Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.71 · now $14.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IIIV has typically landed between $12.24 and $17.23 — a range of −16.8% to +17.2% from the issuance price $14.71.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,049 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-06-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IIIV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.71 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.72 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.7–$15.74
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.24–$17.23
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −56.0% | −57.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −56.0% | −56.0% | +3.1% |
| 2020-02-21 | −55.6% | −55.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-21 | +49.2% | +0.0% | +51.8% |
| 2018-08-15 | +46.7% | +0.0% | +46.7% |
| 2020-04-20 | +45.9% | −3.9% | +45.9% |
2,049 overlapping windows · 2018-06-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | DAILY GREGORY S | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $19.23 | $962K | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | CHRISTIANS PAUL | officer | Sale | 6,122 @ $23.23 | $142K | −16.4% of holding | −2.6% | −44.5% | 31,250 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | WILDS DAVID M | director | Sale | 7,550 @ $24.50 | $185K | −100.0% of holding | +9.0% | −24.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | WILDS DAVID M | director | Purchase | 7,550 @ $24.50 | $185K | +2.9% of holding | +9.0% | −24.4% | 268,207 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | CHRISTIANS PAUL | officer | Sale | 9,000 @ $23.27 | $209K | −16.4% of holding | +12.0% | −24.2% | 45,818 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | CHRISTIANS PAUL | officer | Sale | 3,292 @ $23.78 | $78K | −5.7% of holding | +10.1% | −22.9% | 54,818 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | STANFORD FREDERICK | officer | Sale | 11,347 @ $24.21 | $275K | −20.6% of holding | +5.2% | −31.8% | 43,653 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | MAPLE PAUL | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $31.04 | $78K | −7.0% of holding | −1.5% | −26.8% | 33,269 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | CHRISTIANS PAUL | officer | Sale | 1,890 @ $31.40 | $59K | −4.2% of holding | −0.4% | −31.8% | 43,110 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | MCKENNA TIMOTHY | director | Sale | 6,882 @ $31.81 | $219K | −64.0% of holding | −5.3% | −40.1% | 3,876 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | SMITH GEOFFREY C. | officer | Sale | 8,404 @ $26.56 | $223K | −13.3% of holding | −11.2% | −6.4% | 55,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-13 | WILDS DAVID M | director | Sale | 218,400 @ $24.81 | $5.4M | −100.0% of holding | −4.8% | +1.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | HARRISON JOHN C. | director | Sale | 78,597 @ $24.81 | $1.9M | −100.0% of holding | −4.8% | +1.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | HARVEY ROBERT BURTON | director | Sale | 40,365 @ $24.81 | $1.0M | −100.0% of holding | −4.8% | +1.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | HARVEY ROBERT BURTON | director | Sale | 26,980 @ $24.82 | $670K | −100.0% of holding | −4.8% | +1.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | HARVEY ROBERT BURTON | director | Sale | 4,515 @ $24.76 | $112K | −100.0% of holding | −4.8% | +1.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
103 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | STANFORD FREDERICK | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,626 | 35,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | SMITH GEOFFREY C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,338 | 56,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | WHITSON CLAY M | director | Withheld for tax | 4,337 | 70,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | CHRISTIANS PAUL | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,878 | 37,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | MAPLE PAUL | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,349 | 39,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | LAISURE CHRISTOPHER | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,456 | 52,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | MCKENNA TIMOTHY | director | Award / grant | 6,496 | 10,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | CHRISTIANS PAUL | officer | Award / grant | 135,000 | 135,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | SMITH GEOFFREY C. | officer | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | STANFORD FREDERICK | officer | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | WHITSON CLAY M | director | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | WILDS DAVID M | director | Award / grant | 6,496 | 10,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | MORGAN DAVID K. | director | Award / grant | 6,496 | 20,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | COURTNEY ELIZABETH S. | director | Award / grant | 6,496 | 10,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | HARRISON JOHN C. | director | Award / grant | 6,496 | 10,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Jenkins Decosta | director | Award / grant | 6,496 | 10,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | LAISURE CHRISTOPHER | officer | Award / grant | 135,000 | 135,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | MAPLE PAUL | officer | Award / grant | 135,000 | 135,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | WILDS DAVID M | director | Other acquisition | 7,550 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | WILDS DAVID M | director | Other acquisition | 7,550 | 268,207 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-16 | CHRISTIANS PAUL | officer | Withheld for tax | 305 | 41,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | SMITH GEOFFREY C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,403 | 60,633 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | LAISURE CHRISTOPHER | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,903 | 54,797 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | MAPLE PAUL | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,903 | 42,366 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | WHITSON CLAY M | director | Withheld for tax | 5,903 | 75,265 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | CHRISTIANS PAUL | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,653 | 41,555 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | STANFORD FREDERICK | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,653 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | WHITSON CLAY M | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 81,168 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | CHRISTIANS PAUL | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 58,110 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | MAPLE PAUL | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 48,269 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | STANFORD FREDERICK | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | SMITH GEOFFREY C. | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | LAISURE CHRISTOPHER | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 60,700 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-21 | SMITH GEOFFREY C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,964 | 68,036 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | MCKENNA TIMOTHY | director | Withheld for tax | 24,064 | 10,758 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | MCKENNA TIMOTHY | director | Option exercise | 11,508 | 34,822 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | MCKENNA TIMOTHY | director | Option exercise | 11,508 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | MCKENNA TIMOTHY | director | Option exercise | 10,297 | 23,314 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | MCKENNA TIMOTHY | director | Option exercise | 10,297 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | MCKENNA TIMOTHY | director | Option exercise | 9,141 | 13,017 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.