IBMInternational Business Machines CorporationTechnology · Information Technology Servicesas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $225.51 · now $225.51 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, IBM has typically landed between $200.30 and $256.54 — a range of −11.2% to +13.8% from the issuance price $225.51.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($225.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where IBM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $225.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$200.3worst · -11.2%$256.54best · +13.8%
  • now $225.51 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $228.89 (+1.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $215.94–$241.85
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $200.3–$256.54
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−36.9%−36.9%+0.0%
2020-02-21−36.8%−36.8%+0.0%
2020-02-13−35.8%−35.8%+0.0%
3 best
2026-05-01+42.8%−6.9%+42.8%
2026-04-30+39.7%−6.4%+39.7%
2026-05-04+34.2%−5.8%+44.5%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$201.8B
market cap
$11.30
EPS (TTM)
19.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-21
next earnings
Revenue$67.5B
'20'25
Net income$10.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$11.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr32.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.06
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $225.51$158.08$403.44
  • DCF (intrinsic)$383.90
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$386.52
  • Analyst target · range $175.00–$350.00$262.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$225.51

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+3.5%
n=18
Feb
63%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.3%
n=19
Apr
47%
−0.0%
n=19
May
58%
+2.2%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.0%
n=19
Jul
68%
+1.3%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Sep
53%
+1.7%
n=19
Oct
39%
−3.2%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.0%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$329$2062026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $5.8M — Thomas Robert David2026-02-25: 2 insider purchases, $113K — Miebach Michael, HOWARD MICHELLE J2026-01-30: 1 insider purchase, $304K — FARR DAVID N2026-01: 1 open-market purchase, $304K2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $113K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $5.8M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Thomas Robert David — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Miebach Michael — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed same daydirector HOWARD MICHELLE J — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed same daydirector FARR DAVID N — Purchase on 2026-01-30, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-26Thomas Robert DavidofficerSale25,000 @ $230.32$5.8M−34.3% of holding−2.6%not yet — horizon still open47,800Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-25Miebach MichaeldirectorPurchase434 @ $233.33$101Kownership Δ n/a+8.4%−13.6%434Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-25HOWARD MICHELLE JdirectorPurchase50 @ $237.83$12K+34.7% of holding+8.4%−13.6%194Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-30FARR DAVID NdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $304.00$304K+12.1% of holding−17.9%−35.3%9,258Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-03Thomas Robert DavidofficerSale26,543 @ $253.01$6.7M−37.1% of holding+3.7%−12.5%45,007Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-28FARR DAVID NdirectorPurchase1,200 @ $249.00$299K+17.0% of holding+4.1%−11.5%8,258Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

294 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-27KRISHNA ARVINDdirectorDiscretionary8,37628,447Form 4
2026-07-01Robinson AnneofficerWithheld for tax3,25413,017Form 4
2026-07-01Robinson AnneofficerWithheld for tax78113,648Form 4
2026-07-01Robinson AnneofficerOption exercise5,88316,271Form 4
2026-07-01Robinson AnneofficerOption exercise1,41214,429Form 4
2026-07-01Robinson AnneofficerOption exercise5,8835,884Form 4
2026-07-01Robinson AnneofficerOption exercise1,4122,824Form 4
2026-06-30Gorsky AlexdirectorAward / grant38334,605Form 4
2026-06-30VOSER PETER R.directorAward / grant35632,600Form 4
2026-06-30LIVERIS ANDREW NdirectorAward / grant34744,497Form 4
2026-06-30Buberl ThomasdirectorAward / grant34114,706Form 4
2026-06-30Laguarta RamondirectorAward / grant325451Form 4
2026-06-30Miebach MichaeldirectorAward / grant3254,278Form 4
2026-06-30Brown Marianne CatherinedirectorAward / grant3254,016Form 4
2026-06-30ZOLLAR ALFRED WdirectorAward / grant3259,940Form 4
2026-06-30MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM IIIdirectorAward / grant32516,518Form 4
2026-06-30HOWARD MICHELLE JdirectorAward / grant22816,639Form 4
2026-06-30FARR DAVID NdirectorAward / grant20923,346Form 4
2026-06-30Pollack Martha EdirectorAward / grant20917,506Form 4
2026-06-04Fehring Nicolas A.officerGift40016,578Form 4
2026-03-31Gorsky AlexdirectorAward / grant44434,011Form 4
2026-03-31VOSER PETER R.directorAward / grant41332,045Form 4
2026-03-31LIVERIS ANDREW NdirectorAward / grant40343,878Form 4
2026-03-31WADDELL FREDERICK HdirectorAward / grant40323,571Form 4
2026-03-31Miebach MichaeldirectorAward / grant3773,929Form 4
2026-03-31ZOLLAR ALFRED WdirectorAward / grant3779,557Form 4
2026-03-31MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM IIIdirectorAward / grant37716,094Form 4
2026-03-31Buberl ThomasdirectorAward / grant37714,278Form 4
2026-03-31Brown Marianne CatherinedirectorAward / grant3773,669Form 4
2026-03-31HOWARD MICHELLE JdirectorAward / grant26416,311Form 4
2026-03-31Pollack Martha EdirectorAward / grant24317,190Form 4
2026-03-31FARR DAVID NdirectorAward / grant24322,994Form 4
2026-03-31Laguarta RamondirectorAward / grant126126Form 4
2026-02-26Fehring Nicolas A.officerAward / grant7,5847,584Form 4
2026-02-26Fehring Nicolas A.officerAward / grant2,8442,844Form 4
2026-02-26Robinson AnneofficerAward / grant6,3416,341Form 4
2026-02-26Robinson AnneofficerAward / grant25,36325,363Form 4
2026-02-26Thomas Robert DavidofficerAward / grant10,56510,565Form 4
2026-02-26LAMOREAUX NICKLE JACLYNofficerAward / grant25,13825,138Form 4
2026-02-26LAMOREAUX NICKLE JACLYNofficerAward / grant6,2856,285Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Lloyd DoggettHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Matthew Robert Van EppsHousesale2026-06-172026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-21$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-06-082026-05-15$15–50K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-21$15–50K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2026-05-192026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-05-082026-04-14$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.