IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc.Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $84.40 · now $84.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IFF has typically landed between $71.11 and $95.07 — a range of −15.7% to +12.6% from the issuance price $84.40.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($84.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where IFF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $84.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$71.11worst · -15.7%$95.07best · +12.6%
  • now $84.4 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $84.92 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $80.29–$89.56
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $71.11–$95.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−28.7%−28.7%+0.0%
2008-10-13−27.6%−27.6%+0.0%
2020-02-11−27.6%−27.6%+1.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+32.8%+0.0%+36.1%
2020-04-03+30.3%+0.0%+34.8%
2009-03-05+29.0%+0.0%+29.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$19.4B
market cap
$3.27
EPS (TTM)
23.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$10.9B
'20'25
Net income−$361M
'20'25
Free cash flow$256M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-3.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-2.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.47
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $84.40$-5.17$102.42
  • DCF (intrinsic)$2.25
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$78.05
  • Analyst target · range $75.00–$95.00$90.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$84.40

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+1.2%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.8%
n=19
Apr
79%
+3.2%
n=19
May
53%
−0.6%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.9%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
47%
−2.1%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Oct
72%
+0.8%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.7%
n=18
Dec
39%
−0.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$88$592026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $476K — Teles de Mendonca Ana Paula2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $85K — Birenkrant Marc2026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $755K — DeVeau Michael2026-06-01: 2 insider purchases, $20.3M — FRIBOURG PAUL J …2026-03-13: 1 insider purchase, $933K — Fyrwald J Erik2026-03-12: 3 insider purchases, $11.0M — FRIBOURG PAUL J, Fyrwald J Erik …2026-03-06: 1 insider purchase, $222 — FRIBOURG PAUL J2026-02-09: 1 insider purchase, $11K — FRIBOURG PAUL J2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $190 — FRIBOURG PAUL J2025-12-12: 1 insider purchase, $197K — Landsman Stephen N2025-12-10: 1 insider sale, $2K — FRIBOURG PAUL J2025-11-18: 1 insider sale, $12K — FRIBOURG PAUL J2025-10-30: 1 insider purchase, $2K — FRIBOURG PAUL J2025-09-29: 1 insider sale, $426 — FRIBOURG PAUL J2025-08-27: 1 insider purchase, $5K — FRIBOURG PAUL J2025-08: 3 open-market purchases, $2.0M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $4262025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $2K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $12K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $197K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $2K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $11K2026-03: 5 open-market purchases, $11.9M2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $20.3M2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $1.3M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Teles de Mendonca Ana Paula — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Birenkrant Marc — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer DeVeau Michael — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fyrwald J Erik — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fyrwald J Erik — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 10 days after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Purchase on 2026-02-09, filed 35 days after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 91 days after the tradeofficer Landsman Stephen N — Purchase on 2025-12-12, filed same daydirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 96 days after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Sale on 2025-11-18, filed 118 days after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Purchase on 2025-10-30, filed 137 days after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Sale on 2025-09-29, filed 168 days after the tradedirector FRIBOURG PAUL J — Purchase on 2025-08-27, filed 201 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Teles de Mendonca Ana PaulaofficerSale5,718 @ $83.19$476K−100.0% of holding+5.6%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07Birenkrant MarcofficerSale1,000 @ $85.00$85K−22.5% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open3,446Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-06DeVeau MichaelofficerSale8,825 @ $85.55$755K−62.9% of holding+1.9%not yet — horizon still open5,199Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorPurchase260,000 @ $74.28$19.3M+10.7% of holding+11.3%not yet — horizon still open2,682,730Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorPurchase13,500 @ $74.49$1.0M+45.5% of holding+11.3%not yet — horizon still open43,150Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-13Fyrwald J ErikdirectorPurchase13,360 @ $69.85$933K+17.1% of holding−0.2%+5.7%91,630Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-12FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorPurchase142,000 @ $70.13$10.0M+6.2% of holding−0.3%+5.4%2,422,730Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorPurchase14,200 @ $70.07$995K+91.9% of holding−0.3%+5.4%29,650Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12Fyrwald J ErikdirectorPurchase900 @ $68.87$62K+1.2% of holding−0.3%+5.4%78,270Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-06FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorPurchase3 @ $73.93$222+37.5% of holding−2.9%+3.2%11Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade
2026-02-09FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorPurchase146 @ $74.63$11K+55.5% of holding−6.1%+2.7%409Form 4 · filed 35 days after the trade
2025-12-15FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorSale3 @ $63.35$190−27.3% of holding+9.1%+10.5%8Form 4 · filed 91 days after the trade
2025-12-12Landsman Stephen NofficerPurchase3,100 @ $63.48$197K+25.8% of holding+10.1%+13.9%15,100Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-10FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorSale25 @ $65.27$2K−69.4% of holding+4.7%+12.7%11Form 4 · filed 96 days after the trade
2025-11-18FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorSale187 @ $65.42$12K−41.6% of holding−3.4%+2.2%263Form 4 · filed 118 days after the trade
2025-10-30FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorPurchase39 @ $63.64$2Kownership Δ n/a+9.7%+6.2%39Form 4 · filed 137 days after the trade
2025-09-29FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorSale7 @ $60.87$426−100.0% of holding+2.9%+21.9%0Form 4 · filed 168 days after the trade
2025-08-27FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorPurchase71 @ $66.91$5K+18.7% of holding−11.7%+18.0%450Form 4 · filed 201 days after the trade
2025-08-07FRIBOURG PAUL JdirectorPurchase15,450 @ $64.80$1.0Mownership Δ n/a+0.4%+8.1%15,450Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Fyrwald J ErikdirectorPurchase15,300 @ $64.95$994K+24.6% of holding+0.4%+8.1%77,370Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-22O'Byrne KevindirectorPurchase4,500 @ $76.05$342K+140.8% of holding−5.2%−26.3%7,696Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Landsman Stephen NofficerPurchase10,000 @ $77.22$772Kownership Δ n/a−3.6%−27.3%10,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-19Yildiz BerilofficerSale2,400 @ $77.33$186K−41.9% of holding−3.6%−27.3%3,321Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-19Landsman Stephen NofficerPurchase2,000 @ $77.58$155K+20.0% of holding−3.6%−27.3%12,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-19Palau Hernandez MargaritadirectorPurchase850 @ $77.42$66K+55.1% of holding−3.6%−27.3%2,393Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15Khan MehmooddirectorPurchase3,700 @ $75.33$279K+612.6% of holding−1.3%−24.8%4,304Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-15Khan MehmooddirectorPurchase300 @ $75.32$23K+7.0% of holding−1.3%−24.8%4,604Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09Fyrwald J ErikdirectorPurchase24,300 @ $73.97$1.8M+64.3% of holding+1.2%−34.1%62,070Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-08Fyrwald J ErikdirectorPurchase700 @ $74.00$52K+1.9% of holding−0.6%−33.4%37,770Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05O'Byrne KevindirectorPurchase6,500 @ $80.44$523Kownership Δ n/a+2.2%−30.5%6,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04Fyrwald J ErikdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $80.24$2.0M+581.4% of holding+0.9%−29.0%29,300Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2023-10-25Costa Mark JdirectorSale15 @ $66.05$991−3.1% of holding+4.0%+7.3%463Form 4 · filed 882 days after the trade
2023-08-04Costa Mark JdirectorPurchase15 @ $80.95$1K+3.2% of holding−12.7%−9.3%478Form 4 · filed 964 days after the trade
2023-05-30Costa Mark JdirectorSale15 @ $77.49$1K−3.1% of holding−4.1%−10.1%463Form 4 · filed 1030 days after the trade
2023-03-24Costa Mark JdirectorPurchase10 @ $84.27$843ownership Δ n/a+10.7%−27.3%10Form 4 · filed 1097 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

253 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-04Borg DeborahdirectorOption exercise1,76819,003Form 4
2026-05-04Finzel RalfofficerOption exercise1,32613,180Form 4
2026-05-04DeVeau MichaelofficerOption exercise88419,468Form 4
2026-05-04Finzel RalfofficerWithheld for tax73417,621Form 4
2026-05-04Borg DeborahdirectorWithheld for tax71337,925Form 4
2026-05-04Teles de Mendonca Ana PaulaofficerOption exercise70819,156Form 4
2026-05-04DeVeau MichaelofficerWithheld for tax45214,024Form 4
2026-05-04Birenkrant MarcofficerOption exercise3891,221Form 4
2026-05-04Teles de Mendonca Ana PaulaofficerWithheld for tax3625,718Form 4
2026-05-04Birenkrant MarcofficerWithheld for tax1414,446Form 4
2026-05-04Finzel RalfofficerOption exercise1,32618,355Form 4
2026-05-04Birenkrant MarcofficerOption exercise3894,587Form 4
2026-05-04Borg DeborahdirectorOption exercise1,76838,638Form 4
2026-05-04DeVeau MichaelofficerOption exercise88414,476Form 4
2026-05-04Teles de Mendonca Ana PaulaofficerOption exercise7086,080Form 4
2026-05-01Fyrwald J ErikdirectorOption exercise15,875119,558Form 4
2026-05-01Fyrwald J ErikdirectorWithheld for tax7,763109,676Form 4
2026-05-01O'Byrne KevindirectorOption exercise4,2820Form 4
2026-05-01Khan MehmooddirectorOption exercise2,5690Form 4
2026-05-01Borg DeborahdirectorOption exercise2,38120,771Form 4
2026-05-01Drosos VirginiadirectorOption exercise2,3350Form 4
2026-05-01Finzel RalfofficerOption exercise1,98414,506Form 4
2026-05-01Arora YuvrajofficerWithheld for tax1,82817,283Form 4
2026-05-01Mulligan RicharddirectorOption exercise1,7120Form 4
2026-05-01ICAHN BRETTdirectorOption exercise1,7120Form 4
2026-05-01Teles de Mendonca Ana PaulaofficerOption exercise1,58719,864Form 4
2026-05-01DeVeau MichaelofficerOption exercise1,38920,352Form 4
2026-05-01O'Byrne KevindirectorWithheld for tax1,15717,571Form 4
2026-05-01Finzel RalfofficerWithheld for tax1,09817,029Form 4
2026-05-01Borg DeborahdirectorWithheld for tax96036,870Form 4
2026-05-01DeVeau MichaelofficerWithheld for tax71013,592Form 4
2026-05-01Teles de Mendonca Ana PaulaofficerWithheld for tax6255,372Form 4
2026-05-01Birenkrant MarcofficerOption exercise3971,610Form 4
2026-05-01Birenkrant MarcofficerWithheld for tax1444,198Form 4
2026-05-01Arora YuvrajofficerOption exercise3,57225,962Form 4
2026-05-01DeVeau MichaelofficerOption exercise1,38914,302Form 4
2026-05-01Drosos VirginiadirectorOption exercise2,3352,434Form 4
2026-05-01Teles de Mendonca Ana PaulaofficerOption exercise1,5875,997Form 4
2026-05-01Finzel RalfofficerOption exercise1,98418,127Form 4
2026-05-01Fyrwald J ErikdirectorOption exercise15,875117,439Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-02-112026-01-13$100–250K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.