Issued 2026-09-16 at $325.02 · now $325.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IESC has typically landed between $261.63 and $424.06 — a range of −19.5% to +30.5% from the issuance price $325.02.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($325.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IESC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $325.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $325.02 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $343.06 (+5.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $312.43–$373.69
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $261.63–$424.06
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-08-04 | −60.2% | −60.5% | +4.4% |
| 2026-08-05 | −59.8% | −61.7% | +1.3% |
| 2026-07-31 | −59.3% | −59.3% | +6.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-04 | +115.3% | +0.0% | +115.3% |
| 2012-02-27 | +88.8% | +0.0% | +88.8% |
| 2008-12-02 | +88.4% | +0.0% | +88.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+3.5%
n=20
Feb
55%
+4.0%
n=20
Mar
55%
+5.0%
n=20
Apr
60%
+3.6%
n=20
May
70%
+3.0%
n=20
Jun
30%
−2.5%
n=20
Jul
75%
+6.0%
n=20
Aug
50%
−1.5%
n=20
Sep
65%
+4.0%
n=20
Oct
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Nov
55%
+0.9%
n=20
Dec
60%
+4.9%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 19,996 @ $750.24 | $15.0M | −0.2% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,433,283 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $760.47 | $7.6M | −0.1% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,415,788 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 7,491 @ $758.74 | $5.7M | −0.1% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,425,788 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 6,720 @ $764.54 | $5.1M | −0.1% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,406,559 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 2,509 @ $761.73 | $1.9M | −0.0% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,413,279 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $763.35 | $1.1M | −2.4% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,874 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $762.01 | $914K | −1.9% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,374 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $761.31 | $914K | −1.9% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,574 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $760.41 | $836K | −1.7% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,774 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 4 @ $752.18 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,433,279 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 8,251 @ $705.38 | $5.8M | −0.1% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,467,088 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $708.10 | $5.0M | −0.1% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,456,088 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $702.65 | $4.2M | −0.1% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,477,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $706.60 | $2.8M | −0.0% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,463,088 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 2,809 @ $710.14 | $2.0M | −0.0% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,453,279 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 2,250 @ $703.51 | $1.6M | −0.0% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,475,339 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 2,006 @ $702.24 | $1.4M | −0.0% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,483,638 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 49 @ $703.89 | $34K | −0.0% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,483,589 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 15,846 @ $693.89 | $11.0M | −0.2% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,498,392 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 8,767 @ $692.90 | $6.1M | −0.1% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,514,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 8,189 @ $697.47 | $5.7M | −0.1% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,486,049 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 4,154 @ $694.82 | $2.9M | −0.0% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,494,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $683.09 | $1.4M | −0.0% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,523,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 405 @ $698.03 | $283K | −0.0% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,485,644 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $692.71 | $10.4M | −0.1% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,525,005 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $674.98 | $3.4M | −0.0% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,540,005 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 4,308 @ $660.23 | $2.8M | −5.6% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,087 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 3,118 @ $665.41 | $2.1M | −4.4% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,843 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | McLauchlin Tracy | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $662.61 | $2.0M | −4.6% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,525 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $672.45 | $1.3M | −0.0% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,545,057 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 1,122 @ $662.87 | $744K | −1.6% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,029 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 936 @ $661.76 | $619K | −1.3% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,151 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 626 @ $666.54 | $417K | −0.9% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,217 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 500 @ $667.74 | $334K | −0.7% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,717 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 400 @ $671.14 | $268K | −0.6% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,017 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 200 @ $672.00 | $134K | −0.3% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,817 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 200 @ $670.35 | $134K | −0.3% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,417 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 100 @ $668.83 | $67K | −0.1% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,617 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 68 @ $663.56 | $45K | −0.1% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,961 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 52 @ $673.47 | $35K | −0.0% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,545,005 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-07 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 1 @ $677.47 | $677 | −0.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,547,057 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 7,206 @ $682.71 | $4.9M | −0.1% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,552,064 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $672.52 | $4.7M | −0.1% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,574,161 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $677.16 | $3.4M | −0.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,562,161 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $684.33 | $2.7M | −0.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,548,064 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $671.22 | $2.7M | −0.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,581,161 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 3,610 @ $673.74 | $2.4M | −0.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,570,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $675.62 | $2.0M | −0.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,567,161 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 2,788 @ $681.30 | $1.9M | −0.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,559,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $670.03 | $1.3M | −0.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,585,161 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 1,006 @ $686.41 | $691K | −0.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,547,058 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 495 @ $683.30 | $338K | −0.6% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 390 @ $674.85 | $263K | −0.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,570,161 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 157 @ $683.17 | $107K | −0.2% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,890 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 141 @ $675.00 | $95K | −0.2% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Sale | 129 @ $680.00 | $88K | −0.2% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Sale | 103 @ $678.29 | $70K | −0.0% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,562,058 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Simmes Matthew J | officer | Sale | 1,587 @ $656.48 | $1.0M | −1.7% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,258 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Simmes Matthew J | officer | Sale | 1,322 @ $657.49 | $869K | −1.4% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,936 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Simmes Matthew J | officer | Sale | 1,195 @ $658.52 | $787K | −1.3% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,741 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Gendell David B. | director | Award / grant | 34 | 70,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Janzen Kelly | director | Award / grant | 34 | 263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Koshkin Joe D | director | Award / grant | 39 | 44,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Baldock Jennifer A | director | Award / grant | 36 | 5,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Award / grant | 37 | 60,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fouts John Louis | director | Award / grant | 69 | 8,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gendell David B. | director | Award / grant | 53 | 70,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Award / grant | 57 | 78,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Fouts John Louis | director | Award / grant | 107 | 8,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Janzen Kelly | director | Award / grant | 53 | 229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Baldock Jennifer A | director | Award / grant | 56 | 5,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Koshkin Joe D | director | Award / grant | 60 | 44,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Fouts John Louis | director | Award / grant | 131 | 8,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Gendell David B. | director | Award / grant | 65 | 70,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Baldock Jennifer A | director | Award / grant | 69 | 5,523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Janzen Kelly | director | Award / grant | 65 | 176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Award / grant | 69 | 85,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Koshkin Joe D | director | Award / grant | 73 | 44,796 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Gift | 1,500 | 85,748 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Newman Mary K | officer | Award / grant | 389 | 23,843 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | McLauchlin Tracy | officer | Award / grant | 428 | 70,525 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Allen Matthew Michael | officer | Award / grant | 173 | 1,798 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Simmes Matthew J | officer | Award / grant | 799 | 108,575 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Award / grant | 799 | 10,777,414 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Award / grant | 20,077 | 10,789,794 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Simmes Matthew J | officer | Award / grant | 14,172 | 115,676 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | GENDELL JEFFREY L ET AL | director | Withheld for tax | 13,179 | 10,776,615 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | McLauchlin Tracy | officer | Award / grant | 8,857 | 75,034 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Simmes Matthew J | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,900 | 107,776 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Newman Mary K | officer | Award / grant | 6,142 | 26,877 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | McLauchlin Tracy | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,937 | 70,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Newman Mary K | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,423 | 23,454 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Allen Matthew Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 179 | 559 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Gendell David B. | director | Award / grant | 64 | 88,536 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Cleveland Todd M | director | Award / grant | 68 | 87,248 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Janzen Kelly | director | Award / grant | 64 | 111 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Baldock Jennifer A | director | Award / grant | 67 | 5,454 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Koshkin Joe D | director | Award / grant | 72 | 49,723 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Fouts John Louis | director | Award / grant | 128 | 8,181 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Baldock Jennifer A | director | Award / grant | 90 | 5,387 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.