Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.05 · now $20.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HYMC has typically landed between $13.14 and $31.49 — a range of −34.5% to +57.0% from the issuance price $20.05.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,117 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-03-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HYMC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.05 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.45 (-3.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.09–$22.8
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.14–$31.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,117 windows spanning 2018-03-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-10-27 | −61.3% | −61.3% | +0.0% |
| 2021-10-25 | −60.6% | −60.6% | +3.3% |
| 2021-10-26 | −60.2% | −61.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-02-23 | +784.0% | +0.0% | +784.0% |
| 2022-02-25 | +674.4% | −1.0% | +772.1% |
| 2022-02-24 | +656.3% | −7.0% | +719.6% |
2,117 overlapping windows · 2018-03-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
63%
+1.5%
n=8
Feb
63%
−3.5%
n=8
Mar
63%
+78.8%
n=8
Apr
78%
+1.3%
n=9
May
33%
+0.0%
n=9
Jun
33%
−14.8%
n=9
Jul
67%
+5.9%
n=9
Aug
44%
−5.6%
n=9
Sep
44%
−0.2%
n=9
Oct
63%
−0.4%
n=8
Nov
38%
−0.8%
n=8
Dec
63%
+8.6%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Thomas David Brian | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $26.32 | $658K | −12.9% of holding | −27.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 168,374 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Jennings Rebecca | officer | Sale | 1,194 @ $28.64 | $34K | −100.0% of holding | −33.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Jennings Rebecca | officer | Sale | 15,329 @ $26.25 | $402K | −7.0% of holding | −20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 202,498 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | GARRETT DIANE R | director | Sale | 21,550 @ $31.50 | $679K | −2.3% of holding | −27.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 928,352 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | RIDEOUT STANTON K | officer | Sale | 16,500 @ $30.18 | $498K | −3.3% of holding | −27.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 481,947 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Jennings Rebecca | officer | Sale | 11,300 @ $30.27 | $342K | −5.2% of holding | −27.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 204,494 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Thomas David Brian | officer | Sale | 9,000 @ $30.15 | $271K | −4.4% of holding | −27.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 193,374 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $37.84 | $3.8M | +0.3% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,403,704 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $39.06 | $3.9M | +0.3% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,203,704 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $38.28 | $3.8M | +0.3% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,303,704 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Jennings Rebecca | officer | Sale | 9,071 @ $39.33 | $357K | −4.0% of holding | −3.8% | −63.2% | 215,794 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $40.85 | $4.1M | +0.3% of holding | −9.3% | −57.3% | 37,103,704 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $47.58 | $4.8M | +0.3% of holding | −20.4% | −63.6% | 37,003,704 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 150,000 @ $42.05 | $6.3M | +0.4% of holding | −17.0% | −45.7% | 36,903,704 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200,000 @ $45.99 | $9.2M | +0.5% of holding | +23.0% | −65.5% | 36,753,704 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $49.96 | $5.0M | +0.3% of holding | −2.0% | −66.9% | 36,553,704 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200,000 @ $33.21 | $6.6M | +0.6% of holding | +5.1% | −52.6% | 36,453,704 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $27.05 | $676K | +0.1% of holding | +35.4% | −28.3% | 31,581,352 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-08 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $26.08 | $2.6M | +0.3% of holding | +47.4% | −31.2% | 31,556,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 400,000 @ $22.70 | $9.1M | +1.3% of holding | +95.7% | −9.8% | 31,456,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Thomas David Brian | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $21.21 | $318K | −15.6% of holding | +95.7% | −9.8% | 81,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $25.03 | $2.5M | +0.3% of holding | +105.9% | −15.2% | 31,056,352 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $24.83 | $2.5M | +0.3% of holding | +105.9% | −15.2% | 30,956,352 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $24.79 | $2.5M | +0.3% of holding | +119.0% | −14.2% | 30,856,352 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 150,000 @ $16.31 | $2.4M | +0.5% of holding | +183.1% | +23.8% | 30,756,352 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 220,000 @ $14.60 | $3.2M | +0.7% of holding | +204.3% | +67.1% | 30,606,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200,000 @ $13.03 | $2.6M | +0.7% of holding | +159.6% | +85.7% | 30,386,352 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-15 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200,000 @ $13.02 | $2.6M | +0.7% of holding | +162.7% | +86.2% | 30,186,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 40,000 @ $13.30 | $532K | +0.1% of holding | +154.0% | +87.6% | 29,986,352 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | WIESHOFER MARNI | director | Sale | 3,859 @ $13.37 | $52K | −5.2% of holding | +154.0% | +87.6% | 70,125 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 120,000 @ $12.36 | $1.5M | +0.4% of holding | +172.8% | +115.1% | 29,946,352 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-10 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 60,000 @ $11.64 | $698K | +0.2% of holding | +181.6% | +112.4% | 29,826,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 300,000 @ $11.74 | $3.5M | +1.0% of holding | +130.4% | +107.0% | 29,766,352 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,340,824 @ $10.30 | $24.1M | +8.6% of holding | +145.2% | +122.6% | 29,466,352 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,340,000 @ $0.00 | $0 | +13.2% of holding | +145.2% | +122.6% | 11,528,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 11,981 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | +145.2% | +122.6% | 11,981 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC. | director | Sale | 2,340,824 | — | −96.9% of holding | +145.2% | +122.6% | 76,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC. | director | Sale | 2,340,824 | — | −96.9% of holding | +145.2% | +122.6% | 76,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC. | director | Sale | 13,400,000 | — | −57.2% of holding | +145.2% | +122.6% | 10,008,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC. | director | Sale | 2,340,824 | — | −96.9% of holding | +145.2% | +122.6% | 76,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC. | director | Sale | 13,400,000 | — | −57.2% of holding | +145.2% | +122.6% | 10,008,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC. | director | Sale | 13,400,000 | — | −57.2% of holding | +145.2% | +122.6% | 10,008,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 400,000 @ $10.37 | $4.1M | +1.5% of holding | +32.1% | +211.6% | 27,125,528 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 500,000 @ $9.41 | $4.7M | +1.9% of holding | +41.7% | +270.5% | 26,725,528 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 500,000 @ $8.78 | $4.4M | +1.9% of holding | +48.0% | +289.9% | 26,225,528 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 500,000 @ $8.07 | $4.0M | +2.0% of holding | +51.7% | +375.8% | 25,725,528 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | Thomas David Brian | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $7.39 | $148K | −17.2% of holding | +30.8% | +404.6% | 96,070 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,690,000 @ $6.50 | $50.0M | +43.9% of holding | +11.8% | +409.5% | 25,225,528 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Jennings Rebecca | officer | Sale | 30,084 @ $6.57 | $198K | −23.1% of holding | +20.9% | +513.0% | 100,024 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,344,704 @ $4.28 | $40.0M | +114.1% of holding | +27.0% | +589.0% | 17,535,528 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,672,352 @ $0.00 | $0 | +84.7% of holding | +27.0% | +589.0% | 10,188,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,350,000 @ $3.50 | $22.2M | +345.0% of holding | +18.4% | +317.4% | 8,190,824 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,175,000 @ $0.00 | $0 | +135.6% of holding | +18.4% | +317.4% | 5,515,824 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | GARRETT DIANE R | director | Sale | 6,423 @ $3.08 | $20K | −2.7% of holding | −18.9% | +190.5% | 233,051 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | RIDEOUT STANTON K | officer | Sale | 4,398 @ $3.81 | $17K | −3.2% of holding | −18.9% | +190.5% | 132,986 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Thomas David Brian | officer | Sale | 1,417 @ $3.76 | $5K | −1.8% of holding | −18.9% | +190.5% | 76,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | RIDEOUT STANTON K | officer | Sale | 5,453 @ $2.97 | $16K | −3.8% of holding | +2.5% | +208.4% | 137,384 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | GARRETT DIANE R | director | Sale | 4,976 @ $3.02 | $15K | −2.0% of holding | +2.5% | +208.4% | 239,474 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Thomas David Brian | officer | Sale | 3,389 @ $3.01 | $10K | −4.2% of holding | +2.5% | +208.4% | 77,487 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Jennings Rebecca | officer | Sale | 3,332 @ $3.02 | $10K | −3.6% of holding | +2.5% | +208.4% | 90,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
47 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Cheuiche Godoy Marcelo | director | Award / grant | 1,811 | 4,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Rhodes Blake | director | Award / grant | 1,811 | 4,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Rhodes Blake | director | Award / grant | 2,257 | 2,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Olmsted Josh F. | director | Award / grant | 1,811 | 4,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Olmsted Josh F. | director | Award / grant | 2,257 | 2,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | OBRIEN RICHARD T | director | Award / grant | 2,264 | 4,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | OBRIEN RICHARD T | director | Award / grant | 2,257 | 2,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cheuiche Godoy Marcelo | director | Award / grant | 2,257 | 2,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Jennings Rebecca | officer | Award / grant | 9,226 | 206,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | GARRETT DIANE R | director | Withheld for tax | 12,986 | 915,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | RIDEOUT STANTON K | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,483 | 474,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Jennings Rebecca | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,195 | 197,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thomas David Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,195 | 163,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Colby Eric B | officer | Award / grant | 16,482 | 16,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | LANG STEPHEN A | director | Gift | 6,000 | 103,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | RIDEOUT STANTON K | officer | Award / grant | 17,224 | 498,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Jennings Rebecca | officer | Award / grant | 11,113 | 224,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Thomas David Brian | officer | Award / grant | 11,113 | 202,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Harrison Michael James | director | Award / grant | 3,062 | 80,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | LANG STEPHEN A | director | Award / grant | 3,062 | 109,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | WENG THOMAS S. | director | Award / grant | 3,062 | 93,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Goodman Sean D. | director | Award / grant | 5,359 | 5,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | GARRETT DIANE R | director | Award / grant | 33,172 | 949,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Naccarati David C | director | Award / grant | 3,062 | 78,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | GARRETT DIANE R | director | Withheld for tax | 31,810 | 919,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | RIDEOUT STANTON K | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,582 | 484,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Thomas David Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,379 | 193,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Jennings Rebecca | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,872 | 216,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | GARRETT DIANE R | director | Award / grant | 618,460 | 951,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Jennings Rebecca | officer | Award / grant | 119,885 | 219,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | RIDEOUT STANTON K | officer | Award / grant | 318,790 | 501,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Thomas David Brian | officer | Award / grant | 117,166 | 198,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Option exercise | 4,672,352 | 36,253,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Sprott Eric | tenPercentOwner | Option exercise | 4,672,352 | 6,855,824 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-03 | AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC. | director | Other acquisition | 11,981 | 64,037 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-03 | AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC. | director | Other acquisition | 11,981 | 64,037 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-03 | AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC. | director | Other acquisition | 11,981 | 64,037 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Jennings Rebecca | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 130,108 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | RIDEOUT STANTON K | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 182,986 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Thomas David Brian | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 116,070 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.