Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.25 · now $4.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IMSR has typically landed between $2.52 and $6.04 — a range of −40.8% to +42.2% from the issuance price $4.25.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
207 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-10-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IMSR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.25 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.86 (-9.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.06–$4.66
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.52–$6.04
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-10-24 | −56.6% | −56.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-22 | −54.0% | −54.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-27 | −52.7% | −52.7% | +6.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-12-19 | +71.4% | −21.1% | +71.4% |
| 2025-12-22 | +65.6% | −18.4% | +77.2% |
| 2025-12-26 | +51.7% | −10.9% | +93.4% |
207 overlapping windows · 2025-10-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Cowan Pamela Beth | officer | Award / grant | 299,401 | 299,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | McCarthy Kathryn Ann | director | Award / grant | 2,049 | 2,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-12 | LeBlanc David Michael | director | Award / grant | 32,787 | 32,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-12 | Smith William F. | officer | Award / grant | 32,787 | 32,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-12 | Thrasher Brian Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 49,917 | 49,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-12 | Thrasher Brian Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 58,236 | 58,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-12 | Millsap Steven M. | officer | Award / grant | 49,917 | 49,917 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | MacDiarmid John Hugh | director | Award / grant | 5,865 | 5,865 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | MacDiarmid John Hugh | director | Award / grant | 1,029 | 6,894 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Matthews Shawn | director | Award / grant | 4,190 | 4,190 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Matthews Shawn | director | Award / grant | 735 | 4,925 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Hill David John | director | Award / grant | 3,352 | 3,352 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Hill David John | director | Award / grant | 588 | 3,940 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | JOHNSON WILLIAM D | director | Award / grant | 5,865 | 5,865 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | JOHNSON WILLIAM D | director | Award / grant | 1,720 | 7,585 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Jones Robert Wood | director | Award / grant | 5,865 | 5,865 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Jones Robert Wood | director | Award / grant | 1,029 | 6,894 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Pardee Charles G | director | Award / grant | 5,027 | 5,027 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Pardee Charles G | director | Award / grant | 882 | 5,909 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | BUCKMAN FREDERICK W | director | Award / grant | 6,703 | 6,703 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | BUCKMAN FREDERICK W | director | Award / grant | 1,176 | 7,879 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-06 | Matthews Shawn | director | Other acquisition | 3,500,000 | 775,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-06 | Matthews Shawn | director | Other acquisition | 2,920,000 | 2,755,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-06 | Matthews Shawn | director | Other acquisition | 3,500,000 | 775,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-06 | Matthews Shawn | director | Other acquisition | 2,920,000 | 2,755,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-06 | Matthews Shawn | director | Other acquisition | 3,500,000 | 775,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-06 | Matthews Shawn | director | Other acquisition | 2,920,000 | 2,755,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Matthews Shawn | director | Other acquisition | 4,275,000 | 4,275,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Matthews Shawn | director | Other acquisition | 1,267,599 | 1,267,599 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Irish Simon | director | Award / grant | 166,298 | 166,298 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Matthews Shawn | director | Other acquisition | 533,514 | 533,514 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Loveless Jacob | director | Other acquisition | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Brenner Andrew Scott | other | Other acquisition | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Connor Michael J | director | Other acquisition | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Matthews Shawn | director | Other acquisition | 5,675,000 | 5,675,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Brenner Andrew Scott | other | Other acquisition | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Connor Michael J | director | Other acquisition | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Matthews Shawn | director | Other acquisition | 533,514 | 533,514 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Matthews Shawn | director | Other acquisition | 5,675,000 | 5,675,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Loveless Jacob | director | Other acquisition | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.