Jake | director | Award / grant | 13,880 | 38,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Bauer Jake | director | Award / grant | 7,061 | 7,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Award / grant | 13,880 | 99,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Fromkin Andrew J. | director | Award / grant | 7,061 | 7,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Torti Frank | director | Award / grant | 174,189 | 1,009,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Stout Jay S | officer | Award / grant | 66,937 | 264,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Gloria Melanie | officer | Award / grant | 121,063 | 121,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Hughes Douglas J. | director | Award / grant | 13,880 | 134,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Hughes Douglas J. | director | Award / grant | 7,061 | 7,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 41,343 | 188,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Van Tuyl Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 59,820 | 59,820 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.