Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.65 · now $1.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IAUX has typically landed between $1.33 and $2.12 — a range of −19.6% to +28.8% from the issuance price $1.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,336 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where IAUX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.61 (-2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.46–$1.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.33–$2.12
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,336 windows spanning 2021-04-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-10-17 | −68.7% | −68.7% | +6.2% |
| 2024-10-16 | −64.7% | −64.7% | +7.2% |
| 2024-10-15 | −64.4% | −64.4% | +6.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-11-02 | +76.5% | −1.8% | +77.1% |
| 2022-10-31 | +68.0% | −3.6% | +68.0% |
| 2022-11-03 | +65.6% | +0.0% | +80.4% |
1,336 overlapping windows · 2021-04-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−0.6%
n=5
Feb
60%
+7.4%
n=5
Mar
60%
−2.7%
n=5
Apr
40%
−1.6%
n=5
May
33%
−5.8%
n=6
Jun
33%
−3.2%
n=6
Jul
33%
−3.6%
n=6
Aug
67%
+13.4%
n=6
Sep
50%
+1.1%
n=6
Oct
20%
−4.1%
n=5
Nov
60%
+10.1%
n=5
Dec
60%
+5.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Sale | 19,231 @ $1.74 | $33K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 827,354 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Young Richard Scott | director | Purchase | 1,000,000 @ $1.62 | $1.6M | +20.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,971,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Savarie David Roger | officer | Purchase | 4,575 @ $1.59 | $7K | +1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 274,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Sale | 24,356 @ $1.59 | $39K | −2.9% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 827,354 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Yopps Steven W. | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $1.47 | $74K | ownership Δ n/a | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Seaman John William | director | Purchase | 32,000 @ $1.42 | $45K | +9.0% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 387,897 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Young Richard Scott | director | Purchase | 1,000,000 @ $1.40 | $1.4M | +25.2% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,971,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Butler Ronald Jr | director | Purchase | 17,730 @ $1.41 | $25K | +54.1% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,530 | Form 4 · filed 30 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Savarie David Roger | officer | Purchase | 6,500 @ $1.40 | $9K | +1.8% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 369,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Seaman John William | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $1.30 | $26K | +6.1% of holding | +13.5% | +2.1% | 346,942 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Seaman John William | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $1.03 | $31K | +10.1% of holding | +49.9% | +44.6% | 326,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Savarie David Roger | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $1.05 | $5K | +1.9% of holding | +49.6% | +34.5% | 263,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Savarie David Roger | officer | Purchase | 12,000 @ $0.62 | $7K | +4.9% of holding | −4.9% | +90.0% | 258,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | CLAYTON RONALD W | director | Purchase | 200,000 | — | +111.1% of holding | +19.9% | +76.1% | 380,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Purchase | 50,000 | — | +6.5% of holding | +19.9% | +76.1% | 817,710 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Purchase | 25,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Savarie David Roger | officer | Purchase | 20,000 | — | +8.8% of holding | +19.9% | +76.1% | 246,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Savarie David Roger | officer | Purchase | 10,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Snow Ryan Reid | officer | Purchase | 50,000 | — | +30.3% of holding | +19.9% | +76.1% | 215,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Snow Ryan Reid | officer | Purchase | 25,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Young Richard Scott | director | Purchase | 1,295,000 | — | +48.4% of holding | +19.9% | +76.1% | 3,971,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Young Richard Scott | director | Purchase | 647,500 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 647,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Snow Ryan Reid | officer | Purchase | 50,000 | — | +30.3% of holding | +19.9% | +76.1% | 215,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Snow Ryan Reid | officer | Purchase | 25,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | CLAYTON RONALD W | director | Purchase | 200,000 | — | +111.1% of holding | +19.9% | +76.1% | 380,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | CLAYTON RONALD W | director | Purchase | 100,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Purchase | 50,000 | — | +6.5% of holding | +19.9% | +76.1% | 817,710 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Purchase | 25,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Savarie David Roger | officer | Purchase | 20,000 | — | +8.8% of holding | +19.9% | +76.1% | 246,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Savarie David Roger | officer | Purchase | 10,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Young Richard Scott | director | Purchase | 1,295,000 | — | +48.4% of holding | +19.9% | +76.1% | 3,971,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Young Richard Scott | director | Purchase | 647,500 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 647,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Chawrun William Paul | officer | Purchase | 140,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 140,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Chawrun William Paul | officer | Purchase | 70,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 70,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | CLAYTON RONALD W | director | Purchase | 100,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Chawrun William Paul | officer | Purchase | 140,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 140,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-26 | Chawrun William Paul | officer | Purchase | 70,000 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +19.9% | +76.1% | 70,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Young Richard Scott | director | Purchase | 625,000 @ $0.55 | $346K | +30.5% of holding | −19.3% | −5.8% | 2,676,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Seaman John William | director | Purchase | 53,500 @ $0.55 | $30K | +22.0% of holding | −19.3% | −5.8% | 296,942 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Purchase | 44,987 @ $0.55 | $25K | +6.2% of holding | −19.3% | −5.8% | 767,710 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Snow Ryan Reid | officer | Purchase | 35,000 @ $0.55 | $19K | +26.9% of holding | −19.3% | −5.8% | 165,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Gili Matthew David | officer | Purchase | 35,000 @ $0.55 | $19K | +22.4% of holding | −19.3% | −5.8% | 191,194 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Savarie David Roger | officer | Purchase | 31,250 @ $0.55 | $17K | +16.0% of holding | −19.3% | −5.8% | 226,200 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Savarie David Roger | officer | Purchase | 31,250 @ $0.55 | $17K | ownership Δ n/a | −19.3% | −5.8% | 31,250 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
78 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Option exercise | 19,231 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Snow Ryan Reid | officer | Option exercise | 53,541 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Snow Ryan Reid | officer | Option exercise | 53,541 | 344,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Option exercise | 19,231 | 846,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Snow Ryan Reid | officer | Option exercise | 53,541 | 344,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Option exercise | 19,231 | 846,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Snow Ryan Reid | officer | Option exercise | 53,541 | 344,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Option exercise | 19,231 | 846,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Option exercise | 19,231 | 846,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Snow Ryan Reid | officer | Option exercise | 53,541 | 344,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | CLAYTON RONALD W | director | Exercise | 100,000 | 480,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | CLAYTON RONALD W | director | Exercise | 100,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Jalonen Michael | director | Award / grant | 9,615 | 9,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Einav Arthur | director | Award / grant | 9,615 | 9,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Gottesfeld Stephen P | director | Award / grant | 843 | 843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Joseph Cassandra Pulskamp | director | Award / grant | 10,490 | 10,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Yopps Steven W. | director | Award / grant | 9,615 | 9,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Joseph Cassandra Pulskamp | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Yopps Steven W. | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Butler Ronald Jr | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | CLAYTON RONALD W | director | Award / grant | 83,333 | 83,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Einav Arthur | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Gottesfeld Stephen P | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Jalonen Michael | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Option exercise | 34,000 | 851,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Begeman John Arthur | director | Option exercise | 34,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Joseph Cassandra Pulskamp | director | Award / grant | 10,490 | 10,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Jalonen Michael | director | Award / grant | 6,217 | 6,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Einav Arthur | director | Award / grant | 9,615 | 9,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Seaman John William | director | Award / grant | 11,364 | 11,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Yopps Steven W. | director | Award / grant | 6,217 | 6,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Yopps Steven W. | director | Award / grant | 21,766 | 21,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Joseph Cassandra Pulskamp | director | Award / grant | 68,803 | 68,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Butler Ronald Jr | director | Award / grant | 21,766 | 21,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Jalonen Michael | director | Award / grant | 21,766 | 21,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Einav Arthur | director | Award / grant | 10,185 | 10,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Snow Ryan Reid | officer | Award / grant | 197,778 | 197,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Young Richard Scott | director | Award / grant | 407,408 | 407,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Chawrun William Paul | officer | Award / grant | 280,000 | 280,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.