Issued 2026-09-16 at $154.10 · now $154.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ICE has typically landed between $137.83 and $170.55 — a range of −10.6% to +10.7% from the issuance price $154.10.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($154.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ICE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $154.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $154.1 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $155.81 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $148.65–$162.96
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $137.83–$170.55
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-12-17 | −37.9% | −37.9% | +3.3% |
| 2008-12-19 | −33.7% | −36.6% | +5.4% |
| 2008-12-31 | −33.4% | −38.3% | +2.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +55.8% | +0.0% | +61.5% |
| 2009-03-05 | +47.0% | +0.0% | +47.0% |
| 2009-03-10 | +44.1% | +0.0% | +44.1% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$161.63
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$112.54
- Analyst target · range $163.00–$208.00$184.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$154.10
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Foley Douglas | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $160.00 | $256K | −9.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 6,242 @ $160.17 | $1000K | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 165,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Edmonds Christopher Scott | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $160.59 | $803K | −25.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,367 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 5,020 @ $159.68 | $802K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 172,106 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $161.05 | $258K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 164,264 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Sale | 3,974 @ $161.67 | $642K | −8.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,665 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Tirinnanzi Martha A | director | Sale | 1,340 @ $161.16 | $216K | −26.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Sale | 600 @ $162.38 | $97K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,065 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Foley Douglas | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $160.00 | $256K | −8.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,463 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Gardiner Warren | officer | Sale | 2,491 @ $156.30 | $389K | −9.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,698 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Tirinnanzi Martha A | director | Sale | 141 @ $155.00 | $22K | −2.7% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,087 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Sale | 3,771 @ $151.33 | $571K | −5.2% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,088 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Sale | 400 @ $149.83 | $60K | −0.6% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Sale | 100 @ $151.78 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,988 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Foley Douglas | officer | Sale | 7,300 @ $148.88 | $1.1M | −27.7% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,063 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Martin Lynn C | officer | Sale | 9,482 @ $141.65 | $1.3M | −14.8% of holding | +5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,620 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Martin Lynn C | officer | Sale | 3,200 @ $140.90 | $451K | −4.8% of holding | +5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,102 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Martin Lynn C | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $139.75 | $419K | −4.3% of holding | +5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,302 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Martin Lynn C | officer | Sale | 200 @ $142.30 | $28K | −0.4% of holding | +5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,420 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Hague William Jefferson | director | Sale | 1,333 @ $139.46 | $186K | −6.2% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,132 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Hague William Jefferson | director | Sale | 91 @ $138.50 | $13K | −0.4% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,465 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Sale | 2,608 @ $152.00 | $396K | −5.4% of holding | −15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,473 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Sale | 1,965 @ $150.97 | $297K | −3.9% of holding | −15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,081 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Bowen Sharon | director | Sale | 667 @ $151.28 | $101K | −4.2% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,077 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Gardiner Warren | officer | Sale | 2,490 @ $156.64 | $390K | −9.0% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,189 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Sale | 2,900 @ $155.27 | $450K | −4.2% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,240 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Sale | 1,371 @ $155.73 | $214K | −2.1% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,869 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Foley Douglas | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $164.96 | $264K | −5.7% of holding | +1.6% | −17.7% | 26,262 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 3,865 @ $165.00 | $638K | −2.3% of holding | +3.6% | −13.2% | 161,439 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Sale | 3,099 @ $161.71 | $501K | −5.9% of holding | +1.8% | −12.8% | 49,653 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Sale | 1,472 @ $162.62 | $239K | −3.0% of holding | +1.8% | −12.8% | 48,181 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Martin Lynn C | officer | Sale | 8,193 @ $153.90 | $1.3M | −12.6% of holding | +7.1% | −6.2% | 56,619 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Martin Lynn C | officer | Sale | 2,963 @ $153.11 | $454K | −4.4% of holding | +7.1% | −6.2% | 64,812 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Martin Lynn C | officer | Sale | 2,300 @ $154.72 | $356K | −4.1% of holding | +7.1% | −6.2% | 54,319 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Edmonds Christopher Scott | officer | Sale | 4,750 @ $153.21 | $728K | −18.6% of holding | +8.1% | −8.4% | 20,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Edmonds Christopher Scott | officer | Sale | 4,653 @ $153.96 | $716K | −22.3% of holding | +8.1% | −8.4% | 16,166 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Gardiner Warren | officer | Sale | 2,490 @ $154.00 | $383K | −8.3% of holding | +8.1% | −8.4% | 27,679 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 1,919 @ $153.18 | $294K | −1.1% of holding | +8.1% | −8.4% | 167,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Edmonds Christopher Scott | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $154.91 | $263K | −10.5% of holding | +8.1% | −8.4% | 14,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 1,246 @ $153.90 | $192K | −0.7% of holding | +8.1% | −8.4% | 166,004 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 700 @ $154.93 | $108K | −0.4% of holding | +8.1% | −8.4% | 165,304 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Edmonds Christopher Scott | officer | Sale | 200 @ $155.72 | $31K | −1.4% of holding | +8.1% | −8.4% | 14,266 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Sprecher Jeffrey C | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $155.00 | $23.2M | −8.3% of holding | +6.3% | −10.6% | 1,651,705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Sprecher Jeffrey C | director | Sale | 129,937 @ $155.00 | $20.1M | −10.6% of holding | +6.3% | −10.6% | 1,094,923 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Sale | 10,694 @ $155.25 | $1.7M | −14.2% of holding | +6.3% | −10.6% | 64,869 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Sale | 4,519 @ $154.49 | $698K | −5.6% of holding | +6.3% | −10.6% | 75,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Sale | 12,861 @ $165.00 | $2.1M | −7.2% of holding | +0.0% | −19.7% | 165,692 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | SPRIESER JUDITH A | director | Sale | 1,522 @ $168.13 | $256K | −11.1% of holding | −1.6% | −24.8% | 12,247 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | SPRIESER JUDITH A | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $171.25 | $171K | −9.1% of holding | −1.6% | −24.8% | 9,947 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | SPRIESER JUDITH A | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $169.34 | $169K | −8.2% of holding | −1.6% | −24.8% | 11,247 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | SPRIESER JUDITH A | director | Sale | 700 @ $166.92 | $117K | −4.8% of holding | −1.6% | −24.8% | 13,769 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | SPRIESER JUDITH A | director | Sale | 300 @ $169.92 | $51K | −2.7% of holding | −1.6% | −24.8% | 10,947 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | SPRIESER JUDITH A | director | Sale | 100 @ $173.88 | $17K | −1.0% of holding | −1.6% | −24.8% | 9,747 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | SPRIESER JUDITH A | director | Sale | 100 @ $172.02 | $17K | −1.0% of holding | −1.6% | −24.8% | 9,847 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Foley Douglas | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $163.20 | $261K | −6.2% of holding | +4.7% | −23.3% | 24,196 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Sale | 3,409 @ $156.51 | $534K | −4.8% of holding | +2.3% | −16.8% | 67,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Sale | 1,936 @ $156.93 | $304K | −2.9% of holding | +2.3% | −16.8% | 65,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | SPRIESER JUDITH A | director | Sale | 3,300 @ $157.89 | $521K | −18.2% of holding | +2.0% | −17.8% | 14,869 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | SPRIESER JUDITH A | director | Sale | 400 @ $158.54 | $63K | −2.7% of holding | +2.0% | −17.8% | 14,469 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Gardiner Warren | officer | Sale | 1,572 @ $153.65 | $242K | −7.1% of holding | +1.5% | −15.7% | 20,534 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
168 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 6,431 | 170,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 6,431 | 177,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Edmonds Christopher Scott | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 19,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Edmonds Christopher Scott | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 6,431 | 6,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 6,431 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Option exercise | 2,065 | 47,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Option exercise | 2,065 | 2,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Option exercise | 4,271 | 69,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Option exercise | 3,028 | 72,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Option exercise | 3,028 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Option exercise | 4,271 | 5,764 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Martin Lynn C | officer | Option exercise | 15,882 | 70,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Martin Lynn C | officer | Option exercise | 15,882 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Option exercise | 2,065 | 50,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Option exercise | 2,065 | 4,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Hague William Jefferson | director | Withheld for tax | 50 | 21,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Bowen Sharon | director | Award / grant | 1,538 | 15,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Cooper Shantella E. | director | Award / grant | 1,538 | 11,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Pinto Daniel E | director | Award / grant | 1,538 | 1,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Hague William Jefferson | director | Award / grant | 1,538 | 21,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Hill Jonathan Hopkin | director | Award / grant | 1,698 | 3,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Hill Jonathan Hopkin | director | Withheld for tax | 27 | 3,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | NOONAN THOMAS E | director | Award / grant | 1,538 | 22,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Tirinnanzi Martha A | director | Award / grant | 1,698 | 5,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Silver Caroline Louise | director | Award / grant | 1,698 | 12,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Silver Caroline Louise | director | Withheld for tax | 64 | 12,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mulhern Mark F | director | Award / grant | 1,538 | 12,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Farooqui Duriya M | director | Award / grant | 1,538 | 15,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Option exercise | 4,271 | 69,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kapani Mayur | officer | Option exercise | 4,271 | 10,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 1,079 | 162,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 875 | 163,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 770 | 164,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 1,079 | 31,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 875 | 32,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Jackson Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 770 | 25,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Option exercise | 2,065 | 52,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Gift | 200 | 47,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Surdykowski Andrew J | officer | Option exercise | 2,065 | 6,194 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | purchase | 2026-07-09 | 2026-06-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-02-26 | 2026-01-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.