Issued 2026-09-16 at $41.58 · now $41.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IBTA has typically landed between $27.60 and $52.93 — a range of −33.6% to +27.3% from the issuance price $41.58.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
584 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-04-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($41.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IBTA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $41.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $41.58 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $40.84 (-1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.63–$46.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $27.6–$52.93
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 584 windows spanning 2024-04-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-01-30 | −56.4% | −56.4% | +0.0% |
| 2025-01-29 | −54.6% | −54.6% | +1.6% |
| 2025-01-28 | −54.5% | −54.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-31 | +55.0% | +0.0% | +61.8% |
| 2026-08-03 | +51.6% | +0.0% | +58.0% |
| 2026-07-24 | +46.4% | −8.6% | +48.0% |
584 overlapping windows · 2024-04-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.1%
n=2
Feb
50%
−16.5%
n=2
Mar
100%
+23.2%
n=2
Apr
100%
+16.5%
n=2
May
33%
−1.8%
n=3
Jun
0%
−16.6%
n=3
Jul
0%
−13.7%
n=3
Aug
33%
+4.7%
n=3
Sep
100%
+7.6%
n=3
Oct
100%
+17.4%
n=2
Nov
0%
−13.1%
n=2
Dec
0%
−7.9%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 20,100 @ $40.04 | $805K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 446,032 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 16,500 @ $40.07 | $661K | −6.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 244,882 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 3,600 @ $39.90 | $144K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 202,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 5,103 @ $37.74 | $193K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 823,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 26,497 @ $37.83 | $1.0M | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 828,989 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 7,503 @ $37.25 | $280K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 855,486 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Daspit Marisa | officer | Sale | 1,779 @ $37.25 | $66K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,428 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Daspit Marisa | officer | Sale | 1,177 @ $37.78 | $44K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 3,082 @ $37.30 | $115K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 261,382 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 3,082 @ $37.28 | $115K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 466,132 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 2,858 @ $36.63 | $105K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 264,464 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 2,858 @ $36.62 | $105K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 469,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Daspit Marisa | officer | Sale | 910 @ $37.31 | $34K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 120,207 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Daspit Marisa | officer | Sale | 802 @ $36.66 | $29K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 121,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 877 @ $36.60 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 866,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 24,025 @ $35.63 | $856K | −2.7% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 871,366 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 3,457 @ $36.75 | $127K | −0.4% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 867,909 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 2,306 @ $35.96 | $83K | −79.1% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 610 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 2,303 @ $35.96 | $83K | −79.0% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 1,425 @ $37.44 | $53K | −0.2% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 866,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 613 @ $37.24 | $23K | −100.0% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 610 @ $37.24 | $23K | −100.0% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Lehrman Thomas D | director | Sale | 12,221 @ $37.19 | $454K | −22.6% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,825 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Lehrman Thomas D | director | Sale | 8,261 @ $37.25 | $308K | −24.1% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,031 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Lehrman Thomas D | director | Sale | 5,327 @ $37.25 | $198K | −24.1% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,788 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Lehrman Thomas D | director | Sale | 3,705 @ $37.98 | $141K | −8.9% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,120 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Lehrman Thomas D | director | Sale | 461 @ $37.86 | $17K | −1.8% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,570 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Lehrman Thomas D | director | Sale | 298 @ $37.86 | $11K | −1.8% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,490 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Lehrman Thomas D | director | Sale | 4,957 @ $36.08 | $179K | −12.6% of holding | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,292 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Lehrman Thomas D | director | Sale | 4,692 @ $36.19 | $170K | −8.0% of holding | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,046 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Lehrman Thomas D | director | Sale | 3,197 @ $36.08 | $115K | −12.6% of holding | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,115 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Lehrman Thomas D | director | Sale | 11,892 @ $36.22 | $431K | −23.3% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,249 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Lehrman Thomas D | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $35.73 | $357K | −14.5% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,738 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Lehrman Thomas D | director | Sale | 7,669 @ $36.22 | $278K | −23.3% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,312 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 400 @ $39.90 | $16K | −0.2% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 205,600 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 200 @ $39.91 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 483,764 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 200 @ $39.90 | $8K | −0.1% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 267,322 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 32,693 @ $36.36 | $1.2M | −3.6% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 869,166 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 21,757 @ $35.66 | $776K | −2.4% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 901,859 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 6,522 @ $36.36 | $237K | −92.4% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 6,446 @ $36.36 | $234K | −92.4% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 4,403 @ $35.67 | $157K | −38.7% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 4,316 @ $35.66 | $154K | −37.9% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 2,682 @ $37.41 | $100K | −0.3% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 866,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 540 @ $37.41 | $20K | −100.0% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 529 @ $37.41 | $20K | −100.0% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 14,380 @ $24.39 | $351K | −1.6% of holding | +51.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 867,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 5,814 @ $24.46 | $142K | −1.2% of holding | +51.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 484,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 5,814 @ $24.44 | $142K | −2.1% of holding | +51.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 267,648 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 762 @ $25.17 | $19K | −0.1% of holding | +51.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 866,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 126 @ $25.12 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +51.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 267,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Sale | 126 @ $25.12 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +51.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 483,964 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 1,050 @ $31.83 | $33K | −0.1% of holding | +27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 866,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 7,091 @ $32.20 | $228K | −0.8% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 866,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 7,001 @ $31.44 | $220K | −0.8% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 873,575 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Clark Jermoluk Founders Fund I LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 500,000 @ $30.15 | $15.1M | −13.0% of holding | +10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,341,308 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 5,711 @ $32.67 | $187K | −0.7% of holding | +10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 870,099 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 2,723 @ $33.40 | $91K | −0.3% of holding | +10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 867,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 844 @ $34.77 | $29K | −0.1% of holding | +10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 866,532 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Leach Bryan | director | Sale | 48 @ $35.24 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 866,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
146 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 15,142 | 862,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 15,142 | 18,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Puckett Matthew H | officer | Withheld for tax | 33,347 | 303,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Leach Bryan | director | Withheld for tax | 18,637 | 847,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Riedy Christopher J | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,988 | 363,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Swanson Luke Roy | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,692 | 472,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Shapiro David T | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,821 | 221,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | El Tabib Amir | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,404 | 200,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Daspit Marisa | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,951 | 121,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Chomko Jared | officer | Withheld for tax | 469 | 34,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Chomko Jared | officer | Withheld for tax | 406 | 34,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 877 | 867,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 877 | 33,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 28,907 | 895,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 28,907 | 34,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Leach Bryan | director | Conversion | 2,916 | 2,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Leach Bryan | director | Conversion | 2,916 | 102,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 57,132 | 923,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Conversion | 11,378 | 105,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 57,132 | 63,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Leach Bryan | director | Conversion | 11,378 | 11,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 15,142 | 881,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 15,142 | 120,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Chomko Jared | officer | Option exercise | 1,475 | 34,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Chomko Jared | officer | Option exercise | 375 | 34,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Chomko Jared | officer | Option exercise | 1,475 | 625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Chomko Jared | officer | Option exercise | 375 | 5,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 1,050 | 867,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 1,050 | 135,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 14,092 | 880,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 14,092 | 136,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 9,326 | 875,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Leach Bryan | director | Conversion | 38 | 116,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 9,326 | 150,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Leach Bryan | director | Conversion | 38 | 38 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 6,061 | 872,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Leach Bryan | director | Conversion | 1,094 | 116,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 6,061 | 159,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Leach Bryan | director | Conversion | 1,094 | 1,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Leach Bryan | director | Option exercise | 15,834 | 882,318 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.