Issued 2026-09-16 at $328.72 · now $328.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IDCC has typically landed between $287.90 and $398.65 — a range of −12.4% to +21.3% from the issuance price $328.72.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($328.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IDCC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $328.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $328.72 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $335.35 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $311.6–$359.09
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $287.9–$398.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −45.2% | −46.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −44.4% | −46.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −42.1% | −42.1% | +9.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2011-06-21 | +99.5% | +0.0% | +99.5% |
| 2011-06-22 | +95.0% | +0.0% | +98.5% |
| 2011-06-24 | +93.6% | +0.0% | +94.3% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+2.5%
n=20
Feb
55%
+0.3%
n=20
Mar
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Apr
50%
+0.6%
n=20
May
55%
+3.4%
n=20
Jun
45%
+1.8%
n=20
Jul
55%
+4.0%
n=20
Aug
55%
−1.2%
n=20
Sep
50%
−0.5%
n=20
Oct
55%
+1.8%
n=20
Nov
75%
+5.7%
n=20
Dec
55%
+3.1%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $338.00 | $507K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 65,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Gillman Joan H | director | Sale | 300 @ $331.06 | $99K | −1.3% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,736 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $324.88 | $487K | −2.2% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Sale | 750 @ $290.00 | $218K | −1.1% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,976 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Sale | 750 @ $282.00 | $212K | −1.1% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,726 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Markley John D. Jr. | director | Sale | 400 @ $300.00 | $120K | −3.3% of holding | −13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,735 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | ABERLE DEREK K | director | Sale | 522 @ $276.64 | $144K | −6.4% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,620 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Armaly Samir | director | Sale | 470 @ $276.64 | $130K | −9.3% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,608 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | KRITZMACHER JOHN A | director | Sale | 365 @ $276.64 | $101K | −2.2% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,359 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | RANKIN JEAN F | director | Sale | 365 @ $276.64 | $101K | −1.2% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,938 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $290.00 | $435K | −2.1% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,476 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Sale | 750 @ $258.38 | $194K | −1.0% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,976 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Mattis Julia C | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $257.65 | $412K | −12.2% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,538 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Sale | 750 @ $278.00 | $209K | −1.0% of holding | −13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,726 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $313.30 | $470K | −2.0% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,449 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Schmidt Joshua D. | officer | Sale | 1,060 @ $349.08 | $370K | −3.7% of holding | +2.1% | −19.0% | 27,657 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Schmidt Joshua D. | officer | Sale | 998 @ $345.10 | $344K | −3.2% of holding | +2.1% | −19.0% | 30,267 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Schmidt Joshua D. | officer | Sale | 842 @ $348.38 | $293K | −2.8% of holding | +2.1% | −19.0% | 28,717 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Schmidt Joshua D. | officer | Sale | 798 @ $350.18 | $279K | −2.9% of holding | +2.1% | −19.0% | 26,859 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Schmidt Joshua D. | officer | Sale | 708 @ $346.15 | $245K | −2.3% of holding | +2.1% | −19.0% | 29,559 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Schmidt Joshua D. | officer | Sale | 624 @ $344.35 | $215K | −2.0% of holding | +2.1% | −19.0% | 31,265 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Schmidt Joshua D. | officer | Sale | 538 @ $351.16 | $189K | −2.0% of holding | +2.1% | −19.0% | 26,321 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Schmidt Joshua D. | officer | Sale | 312 @ $355.17 | $111K | −1.2% of holding | +2.1% | −19.0% | 25,889 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Schmidt Joshua D. | officer | Sale | 120 @ $353.00 | $42K | −0.5% of holding | +2.1% | −19.0% | 26,201 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $368.10 | $368K | −1.6% of holding | −10.6% | −21.3% | 60,196 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Schmidt Joshua D. | officer | Sale | 467 @ $365.86 | $171K | −1.7% of holding | −12.0% | −20.9% | 27,021 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $352.24 | $704K | −2.8% of holding | +3.0% | −18.0% | 70,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Gillman Joan H | director | Sale | 325 @ $352.24 | $114K | −1.5% of holding | +3.0% | −18.0% | 22,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 760 @ $354.71 | $270K | −1.0% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 77,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Markley John D. Jr. | director | Sale | 700 @ $374.95 | $262K | −5.9% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 11,223 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 652 @ $356.15 | $232K | −0.8% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 76,377 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 590 @ $374.94 | $221K | −0.8% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 72,404 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 620 @ $353.67 | $219K | −0.8% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 77,789 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 590 @ $361.90 | $214K | −0.8% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 73,809 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 458 @ $360.96 | $165K | −0.6% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 74,399 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 410 @ $359.29 | $147K | −0.5% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 75,217 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 400 @ $357.03 | $143K | −0.5% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 75,977 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 360 @ $359.98 | $130K | −0.5% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 74,857 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 350 @ $357.92 | $125K | −0.5% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 75,627 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 240 @ $366.64 | $88K | −0.3% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 73,409 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 200 @ $369.70 | $74K | −0.3% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 73,194 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 160 @ $373.63 | $60K | −0.2% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 72,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 160 @ $365.00 | $58K | −0.2% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 73,649 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 40 @ $371.99 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 73,154 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 15 @ $368.14 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | +7.0% | −11.6% | 73,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $326.26 | $326K | −1.6% of holding | +5.3% | −14.4% | 61,196 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Sale | 3,332 @ $328.16 | $1.1M | −2.1% of holding | +13.4% | −26.8% | 153,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Sale | 960 @ $326.95 | $314K | −0.6% of holding | +13.4% | −26.8% | 157,151 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Sale | 702 @ $329.04 | $231K | −0.5% of holding | +13.4% | −26.8% | 153,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Sale | 532 @ $325.58 | $173K | −0.3% of holding | +13.4% | −26.8% | 158,111 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Sale | 392 @ $324.58 | $127K | −0.2% of holding | +13.4% | −26.8% | 158,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Sale | 40 @ $331.16 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | +13.4% | −26.8% | 153,077 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Sale | 2,975 @ $326.71 | $972K | −1.8% of holding | +7.1% | −31.0% | 159,035 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-20 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Sale | 2,975 @ $303.77 | $904K | −1.8% of holding | +5.9% | −31.0% | 162,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Sale | 2,975 @ $312.72 | $930K | −1.8% of holding | +21.2% | −24.5% | 164,985 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-13 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Sale | 2,975 @ $310.82 | $925K | −1.7% of holding | +15.7% | −23.6% | 167,960 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Sale | 2,975 @ $310.47 | $924K | −1.7% of holding | +20.1% | −23.8% | 170,935 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Sale | 2,975 @ $334.08 | $994K | −1.7% of holding | +14.0% | −22.5% | 173,910 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 1,139 @ $325.15 | $370K | −1.4% of holding | +14.0% | −22.5% | 80,730 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Sale | 728 @ $327.50 | $238K | −0.9% of holding | +14.0% | −22.5% | 79,710 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
162 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Schmidt Joshua D. | officer | Award / grant | 27 | 30,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Award / grant | 39 | 68,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | RANKIN JEAN F | director | Award / grant | 2 | 28,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | ABERLE DEREK K | director | Award / grant | 2 | 7,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Armaly Samir | director | Award / grant | 2 | 4,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Award / grant | 36 | 82,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Award / grant | 78 | 178,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Gillman Joan H | director | Award / grant | 57 | 23,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | HUTCHESON STEWART D | director | Award / grant | 54 | 22,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | KRITZMACHER JOHN A | director | Award / grant | 2 | 16,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Markley John D. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 9 | 11,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mattis Julia C | officer | Award / grant | 24 | 11,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | KRITZMACHER JOHN A | director | Disposition | 1 | 16,724 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | RANKIN JEAN F | director | Disposition | 1 | 29,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | ABERLE DEREK K | director | Disposition | 1 | 8,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Armaly Samir | director | Disposition | 1 | 5,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Markley John D. Jr. | director | Disposition | 1 | 12,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Gillman Joan H | director | Award / grant | 906 | 22,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | HUTCHESON STEWART D | director | Award / grant | 906 | 22,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | ABERLE DEREK K | director | Award / grant | 906 | 8,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Markley John D. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 906 | 12,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | RANKIN JEAN F | director | Award / grant | 906 | 29,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Armaly Samir | director | Award / grant | 906 | 5,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | KRITZMACHER JOHN A | director | Award / grant | 906 | 16,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Award / grant | 54 | 178,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | HUTCHESON STEWART D | director | Award / grant | 35 | 21,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gillman Joan H | director | Award / grant | 37 | 22,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | RANKIN JEAN F | director | Award / grant | 2 | 28,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Award / grant | 27 | 72,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Award / grant | 25 | 82,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Schmidt Joshua D. | officer | Award / grant | 18 | 30,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Mattis Julia C | officer | Award / grant | 16 | 13,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Markley John D. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 6 | 11,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | KRITZMACHER JOHN A | director | Award / grant | 2 | 15,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Armaly Samir | director | Award / grant | 2 | 4,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | ABERLE DEREK K | director | Award / grant | 2 | 7,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mattis Julia C | officer | Award / grant | 4,140 | 13,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Chen Lawrence Liren | director | Award / grant | 10,486 | 178,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Pankaj Rajesh | officer | Award / grant | 5,795 | 73,949 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | BREZSKI RICHARD | officer | Award / grant | 5,299 | 82,848 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.