HXLHexcel CorporationIndustrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $91.08 · now $91.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HXL has typically landed between $79.92 and $103.88 — a range of −12.3% to +14.1% from the issuance price $91.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($91.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HXL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $91.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$79.92worst · -12.3%$103.88best · +14.1%
  • now $91.08 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $92.29 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $87.47–$97.11
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $79.92–$103.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−61.1%−61.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−58.0%−58.9%+0.0%
2020-02-18−57.6%−57.6%+3.3%
3 best
2020-05-06+70.3%−3.3%+70.3%
2009-03-06+69.1%−3.4%+69.1%
2020-05-07+68.2%−6.1%+68.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+2.0%
n=20
Feb
65%
+1.8%
n=20
Mar
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Apr
65%
+4.7%
n=20
May
55%
+3.1%
n=20
Jun
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Jul
65%
+1.4%
n=20
Aug
60%
+0.8%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.6%
n=20
Oct
55%
+2.4%
n=20
Nov
80%
+3.7%
n=20
Dec
30%
+0.0%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$110$602026-09-03: 2 insider sales, $1.3M — Lehman Gail E …2026-08-14: 2 insider sales, $998K — Fitzsimons Gina …2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $139K — Evans Amy S2025-10-29: 1 insider sale, $250K — Winterlich Patrick2025-10-27: 1 insider sale, $152K — Smith Lyndon John2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $59K — Fitzsimons Gina2025-08-28: 2 insider sales, $568K — Merlot Thierry …2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $568K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $59K2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $402K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $139K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $998K2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $1.3M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Lehman Gail E — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Lehman Gail E — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Fitzsimons Gina — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Fitzsimons Gina — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Evans Amy S — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Winterlich Patrick — Sale on 2025-10-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Smith Lyndon John — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Fitzsimons Gina — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Merlot Thierry — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Merlot Thierry — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Lehman Gail EofficerSale8,829 @ $92.09$813K−30.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open20,148Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-03Lehman Gail EofficerSale5,000 @ $92.12$461K−19.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open20,148Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-08-14Fitzsimons GinaofficerSale6,158 @ $103.15$635K−44.4% of holding−9.8%not yet — horizon still open7,712Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-14Fitzsimons GinaofficerSale3,517 @ $103.12$363K−31.3% of holding−9.8%not yet — horizon still open7,712Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27Evans Amy SofficerSale1,500 @ $92.80$139K−43.1% of holding−9.2%−10.0%1,979Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-29Winterlich PatrickofficerSale3,413 @ $73.34$250K−7.8% of holding+5.2%+21.4%40,357Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-27Smith Lyndon JohnofficerSale2,077 @ $73.02$152K−19.8% of holding+2.9%+18.8%8,426Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02Fitzsimons GinaofficerSale911 @ $65.00$59K−17.5% of holding−5.8%+34.6%4,283Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-28Merlot ThierryofficerSale5,397 @ $63.86$345K−9.5% of holding−6.2%+42.4%51,308Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-28Merlot ThierryofficerSale3,500 @ $63.86$224K−6.4% of holding−6.2%+42.4%51,308Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

241 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Lehman Gail EofficerOption exercise8,82928,977Form 4
2026-09-03Lehman Gail EofficerOption exercise5,00025,148Form 4
2026-09-03Lehman Gail EofficerOption exercise8,8290Form 4
2026-09-03Lehman Gail EofficerOption exercise5,0005,441Form 4
2026-08-14Fitzsimons GinaofficerOption exercise6,15813,870Form 4
2026-08-14Fitzsimons GinaofficerOption exercise3,51711,229Form 4
2026-08-14Fitzsimons GinaofficerOption exercise6,1580Form 4
2026-08-14Fitzsimons GinaofficerOption exercise3,5170Form 4
2026-08-03COOGAN JAMES GORDONofficerAward / grant7,6237,623Form 4
2026-08-03COOGAN JAMES GORDONofficerAward / grant3,0793,079Form 4
2026-08-03COOGAN JAMES GORDONofficerAward / grant21,99821,998Form 4
2026-07-29Smith Lyndon JohnofficerWithheld for tax8710,360Form 4
2026-07-29Smith Lyndon JohnofficerOption exercise22010,447Form 4
2026-07-29Smith Lyndon JohnofficerOption exercise220442Form 4
2026-07-27Smith Lyndon JohnofficerWithheld for tax69710,227Form 4
2026-07-27Smith Lyndon JohnofficerOption exercise1,66610,924Form 4
2026-07-27Smith Lyndon JohnofficerOption exercise1,6660Form 4
2026-07-23Stanage Nick LdirectorWithheld for tax57,174509,363Form 4
2026-07-23Stanage Nick LdirectorOption exercise70,293566,537Form 4
2026-07-23Stanage Nick LdirectorOption exercise70,2930Form 4
2026-07-14Stanage Nick LdirectorWithheld for tax52,169496,244Form 4
2026-07-14Stanage Nick LdirectorOption exercise65,502548,413Form 4
2026-07-14Stanage Nick LdirectorOption exercise65,5020Form 4
2026-07-10Hubbard PatriciadirectorAward / grant239239Form 4
2026-07-10Li David HdirectorOption exercise3734,612Form 4
2026-07-10Li David HdirectorAward / grant239239Form 4
2026-05-18Cannon James JdirectorAward / grant1,7921,792Form 4
2026-05-18Li David HdirectorAward / grant1,7921,792Form 4
2026-05-18Hubbard PatriciadirectorAward / grant1,7921,792Form 4
2026-05-18EGNOTOVICH CYNTHIA MdirectorAward / grant1,7921,792Form 4
2026-05-18HACHEY GUY CdirectorAward / grant1,7921,792Form 4
2026-05-18KEATING NEAL J.directorAward / grant1,7921,792Form 4
2026-05-18Stanage Nick LdirectorAward / grant1,7921,792Form 4
2026-05-18Suever Catherine AdirectorAward / grant1,7921,792Form 4
2026-05-13KEATING NEAL J.directorOption exercise254254Form 4
2026-05-13KEATING NEAL J.directorOption exercise2540Form 4
2026-05-08Suever Catherine AdirectorOption exercise2,6970Form 4
2026-05-08Li David HdirectorOption exercise2,6974,239Form 4
2026-05-08Stanage Nick LdirectorOption exercise2,697482,911Form 4
2026-05-08Suever Catherine AdirectorOption exercise2,69722,803Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.