IIIN · TickerCove

IIINInsteel Industries, Inc.Industrials · Manufacturing - Metal Fabricationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $30.25 · now $30.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IIIN has typically landed between $25.68 and $35.11 — a range of −15.1% to +16.1% from the issuance price $30.25.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($30.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$30.25 · 43% of range

$24.45 low$38.04 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.6%

typical move · IQR 12.9%

−15.1%worst (p90)+16.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where IIIN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $30.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $30.25 (+0.0%)
typical $30.43 (+0.6%)
middle 50% $28.48–$32.37
90% range $25.68–$35.11

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−50.3%	−50.3%	+3.0%
2020-02-20	−49.8%	−51.7%	+0.0%
2008-09-16	−48.8%	−48.8%	+7.1%
3 best
2009-03-05	+64.4%	+0.0%	+64.4%
2016-10-26	+62.6%	−0.1%	+62.6%
2020-03-18	+57.2%	+0.0%	+60.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−1.6%

n=20

Feb

60%

+2.3%

n=20

Mar

40%

−0.7%

n=20

Apr

60%

+4.4%

n=20

May

55%

+0.9%

n=20

Jun

55%

+1.6%

n=20

Jul

40%

+0.4%

n=20

Aug

35%

−0.4%

n=20

Sep

50%

−1.2%

n=20

Oct

30%

−5.1%

n=20

Nov

85%

+10.0%

n=20

Dec

60%

+3.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-27	Wagner Richard	officer	Sale	1,640 @ $30.31	$50K	−3.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	40,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-26	Wagner Richard	officer	Sale	1,679 @ $37.67	$63K	−4.0% of holding	−5.6%	−31.9%	40,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-04	York James R.	officer	Sale	600 @ $38.50	$23K	−6.4% of holding	−3.6%	−13.7%	8,843	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26	Wagner Richard	officer	Sale	4,366 @ $38.42	$168K	−9.7% of holding	−3.3%	−5.5%	40,660	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-22	York James R.	officer	Sale	3,000 @ $38.50	$116K	−24.1% of holding	−2.4%	−7.0%	9,443	Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-01-21	Wagner Richard	officer	Sale	13 @ $28.04	$365	−0.0% of holding	+6.8%	+29.9%	42,166	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-19	Wagner Richard	officer	Purchase	21 @ $28.57	$600	+0.0% of holding	−3.5%	+21.4%	42,179	Form 4 · filed 35 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

204 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-14	WOLTZ H O III	director	Withheld for tax	1,473	495,446	Form 4
2026-08-14	Southern Elizabeth Carroll	officer	Withheld for tax	941	1,479	Form 4
2026-08-14	Wagner Richard	officer	Withheld for tax	578	41,640	Form 4
2026-08-14	Jafroodi Scot R	officer	Withheld for tax	526	49,731	Form 4
2026-08-14	York James R.	officer	Withheld for tax	344	10,530	Form 4
2026-08-14	Wagner Richard	officer	Option exercise	2,218	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	Southern Elizabeth Carroll	officer	Option exercise	2,420	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	Jafroodi Scot R	officer	Option exercise	2,017	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	WOLTZ H O III	director	Option exercise	5,647	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	York James R.	officer	Option exercise	1,210	0	Form 4
2026-08-14	York James R.	officer	Option exercise	1,210	10,874	Form 4
2026-08-14	Wagner Richard	officer	Option exercise	2,218	42,218	Form 4
2026-08-14	WOLTZ H O III	director	Option exercise	5,647	496,919	Form 4
2026-08-14	Jafroodi Scot R	officer	Option exercise	2,017	50,257	Form 4
2026-08-14	Jafroodi Scot R	officer	Option exercise	2,017	50,257	Form 4
2026-08-14	Southern Elizabeth Carroll	officer	Option exercise	2,420	2,420	Form 4
2026-08-14	York James R.	officer	Option exercise	1,210	10,874	Form 4
2026-08-14	WOLTZ H O III	director	Option exercise	5,647	496,919	Form 4
2026-08-14	Wagner Richard	officer	Option exercise	2,218	42,218	Form 4
2026-08-14	Southern Elizabeth Carroll	officer	Option exercise	2,420	2,420	Form 4
2026-08-14	York James R.	officer	Option exercise	1,210	10,874	Form 4
2026-08-14	Wagner Richard	officer	Option exercise	2,218	42,218	Form 4
2026-08-14	WOLTZ H O III	director	Option exercise	5,647	496,919	Form 4
2026-08-14	Southern Elizabeth Carroll	officer	Option exercise	2,420	2,420	Form 4
2026-08-14	Jafroodi Scot R	officer	Option exercise	2,017	50,257	Form 4
2026-08-14	Southern Elizabeth Carroll	officer	Option exercise	2,420	2,420	Form 4
2026-08-14	York James R.	officer	Option exercise	1,210	10,874	Form 4
2026-08-14	Jafroodi Scot R	officer	Option exercise	2,017	50,257	Form 4
2026-08-14	Wagner Richard	officer	Option exercise	2,218	42,218	Form 4
2026-08-14	WOLTZ H O III	director	Option exercise	5,647	496,919	Form 4
2026-08-10	Southern Elizabeth Carroll	officer	Award / grant	2,684	2,684	Form 4
2026-08-10	WOLTZ H O III	director	Award / grant	8,697	8,697	Form 4
2026-08-10	WOLTZ H O III	director	Award / grant	20,132	20,132	Form 4
2026-08-10	Wagner Richard	officer	Award / grant	2,126	2,126	Form 4
2026-08-10	Wagner Richard	officer	Award / grant	4,921	4,921	Form 4
2026-08-10	Jafroodi Scot R	officer	Award / grant	1,933	1,933	Form 4
2026-08-10	Jafroodi Scot R	officer	Award / grant	4,474	4,474	Form 4
2026-08-10	York James R.	officer	Award / grant	1,160	1,160	Form 4
2026-08-10	York James R.	officer	Award / grant	2,684	2,684	Form 4
2026-08-10	Southern Elizabeth Carroll	officer	Award / grant	1,160	1,160	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i