IEIvanhoe Electric Inc.Basic Materials · Copperas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.94 · now $8.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IE has typically landed between $6.64 and $11.83 — a range of −25.7% to +32.3% from the issuance price $8.94.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,038 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-06-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where IE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$6.64worst · -25.7%$11.83best · +32.3%
  • now $8.94 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.09 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.85–$10.32
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.64–$11.83
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,038 windows spanning 2022-06-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-07-15−40.7%−42.7%+0.0%
2024-07-16−39.0%−42.0%+0.0%
2024-07-12−37.5%−40.6%+3.6%
3 best
2025-09-12+86.6%+0.0%+86.6%
2025-09-16+86.5%−1.0%+86.5%
2025-09-15+85.9%+0.0%+85.9%

1,038 overlapping windows · 2022-06-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−5.7%
n=4
Feb
75%
+1.9%
n=4
Mar
25%
−6.1%
n=4
Apr
75%
+4.5%
n=4
May
100%
+9.8%
n=4
Jun
50%
−4.6%
n=4
Jul
80%
+7.4%
n=5
Aug
40%
−2.8%
n=5
Sep
40%
+0.6%
n=5
Oct
75%
+12.7%
n=4
Nov
50%
+0.5%
n=4
Dec
50%
−1.2%
n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$20$82026-03-06: 6 insider sales, $803K — Neeser Jordan, Kuntz Glen Nickolas, Boyd Graham Richard Thomas, Melvin Joseph Taylor …2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — Joseph Cassandra Pulskamp2025-12-29: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Markin Quentin2025-09-25: 1 insider sale, $31.8M — Chow Tai Fook Enterprises Ltd2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Boyd Graham Richard Thomas2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $31.8M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $1.5M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $2.0M2026-03: 6 open-market sales, $803K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Neeser Jordan — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Kuntz Glen Nickolas — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Boyd Graham Richard Thomas — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Melvin Joseph Taylor — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Terhorst Stephani — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Joseph Cassandra Pulskamp — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Joseph Cassandra Pulskamp — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Markin Quentin — Sale on 2025-12-29, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Chow Tai Fook Enterprises Ltd — Sale on 2025-09-25, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Boyd Graham Richard Thomas — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-06Neeser JordanofficerSale17,123 @ $13.20$226K−16.9% of holding−8.4%−39.1%84,247Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06Kuntz Glen NickolasofficerSale14,863 @ $13.20$196K−31.2% of holding−8.4%−39.1%32,768Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06Boyd Graham Richard ThomasofficerSale11,147 @ $13.20$147K−5.7% of holding−8.4%−39.1%183,079Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06Melvin Joseph TaylordirectorSale6,808 @ $13.20$90K−1.1% of holding−8.4%−39.1%626,110Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06Terhorst StephaniofficerSale6,233 @ $13.20$82K−33.3% of holding−8.4%−39.1%12,466Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06Joseph Cassandra PulskampdirectorSale4,664 @ $13.20$62K−9.1% of holding−8.4%−39.1%46,706Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-25Joseph Cassandra PulskampdirectorSale123,074 @ $16.48$2.0M−70.6% of holding−27.5%−38.4%51,370Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-29Markin QuentinofficerSale90,000 @ $16.34$1.5M−11.0% of holding+23.1%−50.3%728,493Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-25Chow Tai Fook Enterprises LtdtenPercentOwnerSale3,418,295 @ $9.30$31.8M−26.1% of holding+35.5%−2.1%9,665,673Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-21Boyd Graham Richard ThomasofficerSale134,059 @ $8.92$1.2M−40.8% of holding+0.0%+65.4%194,226Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-07Melvin Joseph TaylordirectorPurchase50,000 @ $5.76$288K+7.3% of holding+1.6%+40.1%730,753Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-07Neeser JordanofficerPurchase2,500 @ $5.75$14K+5.3% of holding+1.6%+40.1%50,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-06Neeser JordanofficerPurchase7,500 @ $5.92$44K+18.8% of holding−7.3%+39.1%47,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06Boyd Graham Richard ThomasofficerPurchase5,000 @ $5.83$29K+76.8% of holding−7.3%+39.1%11,510Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05Neeser JordanofficerPurchase10,000 @ $5.87$59K+50.0% of holding−3.6%+36.8%30,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05Neeser JordanofficerPurchase10,000 @ $5.84$58K+33.3% of holding−3.6%+36.8%40,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-14FRIEDLAND ROBERT MdirectorPurchase816,667—+131.8% of holding+7.2%+42.8%1,436,303Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-14FRIEDLAND ROBERT MdirectorPurchase816,667—ownership Δ n/a+7.2%+42.8%816,667Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-14FRIEDLAND ROBERT MdirectorPurchase816,667—+131.8% of holding+7.2%+42.8%1,436,303Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-14FRIEDLAND ROBERT MdirectorPurchase816,667—ownership Δ n/a+7.2%+42.8%816,667Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-03-06Ball Russell DaviddirectorAward / grant9,90137,629Form 4
2026-03-06Vance Ronald JdirectorAward / grant9,90130,553Form 4
2026-03-06Patil PriyadirectorAward / grant9,90139,601Form 4
2026-03-06Kuntz Glen NickolasofficerAward / grant22,84855,616Form 4
2026-03-06Melvin Joseph TaylordirectorAward / grant45,697671,807Form 4
2026-03-06Neeser JordanofficerAward / grant22,848107,095Form 4
2026-03-06FRIEDLAND ROBERT MdirectorAward / grant79,2089,549,770Form 4
2026-03-06Markin QuentinofficerAward / grant30,465758,958Form 4
2026-03-06Joseph Cassandra PulskampdirectorAward / grant22,84869,554Form 4
2026-03-06Katase HirofumidirectorAward / grant9,90181,684Form 4
2026-03-06Boyd Graham Richard ThomasofficerAward / grant15,512198,591Form 4
2026-03-06Bianchi SofiadirectorAward / grant9,90136,068Form 4
2026-03-06Loftus-Hills PatrickdirectorAward / grant9,90131,968Form 4
2026-03-06de Margerie VictoiredirectorAward / grant9,90137,629Form 4
2026-03-06Terhorst StephaniofficerAward / grant12,33824,804Form 4
2026-02-25Joseph Cassandra PulskampdirectorOption exercise123,074174,444Form 4
2026-02-25Joseph Cassandra PulskampdirectorOption exercise123,074376,926Form 4
2026-02-13FRIEDLAND ROBERT MdirectorExercise816,6672,252,970Form 4
2026-02-13FRIEDLAND ROBERT MdirectorExercise816,6670Form 4
2026-02-13FRIEDLAND ROBERT MdirectorExercise816,6670Form 4
2025-11-21Melvin Joseph TaylordirectorWithheld for tax97,835632,918Form 4
2025-08-21Boyd Graham Richard ThomasofficerOption exercise283,333328,285Form 4
2025-08-21Boyd Graham Richard ThomasofficerOption exercise283,3330Form 4
2025-03-06Bianchi SofiadirectorAward / grant23,11626,167Form 4
2025-03-06Gibson Mark Andrew StuartofficerAward / grant33,442313,714Form 4
2025-03-06Melvin Joseph TaylordirectorAward / grant68,493680,753Form 4
2025-03-06Neeser JordanofficerAward / grant51,370101,370Form 4
2025-03-06Loftus-Hills PatrickdirectorAward / grant17,12322,067Form 4
2025-03-06Markin QuentinofficerAward / grant68,493818,493Form 4
2025-03-06FRIEDLAND ROBERT MdirectorAward / grant133,5629,470,562Form 4
2025-03-06Patil PriyadirectorAward / grant17,12329,700Form 4
2025-03-06Kuntz Glen NickolasofficerAward / grant44,58947,631Form 4
2025-03-06Boyd Graham Richard ThomasofficerAward / grant33,44244,952Form 4
2025-03-06Joseph Cassandra PulskampdirectorAward / grant51,37051,370Form 4
2025-03-06Vance Ronald JdirectorAward / grant17,12320,652Form 4
2025-03-06Terhorst StephaniofficerAward / grant18,69918,699Form 4
2025-03-06de Margerie VictoiredirectorAward / grant17,12327,728Form 4
2025-03-06Katase HirofumidirectorAward / grant17,12371,783Form 4
2025-03-06Ball Russell DaviddirectorAward / grant17,12327,728Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.