Issued 2026-09-16 at $40.28 · now $40.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IBEX has typically landed between $34.81 and $48.32 — a range of −13.6% to +20.0% from the issuance price $40.28.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,513 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-08-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($40.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IBEX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $40.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $40.28 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $40.98 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $38.11–$43.84
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $34.81–$48.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,513 windows spanning 2020-08-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-08-19 | −45.1% | −45.5% | +0.8% |
| 2020-08-18 | −44.8% | −44.8% | +2.0% |
| 2020-08-10 | −42.7% | −42.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-09-14 | +76.7% | −8.8% | +76.7% |
| 2020-09-10 | +75.3% | −4.4% | +75.3% |
| 2020-09-09 | +72.2% | −5.6% | +72.2% |
1,513 overlapping windows · 2020-08-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+2.2%
n=6
Feb
67%
+2.3%
n=6
Mar
17%
−4.3%
n=6
Apr
50%
−3.8%
n=6
May
83%
+9.7%
n=6
Jun
50%
−2.0%
n=6
Jul
83%
+5.3%
n=6
Aug
17%
−2.2%
n=6
Sep
57%
+5.4%
n=7
Oct
33%
−2.5%
n=6
Nov
67%
+10.7%
n=6
Dec
50%
+1.4%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Inson Paul Joseph | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $40.07 | $100K | −8.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,224 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-16 | Trofimuk-O'Connor Christina Alice | officer | Sale | 2,376 @ $39.34 | $93K | −8.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,855 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $39.99 | $1000K | −8.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 262,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Casteel Julie K | officer | Sale | 17,474 @ $40.41 | $706K | −14.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 100,814 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Trofimuk-O'Connor Christina Alice | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $40.30 | $302K | −20.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,231 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Zhuang Mingzhe | director | Sale | 5,522 @ $40.10 | $221K | −66.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,813 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Ballou-Aares Daniella | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $40.29 | $60K | −12.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,395 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Afdahl David Martin | officer | Sale | 10,819 @ $40.07 | $433K | −7.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 129,187 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Inson Paul Joseph | officer | Sale | 2,274 @ $40.00 | $91K | −7.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,724 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Afdahl David Martin | officer | Sale | 17,500 @ $37.09 | $649K | −11.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 140,006 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Casteel Julie K | officer | Sale | 3,600 @ $30.61 | $110K | −3.0% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,594 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | McGinnis Patrick | director | Sale | 1,030 @ $31.69 | $33K | −15.0% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,833 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Greenwald Taylor C | officer | Sale | 964 @ $32.02 | $31K | −1.5% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,230 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 7,800 @ $30.50 | $238K | −2.7% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 285,606 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | Dawson Bruce Neil | officer | Sale | 15,260 @ $31.12 | $475K | −19.8% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,895 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Dawson Bruce Neil | officer | Sale | 3,129 @ $32.80 | $103K | −3.9% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,155 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $28.46 | $171K | −2.1% of holding | +1.8% | +20.2% | 275,406 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-20 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $29.40 | $176K | −2.1% of holding | +1.9% | +12.1% | 281,406 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $29.73 | $178K | −2.0% of holding | −0.2% | +10.3% | 287,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $29.98 | $180K | −2.0% of holding | −0.7% | +6.7% | 293,406 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $29.63 | $178K | −2.0% of holding | −0.9% | +5.9% | 299,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Inson Paul Joseph | officer | Sale | 2,627 @ $34.98 | $92K | −8.7% of holding | −14.7% | −6.7% | 27,469 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Darwal Michael Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,660 @ $34.98 | $58K | −3.8% of holding | −14.7% | −6.7% | 42,185 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Ballou-Aares Daniella | director | Sale | 500 @ $35.01 | $18K | −4.5% of holding | +3.1% | −26.7% | 10,643 | Form 4 · filed 136 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 6,711 @ $39.58 | $266K | −3.2% of holding | −7.3% | −29.1% | 199,812 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-02 | Greenwald Taylor C | officer | Sale | 1,275 @ $39.58 | $50K | −3.4% of holding | −7.3% | −29.1% | 36,482 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-02 | Afdahl David Martin | officer | Sale | 1,103 @ $39.58 | $44K | −1.9% of holding | −7.3% | −29.1% | 57,111 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-02 | Trofimuk-O'Connor Christina Alice | officer | Sale | 1,001 @ $39.58 | $40K | −6.7% of holding | −7.3% | −29.1% | 13,954 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-02 | Dawson Bruce Neil | officer | Sale | 959 @ $39.58 | $38K | −12.4% of holding | −7.3% | −29.1% | 6,761 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-02 | Casteel Julie K | officer | Sale | 806 @ $39.58 | $32K | −2.8% of holding | −7.3% | −29.1% | 28,317 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-02 | Inson Paul Joseph | officer | Sale | 697 @ $39.58 | $28K | −12.4% of holding | −7.3% | −29.1% | 4,916 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-19 | Greenwald Taylor C | officer | Sale | 2,295 @ $40.73 | $93K | −6.4% of holding | −10.8% | −29.1% | 33,561 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 45,027 @ $38.89 | $1.8M | −19.0% of holding | −7.0% | −27.2% | 191,999 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Dawson Bruce Neil | officer | Sale | 8,114 @ $38.14 | $309K | −60.7% of holding | −7.0% | −27.2% | 5,257 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Casteel Julie K | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $39.00 | $195K | −16.2% of holding | −7.0% | −27.2% | 25,895 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Trofimuk-O'Connor Christina Alice | officer | Sale | 844 @ $38.50 | $32K | −6.7% of holding | −7.0% | −27.2% | 11,727 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Dawson Bruce Neil | officer | Sale | 765 @ $38.29 | $29K | −14.6% of holding | −7.0% | −27.2% | 4,492 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Inson Paul Joseph | officer | Sale | 3,831 @ $38.94 | $149K | −54.0% of holding | −13.1% | −33.0% | 3,266 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 1,634 @ $29.13 | $48K | −0.8% of holding | +39.1% | −7.6% | 191,999 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Greenwald Taylor C | officer | Sale | 438 @ $29.13 | $13K | −1.2% of holding | +39.1% | −7.6% | 35,856 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Afdahl David Martin | officer | Sale | 403 @ $29.13 | $12K | −0.7% of holding | +39.1% | −7.6% | 54,986 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Trofimuk-O'Connor Christina Alice | officer | Sale | 366 @ $29.13 | $11K | −2.8% of holding | +39.1% | −7.6% | 12,571 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Dawson Bruce Neil | officer | Sale | 350 @ $29.13 | $10K | −6.2% of holding | +39.1% | −7.6% | 5,257 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Casteel Julie K | officer | Sale | 295 @ $29.13 | $9K | −0.9% of holding | +39.1% | −7.6% | 30,895 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Inson Paul Joseph | officer | Sale | 255 @ $29.13 | $7K | −3.5% of holding | +39.1% | −7.6% | 7,097 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Inson Paul Joseph | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $30.00 | $300K | −57.6% of holding | +33.5% | −15.2% | 7,352 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-03 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 4,376 @ $30.00 | $131K | −2.2% of holding | −9.0% | +8.7% | 193,633 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-02 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 624 @ $30.00 | $19K | −0.3% of holding | −7.5% | +17.0% | 198,009 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Khaishgi Mohammedulla | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $28.01 | $140K | −68.4% of holding | +2.3% | +17.5% | 2,312 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | Khaishgi Mohammedulla | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $28.08 | $983K | −82.7% of holding | +2.4% | +20.3% | 7,312 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $28.96 | $434K | −7.0% of holding | +2.4% | +20.3% | 198,633 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Khaishgi Mohammedulla | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $29.66 | $1.0M | −45.3% of holding | −5.2% | +8.8% | 42,312 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | McGinnis Patrick | director | Sale | 220 @ $30.00 | $7K | −4.4% of holding | −5.2% | +8.8% | 4,780 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-27 | Inson Paul Joseph | officer | Sale | 3,690 @ $28.59 | $105K | −17.5% of holding | −2.2% | +9.9% | 17,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Ballou-Aares Daniella | director | Sale | 5,843 @ $24.22 | $142K | −34.1% of holding | −1.5% | +50.7% | 11,300 | Form 4 · filed 400 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Ballou-Aares Daniella | director | Sale | 157 @ $24.21 | $4K | −1.4% of holding | −1.5% | +50.7% | 11,143 | Form 4 · filed 400 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Dawson Bruce Neil | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $24.48 | $245K | −64.1% of holding | +6.1% | +6.7% | 5,607 | Form 4 · filed 72 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Sale | 49,931 @ $26.24 | $1.3M | −18.9% of holding | +2.3% | +4.8% | 213,633 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Khaishgi Mohammedulla | director | Sale | 12,600 @ $25.57 | $322K | −14.0% of holding | +3.0% | +9.4% | 77,312 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-20 | Khaishgi Mohammedulla | director | Sale | 12,600 @ $26.50 | $334K | −12.3% of holding | +5.0% | +8.0% | 89,912 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
91 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Withheld for tax | 4,910 | 287,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Afdahl David Martin | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,304 | 157,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Inson Paul Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,053 | 31,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Casteel Julie K | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,042 | 118,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Greenwald Taylor C | officer | Withheld for tax | 956 | 63,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Trofimuk-O'Connor Christina Alice | officer | Withheld for tax | 950 | 36,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Dawson Bruce Neil | officer | Withheld for tax | 855 | 62,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Dawson Bruce Neil | officer | Award / grant | 1,954 | 62,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Award / grant | 10,826 | 291,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Greenwald Taylor C | officer | Award / grant | 3,307 | 64,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Jones John William | director | Award / grant | 1,353 | 16,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Trofimuk-O'Connor Christina Alice | officer | Award / grant | 2,646 | 37,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Inson Paul Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 2,405 | 33,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | McGinnis Patrick | director | Award / grant | 1,252 | 7,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Zhuang Mingzhe | director | Award / grant | 1,252 | 8,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Batungbacal Karen | director | Award / grant | 1,252 | 8,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Ballou-Aares Daniella | director | Award / grant | 1,252 | 11,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Afdahl David Martin | officer | Award / grant | 2,646 | 158,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Casteel Julie K | officer | Award / grant | 2,646 | 119,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Beck Fiona Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 1,252 | 14,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Darwal Michael Joseph | officer | Other acquisition | 200 | 40,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dechant Robert Thomas | director | Withheld for tax | 4,511 | 281,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Afdahl David Martin | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,138 | 156,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Casteel Julie K | officer | Withheld for tax | 910 | 116,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dawson Bruce Neil | officer | Withheld for tax | 886 | 61,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Greenwald Taylor C | officer | Withheld for tax | 853 | 61,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Inson Paul Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 823 | 30,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Trofimuk-O'Connor Christina Alice | officer | Withheld for tax | 700 | 35,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Darwal Michael Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 316 | 40,944 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Greenwald Taylor C | officer | Award / grant | 3,333 | 63,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Keen Shuja | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | McGinnis Patrick | director | Award / grant | 2,083 | 6,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Beck Fiona Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 2,083 | 13,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Batungbacal Karen | director | Award / grant | 2,083 | 7,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ballou-Aares Daniella | director | Award / grant | 2,083 | 17,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Zhuang Mingzhe | director | Award / grant | 2,083 | 7,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Jones John William | director | Award / grant | 2,250 | 15,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Dawson Bruce Neil | officer | Award / grant | 3,250 | 80,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Casteel Julie K | officer | Award / grant | 4,400 | 121,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Trofimuk-O'Connor Christina Alice | officer | Award / grant | 4,400 | 35,735 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.