HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.Industrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $227.73 · now $227.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HWM has typically landed between $205.83 and $266.23 — a range of −9.6% to +16.9% from the issuance price $227.73.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($227.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HWM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $227.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$205.83worst · -9.6%$266.23best · +16.9%
  • now $227.73 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $235.17 (+3.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $222.85–$247.49
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $205.83–$266.23
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−64.2%−64.2%+0.0%
2008-09-25−62.2%−62.2%+0.0%
2008-09-26−61.6%−61.6%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-18+69.1%+0.0%+69.1%
2009-03-17+63.7%−2.0%+63.7%
2009-03-05+55.4%−0.7%+55.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$115.7B
market cap
$4.31
EPS (TTM)
67.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$8.3B
'20'25
Net income$1.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr18.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr28.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.57
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $227.73$85.40$358.86
  • DCF (intrinsic)$104.26
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$132.11
  • Analyst target · range $228.00–$340.00$300.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$227.73

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+0.4%
n=18
Feb
68%
+5.9%
n=19
Mar
53%
−1.4%
n=19
Apr
47%
+0.9%
n=19
May
63%
+2.3%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.1%
n=19
Jul
58%
+4.9%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.4%
n=19
Sep
47%
−2.0%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.9%
n=18
Nov
61%
+4.7%
n=18
Dec
67%
+3.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$293$1712026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $11.3M — Marchuk Neil Edward2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $260K — Shultz Barbara Lou2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $11.4M — Marchuk Neil Edward2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $2.4M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $11.6M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $11.3M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Marchuk Neil Edward — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Shultz Barbara Lou — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Marchuk Neil Edward — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-11Marchuk Neil EdwardofficerSale41,932 @ $269.50$11.3M−39.2% of holding−6.9%not yet — horizon still open65,105Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26Shultz Barbara LouofficerSale1,000 @ $260.00$260K−4.0% of holding−4.7%−9.6%23,874Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Marchuk Neil EdwardofficerSale45,150 @ $251.70$11.4M−29.7% of holding−2.7%+1.1%107,008Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-05LIN LOLA FELICEofficerSale13,102 @ $180.51$2.4M−17.2% of holding−3.2%+6.6%63,150Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12PLANT JOHN CdirectorSale650,000 @ $156.96$102.0M−54.1% of holding+5.6%+16.2%551,186Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-12PLANT JOHN CdirectorSale150,000 @ $156.96$23.5M−38.8% of holding+5.6%+16.2%236,544Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-12Marchuk Neil EdwardofficerSale30,000 @ $158.53$4.8M−18.5% of holding+5.6%+16.2%131,859Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Shultz Barbara LouofficerSale1,250 @ $155.17$194K−5.1% of holding+7.0%+12.2%23,044Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18LIN LOLA FELICEofficerSale6,620 @ $136.39$903K−6.4% of holding+3.8%+20.7%97,134Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

65 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-02CANTIE JOSEPH SdirectorAward / grant13444,082Form 4
2026-05-21ALBAUGH JAMES FdirectorAward / grant73159,442Form 4
2026-05-21Alving Amy EdirectorAward / grant73157,820Form 4
2026-05-21Barner Sharon RdirectorAward / grant73116,582Form 4
2026-05-21CANTIE JOSEPH SdirectorAward / grant73143,948Form 4
2026-05-21LEDUC ROBERT FdirectorAward / grant73135,824Form 4
2026-05-21SCHMIDT ULRICHdirectorAward / grant73153,228Form 4
2026-05-21Smith GunnerdirectorAward / grant7315,844Form 4
2026-05-21Miller JodydirectorAward / grant73130,605Form 4
2026-04-15Arena Jonathan AofficerAward / grant3,5443,544Form 4
2026-04-02CANTIE JOSEPH SdirectorAward / grant15543,217Form 4
2026-02-17Shultz Barbara LouofficerAward / grant44624,874Form 4
2026-02-17CHANATRY MICHAEL NIEMofficerAward / grant2,693168,502Form 4
2026-02-17Marchuk Neil EdwardofficerAward / grant3,881152,158Form 4
2026-02-17Winterlich PatrickofficerAward / grant3,1683,168Form 4
2026-02-17PLANT JOHN CdirectorAward / grant22,3332,471,367Form 4
2026-02-16Marchuk Neil EdwardofficerWithheld for tax28,651148,277Form 4
2026-02-16CHANATRY MICHAEL NIEMofficerWithheld for tax9,579165,809Form 4
2026-02-16Shultz Barbara LouofficerWithheld for tax2,69224,428Form 4
2026-02-15CHANATRY MICHAEL NIEMofficerWithheld for tax10,741175,388Form 4
2026-02-03CHANATRY MICHAEL NIEMofficerAward / grant16,764186,129Form 4
2026-02-03Shultz Barbara LouofficerAward / grant4,07627,120Form 4
2026-02-03Marchuk Neil EdwardofficerAward / grant50,292176,928Form 4
2026-01-05CANTIE JOSEPH SdirectorAward / grant15843,062Form 4
2026-01-05Miller JodydirectorAward / grant15829,874Form 4
2026-01-05LEDUC ROBERT FdirectorAward / grant2835,093Form 4
2025-12-31Marchuk Neil EdwardofficerWithheld for tax5,255126,636Form 4
2025-12-01CHANATRY MICHAEL NIEMofficerDisposition8860Form 4
2025-10-02CANTIE JOSEPH SdirectorAward / grant17642,904Form 4
2025-10-02Miller JodydirectorAward / grant17629,716Form 4
2025-10-02LEDUC ROBERT FdirectorAward / grant3135,065Form 4
2025-07-02CANTIE JOSEPH SdirectorAward / grant19142,728Form 4
2025-07-02Miller JodydirectorAward / grant19129,540Form 4
2025-07-02LEDUC ROBERT FdirectorAward / grant3435,034Form 4
2025-07-01PLANT JOHN CdirectorAward / grant255,3632,449,034Form 4
2025-05-30Miller JodydirectorAward / grant1,03029,349Form 4
2025-05-30Alving Amy EdirectorAward / grant1,03057,089Form 4
2025-05-30Barner Sharon RdirectorAward / grant1,03015,851Form 4
2025-05-30SCHMIDT ULRICHdirectorAward / grant1,03052,497Form 4
2025-05-30CANTIE JOSEPH SdirectorAward / grant1,03042,537Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2026-02-122026-01-08$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2025-11-182025-10-23$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2025-11-182025-10-23$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-27$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-10-102025-09-16$15–50K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-09-122025-08-04$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-21$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-21$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2025-09-052025-08-07$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132024-12-11$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.