Issued 2026-09-16 at $52.34 · now $52.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HZO has typically landed between $42.52 and $63.71 — a range of −18.8% to +21.7% from the issuance price $52.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($52.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HZO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $52.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $52.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $52.24 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $47.82–$56.67
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $42.52–$63.71
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −77.8% | −77.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-10 | −75.5% | −75.5% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-07 | −74.5% | −74.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-10 | +204.8% | +0.0% | +204.8% |
| 2009-04-03 | +176.3% | +0.0% | +176.3% |
| 2009-03-11 | +143.0% | +0.0% | +143.0% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | McGill W Brett | director | Sale | 59,400 @ $27.52 | $1.6M | −25.5% of holding | −9.6% | +3.1% | 173,638 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | McGill W Brett | director | Sale | 600 @ $28.17 | $17K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | +3.1% | 173,038 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Biumi Bonnie | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $23.37 | $23K | +100.0% of holding | −11.3% | −10.4% | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Biumi Bonnie | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $26.50 | $27K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.5% | −3.3% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-27 | Moore Clint | director | Sale | 4,100 @ $30.63 | $126K | −14.8% of holding | −10.6% | −32.3% | 23,560 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-27 | Cassella Anthony E. Jr. | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $31.06 | $124K | −25.9% of holding | −10.6% | −32.3% | 11,451 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
113 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | Borst George E | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 45,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Borst George E | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Johnson Adam M. | director | Award / grant | 825 | 29,217 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Alvare Manuel A. III | officer | Withheld for tax | 731 | 10,314 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Alvare Manuel A. III | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 11,045 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-19 | Alvare Manuel A. III | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Berg Shawn | officer | Award / grant | 8,707 | 8,707 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Biumi Bonnie | director | Award / grant | 6,309 | 6,309 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Romero Mercedes | director | Award / grant | 6,309 | 6,309 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Borst George E | director | Award / grant | 6,309 | 6,309 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | McGill W Brett | director | Award / grant | 33,179 | 33,179 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | McGill W Brett | director | Award / grant | 84,993 | 84,993 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Berg Shawn | officer | Award / grant | 3,384 | 3,384 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Cassella Anthony E. Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 2,715 | 2,715 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Cassella Anthony E. Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 7,030 | 7,030 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Schiappa Daniel | director | Award / grant | 6,309 | 6,309 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | White Rebecca | director | Award / grant | 6,309 | 6,309 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Almeida Odilon | director | Award / grant | 6,309 | 6,309 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Alvare Manuel A. III | officer | Award / grant | 2,317 | 2,317 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Alvare Manuel A. III | officer | Award / grant | 6,057 | 6,057 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Johnson Adam M. | director | Award / grant | 6,309 | 6,309 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | MCLAMB MICHAEL H | officer | Award / grant | 7,316 | 7,316 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | MCLAMB MICHAEL H | officer | Award / grant | 18,982 | 18,982 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Langbehn Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 11,167 | 11,167 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Langbehn Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 28,499 | 28,499 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Biumi Bonnie | director | Option exercise | 4,633 | 6,633 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Romero Mercedes | director | Option exercise | 4,633 | 19,988 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Johnson Adam M. | director | Option exercise | 4,633 | 28,392 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Johnson Adam M. | director | Option exercise | 4,633 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Borst George E | director | Option exercise | 4,633 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Borst George E | director | Option exercise | 4,633 | 40,335 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Romero Mercedes | director | Option exercise | 4,633 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | White Rebecca | director | Option exercise | 4,633 | 30,465 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | White Rebecca | director | Option exercise | 4,633 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-14 | Biumi Bonnie | director | Option exercise | 4,633 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | McGill W Brett | director | Withheld for tax | 41,142 | 242,787 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Langbehn Kyle | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,553 | 62,599 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Cashman Charles A | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,464 | 88,199 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | MCLAMB MICHAEL H | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,875 | 132,263 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Berg Shawn | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,412 | 30,226 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.