HWKN · TickerCove

HWKNHawkins, Inc.Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $122.95 · now $122.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HWKN has typically landed between $106.57 and $144.77 — a range of −13.3% to +17.7% from the issuance price $122.95.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($122.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$122.95 · 8% of range

$117.67 low$182.85 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.3%

typical move · IQR 15.2%

−13.3%worst (p90)+17.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HWKN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $122.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $122.95 (+0.0%)
typical $125.77 (+2.3%)
middle 50% $116.41–$135.13
90% range $106.57–$144.77

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−33.4%	−33.4%	+0.0%
2025-10-06	−30.0%	−30.0%	+0.0%
2025-10-08	−29.0%	−29.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2024-07-02	+36.6%	+0.0%	+36.6%
2023-08-02	+35.6%	+0.0%	+35.6%
2010-06-30	+34.8%	+0.0%	+34.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−3.0%

n=20

Feb

45%

+0.9%

n=20

Mar

70%

+4.3%

n=20

Apr

60%

+1.8%

n=20

May

45%

+2.6%

n=20

Jun

50%

+2.2%

n=20

Jul

40%

+2.6%

n=20

Aug

65%

+3.4%

n=20

Sep

70%

+2.4%

n=20

Oct

45%

−1.6%

n=20

Nov

60%

+3.9%

n=20

Dec

55%

+2.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-27	Oldenkamp Jeffrey P.	officer	Purchase	1,290 @ $119.00	$154K	+1.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	104,223	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-25	Lange Douglas A.	officer	Purchase	910 @ $118.75	$108K	+3.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	28,169	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-05	Faulconbridge James A	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $129.95	$195K	+2.9% of holding	+17.8%	−14.5%	52,407	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04	Faulconbridge James A	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $129.29	$194K	+3.0% of holding	+17.3%	−11.8%	50,907	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-03	Grahek Drew M.	officer	Purchase	1,587 @ $126.34	$201K	+4.2% of holding	+5.2%	+20.5%	39,640	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

50 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-07	Hawkins Patrick H.	director	Gift	580	321,257	Form 4
2026-07-29	Stauber Daniel J	director	Award / grant	721	35,498	Form 4
2026-07-29	Spethmann Jeffrey E	director	Award / grant	721	6,639	Form 4
2026-07-29	Tang Yi	director	Award / grant	721	8,612	Form 4
2026-07-29	WRIGHT JEFFREY L	director	Award / grant	721	42,916	Form 4
2026-07-29	Faulconbridge James A	director	Award / grant	721	53,128	Form 4
2026-07-29	THOMPSON JAMES T	director	Award / grant	721	38,916	Form 4
2026-07-29	Schumacher Mary J.	director	Award / grant	721	26,898	Form 4
2026-05-13	Grahek Drew M.	officer	Award / grant	2,697	37,136	Form 4
2026-05-13	Jones Gregory Alan	officer	Award / grant	1,970	10,144	Form 4
2026-05-13	Lange Douglas A.	officer	Award / grant	1,994	27,147	Form 4
2026-05-13	Rozeboom Shirley A.	officer	Award / grant	1,906	34,088	Form 4
2026-05-13	Hawkins Patrick H.	director	Award / grant	16,934	321,726	Form 4
2026-05-13	Oldenkamp Jeffrey P.	officer	Award / grant	8,435	102,818	Form 4
2026-05-13	Mangine David J.	officer	Award / grant	1,906	27,763	Form 4
2026-03-30	Hawkins Patrick H.	director	Withheld for tax	10,950	304,792	Form 4
2026-03-30	Oldenkamp Jeffrey P.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,675	94,383	Form 4
2026-03-30	Lange Douglas A.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,855	25,153	Form 4
2026-03-30	Grahek Drew M.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,818	34,439	Form 4
2026-03-30	Rozeboom Shirley A.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,608	31,959	Form 4
2026-03-30	Mangine David J.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,493	25,857	Form 4
2026-02-23	Hawkins Patrick H.	director	Gift	1,040	315,477	Form 4
2026-02-23	Hawkins Patrick H.	director	Gift	260	315,737	Form 4
2025-12-09	Grahek Drew M.	officer	Gift	1,460	38,184	Form 4
2025-11-12	Erstad Richard G	officer	Gift	50	64,782	Form 4
2025-09-04	Hawkins Patrick H.	director	Gift	220	316,444	Form 4
2025-07-30	WRIGHT JEFFREY L	director	Award / grant	628	42,195	Form 4
2025-07-30	Tang Yi	director	Award / grant	628	7,891	Form 4
2025-07-30	THOMPSON JAMES T	director	Award / grant	628	38,195	Form 4
2025-07-30	Spethmann Jeffrey E	director	Award / grant	628	5,911	Form 4
2025-07-30	Schumacher Mary J.	director	Award / grant	628	26,177	Form 4
2025-07-30	Faulconbridge James A	director	Award / grant	628	49,407	Form 4
2025-07-30	Stauber Daniel J	director	Award / grant	628	34,563	Form 4
2025-05-14	Rozeboom Shirley A.	officer	Award / grant	3,553	35,567	Form 4
2025-05-14	Mangine David J.	officer	Award / grant	3,553	29,104	Form 4
2025-05-14	Lange Douglas A.	officer	Award / grant	3,553	28,792	Form 4
2025-05-14	Oldenkamp Jeffrey P.	officer	Award / grant	15,757	99,832	Form 4
2025-05-14	Erstad Richard G	officer	Award / grant	4,442	64,748	Form 4
2025-05-14	Grahek Drew M.	officer	Award / grant	5,035	37,919	Form 4
2025-05-14	Hawkins Patrick H.	director	Award / grant	22,114	316,530	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i