Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.73 · now $37.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IDYA has typically landed between $30.44 and $47.18 — a range of −19.3% to +25.1% from the issuance price $37.73.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,818 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-05-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IDYA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $37.73 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $37.79 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.13–$41.46
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $30.44–$47.18
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-14 | −55.4% | −55.4% | +6.6% |
| 2020-02-18 | −53.2% | −54.8% | +7.9% |
| 2020-02-13 | −52.6% | −52.6% | +3.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-18 | +152.7% | −4.9% | +152.7% |
| 2020-05-22 | +103.6% | +0.0% | +165.7% |
| 2020-05-26 | +101.5% | +0.0% | +158.3% |
1,818 overlapping windows · 2019-05-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Ruiz Briseno Andres | officer | Sale | 9,550 @ $40.01 | $382K | −26.5% of holding | −14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,466 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Stein Jeffrey | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $32.96 | $1.6M | +1168.0% of holding | +5.8% | +9.0% | 54,281 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
33 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Ruiz Briseno Andres | officer | Option exercise | 9,550 | 36,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Ruiz Briseno Andres | officer | Option exercise | 9,550 | 19,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | ROSEN TERRY J | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Stein Jeffrey | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | YARNO WENDY L | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Morrison Scott W | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Hampton Malcolm Garret | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | MACKEY CATHERINE J | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Snyder Douglas B. | officer | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Beaupre Darrin | officer | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Bleharski Joshua | director | Award / grant | 170,000 | 170,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Ruiz Briseno Andres | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Hata Yujiro S | director | Award / grant | 600,000 | 600,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | WHITE MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Award / grant | 190,000 | 190,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | DORMAN STUART | officer | Award / grant | 155,000 | 155,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-28 | Ruiz Briseno Andres | officer | Award / grant | 1,253 | 26,466 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-28 | Snyder Douglas B. | officer | Award / grant | 1,041 | 2,080 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Stein Jeffrey | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | YARNO WENDY L | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Morrison Scott W | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Hampton Malcolm Garret | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | ROSEN TERRY J | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | MACKEY CATHERINE J | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-30 | Snyder Douglas B. | officer | Award / grant | 1,039 | 1,039 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Hata Yujiro S | director | Award / grant | 600,000 | 600,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Snyder Douglas B. | officer | Award / grant | 33,000 | 33,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | WHITE MICHAEL ANTHONY | officer | Award / grant | 185,000 | 185,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Beaupre Darrin | officer | Award / grant | 185,000 | 185,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Ruiz Briseno Andres | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | DORMAN STUART | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Hata Yujiro S | director | Option exercise | 12,808 | 690,695 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Hata Yujiro S | director | Option exercise | 12,808 | 182,192 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-29 | Ruiz Briseno Andres | officer | Award / grant | 682 | 25,213 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.