Issued 2026-09-16 at $228.93 · now $228.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ILMN has typically landed between $186.57 and $270.51 — a range of −18.5% to +18.2% from the issuance price $228.93.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($228.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ILMN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $228.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $228.93 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $227.9 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $208.7–$247.11
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $186.57–$270.51
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2011-09-13 | −48.1% | −48.1% | +2.9% |
| 2011-09-14 | −47.4% | −49.5% | +0.0% |
| 2011-09-08 | −45.9% | −45.9% | +2.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2011-12-22 | +89.7% | +0.0% | +89.7% |
| 2011-12-23 | +80.9% | +0.0% | +89.5% |
| 2011-12-27 | +73.4% | −1.2% | +85.1% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 100,650 @ $218.39 | $22.0M | −11.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 781,701 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-04 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 11,351 @ $219.18 | $2.5M | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 770,350 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-04 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $217.28 | $1.6M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 882,351 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 14,196 @ $217.29 | $3.1M | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 929,906 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 13,717 @ $219.41 | $3.0M | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 906,468 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 13,261 @ $216.38 | $2.9M | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 944,102 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 9,961 @ $221.55 | $2.2M | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 889,851 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 9,721 @ $218.33 | $2.1M | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 920,185 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 8,439 @ $215.20 | $1.8M | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 957,363 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 6,656 @ $220.17 | $1.5M | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 899,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 57,488 @ $213.20 | $12.3M | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 976,422 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 10,620 @ $213.73 | $2.3M | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 965,802 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 54,309 @ $227.67 | $12.4M | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,113,107 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-27 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 28,439 @ $230.54 | $6.6M | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,043,315 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-27 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 24,363 @ $228.64 | $5.6M | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,088,744 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-27 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 16,990 @ $229.72 | $3.9M | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,071,754 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-27 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 9,405 @ $231.23 | $2.2M | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,033,910 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-27 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 4,873 @ $226.74 | $1.1M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,167,416 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 53,123 @ $225.69 | $12.0M | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,187,496 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 38,213 @ $224.72 | $8.6M | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,240,619 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 14,782 @ $226.50 | $3.3M | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,172,714 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 425 @ $227.22 | $97K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,172,289 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 92,776 @ $225.26 | $20.9M | −6.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,317,075 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 38,201 @ $226.13 | $8.6M | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,278,874 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 42 @ $226.79 | $10K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,278,832 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 133,256 @ $219.47 | $29.2M | −8.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,413,734 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 86,825 @ $218.60 | $19.0M | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,546,990 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 13,668 @ $214.64 | $2.9M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,663,969 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 13,050 @ $212.65 | $2.8M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,684,458 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 12,602 @ $216.44 | $2.7M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,642,002 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 9,365 @ $215.61 | $2.0M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,654,604 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 8,187 @ $217.84 | $1.8M | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,633,815 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 7,151 @ $211.54 | $1.5M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,697,508 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 6,821 @ $213.81 | $1.5M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,677,637 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 4,528 @ $210.45 | $953K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,704,659 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 3,883 @ $220.13 | $855K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,409,851 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 71,939 @ $213.36 | $15.3M | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,821,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 42,218 @ $214.57 | $9.1M | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,779,043 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 34,009 @ $211.90 | $7.2M | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,923,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 29,805 @ $212.83 | $6.3M | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,893,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 23,638 @ $210.66 | $5.0M | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,957,014 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 21,147 @ $217.72 | $4.6M | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,724,228 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 18,405 @ $215.62 | $4.0M | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,760,638 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 15,263 @ $216.88 | $3.3M | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,745,375 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 9,348 @ $219.82 | $2.1M | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,709,187 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 9,078 @ $209.68 | $1.9M | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,980,652 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 5,693 @ $218.46 | $1.2M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,718,535 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 3,563 @ $208.55 | $743K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,989,730 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 1,132 @ $207.65 | $235K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,993,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 57,544 @ $203.16 | $11.7M | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,011,997 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 19,884 @ $202.37 | $4.0M | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,069,541 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 12,813 @ $205.00 | $2.6M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,994,425 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 4,759 @ $204.16 | $972K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,007,238 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Wedel Christensen Jakob | officer | Sale | 1,033 @ $191.52 | $198K | −6.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,023 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 118,753 @ $199.87 | $23.7M | −5.3% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,133,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 68,047 @ $198.97 | $13.5M | −2.9% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,252,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 52,249 @ $198.18 | $10.4M | −2.2% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,320,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 30,398 @ $201.37 | $6.1M | −1.4% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,103,247 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 11,372 @ $201.80 | $2.3M | −0.5% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,091,875 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Meister Keith A. | director | Sale | 2,450 @ $203.28 | $498K | −0.1% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,089,425 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
147 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Coletti Julie Ann | officer | Award / grant | 4,549 | 4,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Coletti Julie Ann | officer | Award / grant | 5,307 | 5,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Coletti Julie Ann | officer | Award / grant | 14,214 | 18,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Barnard Steven | officer | Withheld for tax | 408 | 40,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sullivan Michael C | officer | Award / grant | 4,503 | 4,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sullivan Michael C | officer | Award / grant | 5,254 | 5,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Award / grant | 167 | 11,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Meister Keith A. | director | Award / grant | 142 | 6,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Skovronsky Daniel | director | Award / grant | 1,674 | 1,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Meister Keith A. | director | Other acquisition | 24,562 | 3,500,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Meister Keith A. | director | Exercise | 24,562 | 3,524,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Meister Keith A. | director | Exercise | 24,562 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Meister Keith A. | director | Exercise | 24,562 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | RICHO ANNA | director | Award / grant | 2,072 | 8,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | SIEGEL SUSAN E | director | Award / grant | 2,072 | 16,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Gottlieb Scott | director | Award / grant | 2,072 | 14,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | KING DAVID P | director | Award / grant | 2,072 | 2,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | DORSA CAROLINE | director | Award / grant | 2,072 | 15,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | SCHILLER PHILIP W | director | Award / grant | 2,072 | 22,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Award / grant | 2,072 | 10,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Meister Keith A. | director | Award / grant | 2,072 | 6,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | DORSA CAROLINE | director | Withheld for tax | 1,512 | 13,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Meister Keith A. | director | Other acquisition | 255,378 | 3,829,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Meister Keith A. | director | Exercise | 255,378 | 4,084,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Meister Keith A. | director | Exercise | 255,378 | 24,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Meister Keith A. | director | Exercise | 255,378 | 24,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Meister Keith A. | director | Other acquisition | 79,568 | 3,829,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Meister Keith A. | director | Exercise | 79,568 | 3,909,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Meister Keith A. | director | Exercise | 79,568 | 279,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Meister Keith A. | director | Exercise | 79,568 | 279,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Meister Keith A. | director | Other acquisition | 9,236 | 3,829,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Meister Keith A. | director | Exercise | 9,236 | 3,838,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Meister Keith A. | director | Exercise | 9,236 | 359,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Meister Keith A. | director | Exercise | 9,236 | 359,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Wedel Christensen Jakob | officer | Withheld for tax | 233 | 15,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Ullem Scott B. | director | Award / grant | 190 | 8,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Meister Keith A. | director | Award / grant | 161 | 4,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Thaysen Jacob | director | Award / grant | 30,022 | 30,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Thaysen Jacob | director | Award / grant | 25,734 | 109,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Dhingra Ankur | officer | Award / grant | 10,918 | 10,918 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-09 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | purchase | 2025-05-15 | 2025-04-01 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | purchase | 2025-04-18 | 2025-04-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
| Michael C. Burgess | House | sale | 2024-10-01 | 2024-08-30 | $15–50K |
| Michael C. Burgess | House | sale | 2024-09-24 | 2024-09-03 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.