Issued 2026-09-16 at $199.52 · now $199.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IBP has typically landed between $165.80 and $242.53 — a range of −16.9% to +21.6% from the issuance price $199.52.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,133 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-02-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($199.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IBP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $199.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $199.52 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $203.13 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $184.27–$221.99
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $165.8–$242.53
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,133 windows spanning 2014-02-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −59.7% | −59.7% | +5.1% |
| 2020-02-21 | −56.2% | −61.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-05 | −54.6% | −56.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-27 | +64.7% | +0.0% | +64.7% |
| 2020-04-23 | +61.4% | +0.0% | +61.4% |
| 2020-04-22 | +59.1% | +0.0% | +59.1% |
3,133 overlapping windows · 2014-02-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+4.4%
n=12
Feb
58%
+1.2%
n=12
Mar
62%
+0.3%
n=13
Apr
38%
+2.9%
n=13
May
46%
+0.9%
n=13
Jun
69%
+6.2%
n=13
Jul
54%
+5.4%
n=13
Aug
54%
+2.4%
n=13
Sep
46%
−2.2%
n=13
Oct
50%
−2.1%
n=12
Nov
92%
+13.4%
n=12
Dec
42%
−0.6%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Jackson Janet E. | director | Sale | 1,086 @ $237.06 | $257K | −17.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,142 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 278 @ $196.95 | $55K | +0.8% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,562 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 155 @ $206.74 | $32K | +0.5% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,209 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 145 @ $197.55 | $29K | +0.4% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,707 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 133 @ $201.91 | $27K | +0.4% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,855 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 99 @ $202.73 | $20K | +0.3% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,954 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 80 @ $205.52 | $16K | +0.2% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,054 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 65 @ $195.89 | $13K | +0.2% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,284 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 20 @ $204.32 | $4K | +0.1% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,974 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 14 @ $198.79 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,721 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 1 @ $200.03 | $200 | +0.0% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,722 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 802 @ $206.06 | $165K | +2.5% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Wheeler Brad A | officer | Purchase | 716 @ $209.13 | $150K | +5.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,988 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 520 @ $205.08 | $107K | +1.7% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,583 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Hilsheimer Lawrence A. | director | Purchase | 475 @ $206.22 | $98K | +1.7% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,468 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Niswonger Jason R | officer | Purchase | 455 @ $214.80 | $98K | +2.7% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,122 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 244 @ $204.10 | $50K | +0.8% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,063 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 190 @ $216.33 | $41K | +0.6% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,099 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 154 @ $207.04 | $32K | +0.5% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,539 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 110 @ $217.46 | $24K | +0.3% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 110 @ $208.43 | $23K | +0.3% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,649 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 70 @ $209.31 | $15K | +0.2% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,719 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 50 @ $213.88 | $11K | +0.2% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,879 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 50 @ $211.48 | $11K | +0.2% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,809 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 40 @ $210.58 | $8K | +0.1% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,759 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 30 @ $215.24 | $6K | +0.1% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,909 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 20 @ $212.75 | $4K | +0.1% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,829 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 10 @ $217.91 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,219 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Carter Margot Lebenberg | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $299.31 | $599K | −21.2% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,413 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Jackson Janet E. | director | Sale | 1,410 @ $293.31 | $414K | −20.8% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,373 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Sale | 400,000 @ $314.06 | $125.6M | −18.8% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,727,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | THOMAS MICHAEL H | director | Sale | 2,001 @ $268.28 | $537K | −19.3% of holding | −3.0% | −37.1% | 8,373 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | HIRE WILLIAM JEFFREY | officer | Sale | 4,900 @ $251.62 | $1.2M | −12.9% of holding | +1.4% | −31.3% | 33,099 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | HIRE WILLIAM JEFFREY | officer | Sale | 100 @ $252.05 | $25K | −0.3% of holding | +1.4% | −31.3% | 32,999 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Wheeler Brad A | officer | Sale | 3,186 @ $275.29 | $877K | −26.7% of holding | −12.3% | +9.2% | 8,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Jackson Janet E. | director | Sale | 1,469 @ $266.00 | $391K | −17.6% of holding | −8.7% | +10.4% | 6,873 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | HIRE WILLIAM JEFFREY | officer | Sale | 5,366 @ $265.61 | $1.4M | −12.4% of holding | −4.6% | +23.1% | 37,999 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | HIRE WILLIAM JEFFREY | officer | Sale | 1,134 @ $266.20 | $302K | −2.5% of holding | −4.6% | +23.1% | 43,365 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | FRY TODD R | officer | Sale | 500 @ $257.27 | $129K | −6.8% of holding | +2.9% | +24.5% | 6,822 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 1,147 @ $166.28 | $191K | +4.6% of holding | −2.6% | +37.4% | 26,014 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 600 @ $164.00 | $98K | +2.5% of holding | −2.6% | +37.4% | 24,564 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 400 @ $162.99 | $65K | +1.7% of holding | −2.6% | +37.4% | 23,964 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 300 @ $167.03 | $50K | +1.2% of holding | −2.6% | +37.4% | 26,314 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Purchase | 303 @ $165.19 | $50K | +1.2% of holding | −2.6% | +37.4% | 24,867 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
75 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Gift | 2,500 | 193,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Carter Margot Lebenberg | director | Award / grant | 855 | 8,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Jackson Janet E. | director | Award / grant | 855 | 6,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Moore Marchelle E | director | Award / grant | 855 | 3,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | SCHOTTENSTEIN ROBERT H | director | Award / grant | 855 | 4,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | THOMAS MICHAEL H | director | Award / grant | 855 | 9,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | MEUSE DAVID R | director | Award / grant | 855 | 6,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Hilsheimer Lawrence A. | director | Award / grant | 855 | 29,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Niswonger Jason R | officer | Gift | 25 | 17,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Withheld for tax | 11,214 | 196,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Withheld for tax | 3,361 | 30,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | HIRE WILLIAM JEFFREY | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,844 | 31,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Niswonger Jason R | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,406 | 16,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Wheeler Brad A | officer | Withheld for tax | 916 | 14,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | FRY TODD R | officer | Withheld for tax | 756 | 7,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Gift | 5,000 | 26,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Hilsheimer Lawrence A. | director | Gift | 30 | 27,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Other acquisition | 225,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Other acquisition | 225,000 | 225,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Other acquisition | 125,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Other acquisition | 125,000 | 125,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | HIRE WILLIAM JEFFREY | officer | Award / grant | 1,768 | 34,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Award / grant | 23,388 | 207,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Award / grant | 469 | 207,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Award / grant | 7,397 | 33,711 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Award / grant | 469 | 34,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Wheeler Brad A | officer | Award / grant | 5,983 | 14,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Wheeler Brad A | officer | Award / grant | 469 | 15,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Niswonger Jason R | officer | Award / grant | 3,128 | 17,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Niswonger Jason R | officer | Award / grant | 469 | 18,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | FRY TODD R | officer | Award / grant | 1,631 | 8,453 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-02 | Jackson Janet E. | director | Gift | 10 | 6,783 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Disposition | 150,000 | 2,127,819 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-11 | Miller Michael Thomas | director | Gift | 1,900 | 31,420 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | Jackson Janet E. | director | Gift | 10 | 6,793 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-27 | Jackson Janet E. | director | Gift | 10 | 6,803 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Gift | 7,500 | 183,660 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-22 | Jackson Janet E. | director | Gift | 60 | 6,813 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Disposition | 200,000 | 2,277,819 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-12 | Edwards Jeffrey W. | director | Other acquisition | 225,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-07-01 | 2026-06-15 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-04-02 | 2026-03-24 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-12 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-26 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-02-02 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-02-02 | 2026-01-16 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-02-02 | 2026-01-16 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2025-11-18 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2025-11-18 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2025-09-02 | 2025-08-07 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2025-09-02 | 2025-08-13 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2025-06-02 | 2025-05-15 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2025-04-03 | 2025-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-02-13 | 2025-01-13 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.