Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.45 · now $4.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IMRX has typically landed between $2.85 and $7.37 — a range of −35.9% to +65.7% from the issuance price $4.45.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,267 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IMRX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.45 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.2 (-5.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.48–$4.93
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.85–$7.37
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-02-14 | −70.5% | −70.5% | +4.3% |
| 2024-03-07 | −68.3% | −71.4% | +0.0% |
| 2024-03-08 | −66.6% | −70.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-08-21 | +186.6% | −6.3% | +186.6% |
| 2024-08-22 | +173.3% | +0.0% | +205.7% |
| 2024-08-23 | +172.9% | +0.0% | +200.0% |
1,267 overlapping windows · 2021-07-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Atebimetinib + GnP as a First Line Treatment in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Zeskind Benjamin J. | director | Purchase | 2,400 @ $4.56 | $11K | +0.1% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,315,252 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Hall Brett Matthew | officer | Purchase | 6,035 @ $4.15 | $25K | +1.6% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 382,531 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Brakewood Harold Eugene | officer | Purchase | 5,250 @ $4.76 | $25K | +90.5% of holding | +10.6% | −11.4% | 11,050 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Schall Thomas J. | director | Purchase | 21,645 @ $4.67 | $101K | +40.9% of holding | +11.7% | −15.3% | 74,530 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Hall Brett Matthew | officer | Purchase | 2,298 @ $4.57 | $11K | +0.6% of holding | +11.7% | −15.3% | 376,496 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Neufeld Leah R | officer | Purchase | 2,626 @ $4.15 | $11K | +11.2% of holding | +21.6% | +6.7% | 25,970 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Feinberg Peter | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $4.35 | $87K | +17.3% of holding | +20.1% | +13.1% | 135,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Feinberg Peter | director | Purchase | 7,500 @ $6.67 | $50K | +5.0% of holding | +6.3% | −12.6% | 156,766 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Bookman Michael | officer | Purchase | 1,020 @ $6.83 | $7K | +26.5% of holding | −0.9% | −13.0% | 4,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Neufeld Leah R | officer | Purchase | 800 @ $6.38 | $5K | +3.5% of holding | −0.9% | −13.0% | 23,344 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Morales Mallory | officer | Purchase | 300 @ $6.39 | $2K | +1.1% of holding | −0.9% | −13.0% | 27,533 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Feinberg Peter | director | Purchase | 7,500 @ $7.03 | $53K | +5.3% of holding | −13.9% | −22.8% | 149,266 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Feinberg Peter | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $7.18 | $36K | +3.7% of holding | −7.4% | −20.5% | 141,766 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Zeskind Benjamin J. | director | Purchase | 7,015 @ $3.53 | $25K | +0.3% of holding | −6.3% | +72.7% | 2,312,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | HAUSMAN DIANA | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $3.62 | $11K | ownership Δ n/a | −6.3% | +72.7% | 3,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | HAUSMAN DIANA | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $3.60 | $9K | ownership Δ n/a | −6.3% | +72.7% | 2,500 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Neufeld Leah R | officer | Purchase | 700 @ $3.57 | $2K | +7.0% of holding | −6.3% | +72.7% | 10,729 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Zeskind Benjamin J. | director | Purchase | 2,985 @ $3.38 | $10K | +0.1% of holding | −2.3% | +83.8% | 2,305,837 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | Schall Thomas J. | director | Purchase | 9,500 @ $3.66 | $35K | +21.9% of holding | +0.9% | +77.7% | 52,885 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | Hall Brett Matthew | officer | Purchase | 6,007 @ $2.43 | $15K | +1.7% of holding | +62.4% | +117.5% | 359,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Hall Brett Matthew | officer | Purchase | 7,415 @ $2.70 | $20K | +2.1% of holding | +59.0% | +107.3% | 353,311 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Brakewood Harold Eugene | officer | Purchase | 1,900 @ $2.53 | $5K | +48.7% of holding | +59.0% | +107.3% | 5,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Feinberg Peter | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $2.53 | $63K | +22.4% of holding | +47.5% | +85.5% | 136,766 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Zeskind Benjamin J. | director | Purchase | 21,000 @ $2.39 | $50K | +0.9% of holding | +47.5% | +85.5% | 2,302,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Schall Thomas J. | director | Purchase | 40,485 @ $2.21 | $89K | +1396.0% of holding | +121.6% | +201.1% | 43,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
36 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Gengos Andrew | director | Award / grant | 650,000 | 650,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | CARPENTER ROBERT J | director | Award / grant | 33,350 | 33,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Feinberg Peter | director | Award / grant | 33,350 | 33,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | HAUSMAN DIANA | director | Award / grant | 33,350 | 33,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | KEATING LAURIE | director | Award / grant | 33,350 | 33,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Schall Thomas J. | director | Award / grant | 33,350 | 33,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Neufeld Leah R | officer | Award / grant | 3,628 | 29,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Brakewood Harold Eugene | officer | Award / grant | 140,000 | 140,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Matushansky Igor | officer | Award / grant | 140,000 | 140,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Morales Mallory | officer | Award / grant | 140,000 | 140,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Neufeld Leah R | officer | Award / grant | 140,000 | 140,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Bookman Michael | officer | Award / grant | 176,000 | 176,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Zeskind Benjamin J. | director | Award / grant | 688,000 | 688,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Hall Brett Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 344,000 | 344,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | KEATING LAURIE | director | Award / grant | 7,888 | 7,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Feinberg Peter | director | Award / grant | 7,888 | 7,888 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Hall Brett Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 14,880 | 374,198 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Morales Mallory | officer | Award / grant | 14,497 | 27,233 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Neufeld Leah R | officer | Award / grant | 11,815 | 22,544 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | CARPENTER ROBERT J | director | Award / grant | 33,350 | 33,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Feinberg Peter | director | Award / grant | 33,350 | 33,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Schall Thomas J. | director | Award / grant | 33,350 | 33,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | HAUSMAN DIANA | director | Award / grant | 33,350 | 33,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | BERMAN ANN E | director | Award / grant | 33,350 | 33,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | KEATING LAURIE | director | Award / grant | 33,350 | 33,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-21 | Matushansky Igor | officer | Award / grant | 118,000 | 118,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Neufeld Leah R | officer | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Morales Mallory | officer | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Bookman Michael | officer | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Brakewood Harold Eugene | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Zeskind Benjamin J. | director | Award / grant | 480,000 | 480,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Hall Brett Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 240,000 | 240,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | BERMAN ANN E | director | Award / grant | 23,485 | 23,485 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | BERMAN ANN E | director | Award / grant | 17,614 | 17,614 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Feinberg Peter | director | Award / grant | 23,485 | 23,485 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | KEATING LAURIE | director | Award / grant | 23,485 | 23,485 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.