Issued 2026-09-16 at $86.74 · now $86.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IBKR has typically landed between $75.72 and $102.51 — a range of −12.7% to +18.2% from the issuance price $86.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($86.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IBKR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $86.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $86.74 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $89.77 (+3.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $84.21–$95.33
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $75.72–$102.51
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −40.1% | −40.1% | +1.8% |
| 2020-02-21 | −35.8% | −35.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-21 | −34.4% | −34.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-21 | +37.0% | +0.0% | +37.0% |
| 2025-04-16 | +32.4% | −2.8% | +32.4% |
| 2025-04-17 | +30.4% | −3.8% | +31.1% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$26.65
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$40.96
- Analyst target · range $98.00–$114.00$109.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$86.74
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Conkling Lori A | director | Purchase | 25 @ $94.53 | $2K | +1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Conkling Lori A | director | Purchase | 25 @ $87.03 | $2K | +1.0% of holding | +2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,534 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Conkling Lori A | director | Purchase | 25 @ $88.03 | $2K | +1.0% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,509 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | Conkling Lori A | director | Purchase | 25 @ $86.10 | $2K | +1.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Conkling Lori A | director | Purchase | 25 @ $79.64 | $2K | +1.0% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,459 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Harris Lawrence E | director | Sale | 26,000 @ $76.93 | $2.0M | −13.0% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,482 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Conkling Lori A | director | Purchase | 25 @ $68.38 | $2K | +1.0% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,434 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Conkling Lori A | director | Purchase | 25 @ $69.21 | $2K | +1.0% of holding | −1.4% | +23.4% | 2,409 | Form 4 · filed 24 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Conkling Lori A | director | Purchase | 50 @ $73.21 | $4K | +2.1% of holding | −3.3% | +20.8% | 2,384 | Form 4 · filed 29 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Nemser Earl H | director | Sale | 39,731 @ $75.07 | $3.0M | −66.0% of holding | −0.3% | +9.1% | 20,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Nemser Earl H | director | Sale | 20,469 @ $75.75 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | −0.3% | +9.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Nemser Earl H | director | Sale | 60,882 @ $75.83 | $4.6M | −39.3% of holding | −2.3% | +13.4% | 94,118 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Nemser Earl H | director | Sale | 30,817 @ $76.72 | $2.4M | −32.7% of holding | −2.3% | +13.4% | 63,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Nemser Earl H | director | Sale | 3,101 @ $77.98 | $242K | −4.9% of holding | −2.3% | +13.4% | 60,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Nemser Earl H | director | Sale | 84,935 @ $77.65 | $6.6M | −28.3% of holding | −7.0% | +11.4% | 215,065 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Nemser Earl H | director | Sale | 60,065 @ $78.14 | $4.7M | −27.9% of holding | −7.0% | +11.4% | 155,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Nemser Earl H | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $76.81 | $7.7M | −25.0% of holding | −6.4% | +11.3% | 300,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Harris Lawrence E | director | Sale | 10,645 @ $69.00 | $735K | −5.1% of holding | −5.5% | +11.1% | 198,704 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Harris Lawrence E | director | Sale | 6,855 @ $69.15 | $474K | −3.2% of holding | −5.4% | +10.9% | 209,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Harris Lawrence E | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $69.73 | $523K | −3.4% of holding | −7.6% | +6.7% | 216,204 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Harris Lawrence E | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $68.50 | $548K | −3.5% of holding | −7.9% | +7.3% | 223,704 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | Harris Lawrence E | director | Sale | 22,000 @ $67.63 | $1.5M | −8.7% of holding | −7.2% | +8.7% | 231,704 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | Bright Jill | director | Purchase | 400 @ $65.95 | $26K | +4.0% of holding | −7.2% | +8.7% | 10,304 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 1,979 @ $69.30 | $137K | −19.7% of holding | −2.6% | +0.0% | 8,083 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 1,155 @ $70.00 | $81K | −14.3% of holding | −2.6% | +0.0% | 6,928 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 8,792 @ $68.27 | $600K | −42.1% of holding | −3.7% | −0.8% | 12,083 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 7,414 @ $67.16 | $498K | −26.2% of holding | −3.7% | −0.8% | 20,875 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 2,021 @ $68.70 | $139K | −16.7% of holding | −3.7% | −0.8% | 10,062 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 15,477 @ $65.74 | $1.0M | −34.1% of holding | +1.6% | +0.5% | 29,870 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 1,581 @ $66.15 | $105K | −5.3% of holding | +1.6% | +0.5% | 28,289 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 8,866 @ $64.76 | $574K | −15.2% of holding | +2.9% | +2.1% | 49,595 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 4,248 @ $65.19 | $277K | −8.6% of holding | +2.9% | +2.1% | 45,347 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 1,182 @ $63.81 | $75K | −2.0% of holding | +2.9% | +2.1% | 58,461 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 13,464 @ $64.76 | $872K | −18.2% of holding | +2.6% | +4.8% | 60,570 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 927 @ $65.54 | $61K | −1.5% of holding | +2.6% | +4.8% | 59,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 12,798 @ $65.49 | $838K | −14.7% of holding | −1.8% | +5.5% | 74,034 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 6,227 @ $64.90 | $404K | −6.7% of holding | −1.8% | +5.5% | 86,832 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 14,639 @ $63.94 | $936K | −13.5% of holding | +2.5% | +4.7% | 93,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 563 @ $64.61 | $36K | −0.6% of holding | +2.5% | +4.7% | 93,059 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 50,553 @ $64.61 | $3.3M | −31.8% of holding | +1.8% | +5.3% | 108,401 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 140 @ $65.19 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | +1.8% | +5.3% | 108,261 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 71,019 @ $65.05 | $4.6M | −30.9% of holding | +1.4% | +2.3% | 158,954 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 37,905 @ $64.40 | $2.4M | −14.2% of holding | +1.4% | +2.3% | 229,973 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 7,937 @ $63.43 | $503K | −2.9% of holding | +1.4% | +2.3% | 267,878 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 61,794 @ $62.06 | $3.8M | −16.2% of holding | +9.4% | +8.2% | 320,542 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 44,727 @ $62.48 | $2.8M | −14.0% of holding | +9.4% | +8.2% | 275,815 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 98,601 @ $62.24 | $6.1M | −20.5% of holding | +10.6% | +9.0% | 382,923 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 587 @ $62.62 | $37K | −0.2% of holding | +10.6% | +9.0% | 382,336 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 57,289 @ $62.66 | $3.6M | −9.9% of holding | +10.9% | +8.4% | 520,529 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 37,506 @ $63.79 | $2.4M | −7.2% of holding | +10.9% | +8.4% | 483,023 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 1,499 @ $64.26 | $96K | −0.3% of holding | +10.9% | +8.4% | 481,524 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 61,617 @ $64.19 | $4.0M | −9.6% of holding | +9.6% | +5.1% | 577,818 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 35,592 @ $63.84 | $2.3M | −5.3% of holding | +9.6% | +5.1% | 639,435 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 57,851 @ $62.94 | $3.6M | −7.3% of holding | +9.4% | +3.4% | 729,750 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 54,723 @ $63.54 | $3.5M | −7.5% of holding | +9.4% | +3.4% | 675,027 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 104,906 @ $62.51 | $6.6M | −11.8% of holding | +13.0% | +4.6% | 787,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 84,956 @ $62.02 | $5.3M | −8.7% of holding | +12.0% | +5.6% | 892,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Sale | 22,537 @ $61.30 | $1.4M | −2.3% of holding | +12.0% | +5.6% | 977,463 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Nemser Earl H | director | Sale | 33,379 @ $63.86 | $2.1M | −7.4% of holding | −5.0% | +10.9% | 420,521 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Nemser Earl H | director | Sale | 20,521 @ $64.22 | $1.3M | −4.9% of holding | −5.0% | +10.9% | 400,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Nemser Earl H | director | Award / grant | 803,568 | 803,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Galik Milan | director | Withheld for tax | 255,039 | 3,215,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Withheld for tax | 82,920 | 2,856,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Frank Thomas AJ | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,730 | 251,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Nemser Earl H | director | Withheld for tax | 22,486 | 429,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Mendonca Denis | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,157 | 145,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Conkling Lori A | director | Award / grant | 389 | 2,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Harris Lawrence E | director | Award / grant | 389 | 199,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Nemser Earl H | director | Award / grant | 389 | 451,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 389 | 2,939,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Yuen Nicole | director | Award / grant | 389 | 10,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Repetto Richard H | director | Award / grant | 389 | 3,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Peterffy William | director | Award / grant | 389 | 10,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Galik Milan | director | Award / grant | 389 | 3,470,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Bright Jill | director | Award / grant | 389 | 11,082 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 389 | 2,939,337 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Yuen Nicole | director | Award / grant | 389 | 9,737 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Harris Lawrence E | director | Award / grant | 389 | 199,093 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Repetto Richard H | director | Award / grant | 389 | 2,657 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Nemser Earl H | director | Award / grant | 389 | 451,441 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Galik Milan | director | Award / grant | 389 | 3,470,039 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Peterffy William | director | Award / grant | 389 | 9,737 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Bright Jill | director | Award / grant | 389 | 10,693 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Conkling Lori A | director | Award / grant | 389 | 1,556 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Galik Milan | director | Award / grant | 224,650 | 3,469,650 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Conkling Lori A | director | Award / grant | 389 | 1,945 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 53,452 | 2,938,948 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Conkling Lori A | director | Award / grant | 1,167 | 1,167 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Mendonca Denis | officer | Award / grant | 11,156 | 156,228 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Nemser Earl H | director | Award / grant | 23,240 | 451,052 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Frank Thomas AJ | officer | Award / grant | 13,944 | 283,248 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-29 | Galik Milan | director | Other acquisition | 895,688 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-30 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-30 | Nemser Earl H | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 760,114 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-23 | Nemser Earl H | director | Gift | 500 | 427,812 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | Galik Milan | director | Withheld for tax | 63,580 | 811,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | Brody Paul Jonathan | director | Withheld for tax | 22,192 | 721,374 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | Frank Thomas AJ | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,212 | 67,326 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | Nemser Earl H | director | Withheld for tax | 5,178 | 107,078 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-09 | Mendonca Denis | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,467 | 36,268 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-14 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2025-08-13 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-24 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Morgan Mcgarvey | House | sale | 2024-12-10 | 2024-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Morgan Mcgarvey | House | purchase | 2024-07-03 | 2024-06-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-06-12 | 2023-05-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-05 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.