ICLR · TickerCove

ICLRICON Public Limited CompanyHealthcare · Medical - Diagnostics & Researchas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $173.94 · now $173.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ICLR has typically landed between $146.70 and $205.88 — a range of −15.7% to +18.4% from the issuance price $173.94.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($173.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$173.94 · 76% of range

$80.08 low$202.92 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.1%

typical move · IQR 13.7%

−15.7%worst (p90)+18.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ICLR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $173.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $173.94 (+0.0%)
typical $174.06 (+0.1%)
middle 50% $162.13–$185.98
90% range $146.7–$205.88

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-01-13	−56.3%	−56.3%	+2.6%
2026-01-15	−51.5%	−56.1%	+3.0%
2026-01-14	−49.7%	−56.7%	+1.7%
3 best
2026-05-27	+43.4%	+0.0%	+43.4%
2009-05-07	+42.3%	+0.0%	+42.3%
2026-05-26	+41.4%	+0.0%	+41.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+2.4%

n=20

Feb

55%

+0.5%

n=20

Mar

65%

+0.1%

n=20

Apr

45%

+0.5%

n=20

May

70%

+3.8%

n=20

Jun

70%

+5.1%

n=20

Jul

85%

+6.3%

n=20

Aug

40%

−1.4%

n=20

Sep

55%

−0.1%

n=20

Oct

40%

−3.1%

n=20

Nov

65%

+2.6%

n=20

Dec

55%

+0.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-11	Murray Ciaran	director	Sale	1,880 @ $164.47	$309K	−8.3% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	20,664	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Clerkin Nigel Bernard John	officer	Sale	1,591 @ $164.47	$262K	−20.8% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	6,061	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	O'Neill Julie	director	Sale	642 @ $164.47	$106K	−15.2% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	3,588	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	CLIMAX JOHN DR	director	Sale	591 @ $164.47	$97K	−21.5% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	2,154	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Grais Linda	director	Sale	590 @ $164.47	$97K	−8.7% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	6,229	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Whitaker Anne Clem	director	Sale	590 @ $164.47	$97K	−38.1% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	958	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Murphy Ronan Martin	director	Sale	590 @ $164.47	$97K	−13.1% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	3,914	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	McCague Eugene Pacelli	director	Sale	590 @ $164.47	$97K	−13.2% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	3,878	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Murray Ciaran	director	Sale	305 @ $163.77	$50K	−1.3% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	22,544	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Murray Ciaran	director	Sale	280 @ $162.72	$46K	−1.2% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	22,849	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Clerkin Nigel Bernard John	officer	Sale	259 @ $163.77	$42K	−3.3% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	7,652	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Clerkin Nigel Bernard John	officer	Sale	237 @ $162.72	$39K	−2.9% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	7,911	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Murray Ciaran	director	Sale	212 @ $165.51	$35K	−1.0% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	20,452	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Clerkin Nigel Bernard John	officer	Sale	180 @ $165.51	$30K	−3.0% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	5,881	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	O'Neill Julie	director	Sale	105 @ $163.77	$17K	−2.4% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	4,230	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Grais Linda	director	Sale	97 @ $163.77	$16K	−1.4% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	6,819	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Murphy Ronan Martin	director	Sale	96 @ $163.77	$16K	−2.1% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	4,504	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Whitaker Anne Clem	director	Sale	96 @ $163.77	$16K	−5.8% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,548	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	McCague Eugene Pacelli	director	Sale	96 @ $163.77	$16K	−2.1% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	4,468	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	CLIMAX JOHN DR	director	Sale	95 @ $163.77	$16K	−3.3% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	2,745	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	O'Neill Julie	director	Sale	95 @ $162.72	$15K	−2.1% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	4,335	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Murphy Ronan Martin	director	Sale	88 @ $162.72	$14K	−1.9% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	4,600	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	CLIMAX JOHN DR	director	Sale	88 @ $162.72	$14K	−3.0% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	2,840	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	McCague Eugene Pacelli	director	Sale	88 @ $162.72	$14K	−1.9% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	4,564	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Whitaker Anne Clem	director	Sale	88 @ $162.72	$14K	−5.1% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,644	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Grais Linda	director	Sale	87 @ $162.72	$14K	−1.2% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	6,916	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	O'Neill Julie	director	Sale	73 @ $165.51	$12K	−2.0% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	3,515	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	McCague Eugene Pacelli	director	Sale	67 @ $165.51	$11K	−1.7% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	3,811	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	CLIMAX JOHN DR	director	Sale	67 @ $165.51	$11K	−3.1% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	2,087	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Grais Linda	director	Sale	67 @ $165.51	$11K	−1.1% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	6,162	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Murphy Ronan Martin	director	Sale	67 @ $165.51	$11K	−1.7% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	3,847	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Whitaker Anne Clem	director	Sale	67 @ $165.51	$11K	−7.0% of holding	+1.7%	not yet — horizon still open	891	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10	Balfe Barry Edward	director	Sale	304 @ $163.80	$50K	−5.9% of holding	−2.6%	not yet — horizon still open	4,882	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10	Balfe Barry Edward	director	Sale	78 @ $165.14	$13K	−1.6% of holding	−2.6%	not yet — horizon still open	4,804	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-10	Grais Linda	director	Award / grant	1,324	1,324	Form 4
2026-08-10	Whitaker Anne Clem	director	Option exercise	1,732	0	Form 4
2026-08-10	Grais Linda	director	Option exercise	1,732	0	Form 4
2026-08-10	Lyons Emer	officer	Award / grant	5,886	5,886	Form 4
2026-08-10	Clerkin Nigel Bernard John	officer	Award / grant	14,164	14,164	Form 4
2026-08-10	Clerkin Nigel Bernard John	officer	Option exercise	3,375	6,752	Form 4
2026-08-10	Clerkin Nigel Bernard John	officer	Option exercise	918	1,837	Form 4
2026-08-10	McCague Eugene Pacelli	director	Option exercise	1,732	0	Form 4
2026-08-10	McCague Eugene Pacelli	director	Award / grant	1,324	1,324	Form 4
2026-08-10	CLIMAX JOHN DR	director	Award / grant	1,324	1,324	Form 4
2026-08-10	Murphy Ronan Martin	director	Option exercise	1,732	0	Form 4
2026-08-10	Murphy Ronan Martin	director	Award / grant	1,324	1,324	Form 4
2026-08-10	CLIMAX JOHN DR	director	Option exercise	1,732	0	Form 4
2026-08-10	Murray Ciaran	director	Option exercise	2,677	0	Form 4
2026-08-10	Murray Ciaran	director	Award / grant	2,047	2,047	Form 4
2026-08-10	Elliott Jeffrey Thomas	director	Award / grant	1,324	1,324	Form 4
2026-08-10	Balfe Barry Edward	director	Award / grant	32,635	32,635	Form 4
2026-08-10	Balfe Barry Edward	director	Award / grant	22,258	22,258	Form 4
2026-08-10	O'Neill Julie	director	Option exercise	1,732	0	Form 4
2026-08-10	O'Neill Julie	director	Award / grant	1,324	1,324	Form 4
2026-08-10	Whitaker Anne Clem	director	Award / grant	1,324	1,324	Form 4
2026-08-10	Egan Kevin Francis	director	Award / grant	1,324	1,324	Form 4
2026-08-10	Clerkin Nigel Bernard John	officer	Award / grant	4,793	4,793	Form 4
2026-08-10	Murphy Ronan Martin	director	Option exercise	1,732	4,688	Form 4
2026-08-10	CLIMAX JOHN DR	director	Option exercise	1,732	2,928	Form 4
2026-08-10	O'Neill Julie	director	Option exercise	1,732	4,430	Form 4
2026-08-10	Whitaker Anne Clem	director	Option exercise	1,732	1,732	Form 4
2026-08-10	O'Neill Julie	director	Option exercise	1,732	4,430	Form 4
2026-08-10	Murray Ciaran	director	Option exercise	2,677	23,129	Form 4
2026-08-10	Murray Ciaran	director	Option exercise	2,677	23,129	Form 4
2026-08-10	Murphy Ronan Martin	director	Option exercise	1,732	4,688	Form 4
2026-08-10	McCague Eugene Pacelli	director	Option exercise	1,732	4,652	Form 4
2026-08-10	Grais Linda	director	Option exercise	1,732	7,003	Form 4
2026-08-10	Clerkin Nigel Bernard John	officer	Option exercise	918	4,773	Form 4
2026-08-10	CLIMAX JOHN DR	director	Option exercise	1,732	2,928	Form 4
2026-08-10	Grais Linda	director	Option exercise	1,732	7,003	Form 4
2026-08-10	Whitaker Anne Clem	director	Option exercise	1,732	1,732	Form 4
2026-08-10	McCague Eugene Pacelli	director	Option exercise	1,732	4,652	Form 4
2026-08-10	Clerkin Nigel Bernard John	officer	Option exercise	3,375	8,148	Form 4
2026-08-10	Clerkin Nigel Bernard John	officer	Option exercise	3,375	8,148	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i