Issued 2026-09-25 at $2.10 · now $2.10 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, HURA has typically landed between $1.24 and $3.55 — a range of −40.8% to +69.0% from the issuance price $2.10.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,393 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-02-22 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($2.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HURA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $2.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.1 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.93 (-8.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.58–$2.28
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.24–$3.55
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −69.5% | −69.5% | +0.0% |
| 2019-08-02 | −64.8% | −64.8% | +3.0% |
| 2019-07-31 | −64.5% | −64.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-10-10 | +356.1% | +0.0% | +477.6% |
| 2023-10-02 | +351.0% | −21.9% | +351.0% |
| 2023-10-06 | +323.9% | −14.6% | +393.0% |
3,393 overlapping windows · 2013-02-22 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-03-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: Placebo-Controlled Trial of IFx-Hu2.0 Followed By Pembrolizumab In Checkpoint Inhibitor Naïve Participants With Advanced Or Metastatic Merkel Cell Carcinoma (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
17 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Bianco James A. | director | Gift | 150,000 | 2,173,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | MANUSO JAMES S J | director | Award / grant | 156,240 | 156,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Hoffman Robert E. | director | Award / grant | 156,240 | 156,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | List Alan | director | Award / grant | 156,240 | 156,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Tendler Craig | director | Award / grant | 156,240 | 156,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Ng George K | director | Award / grant | 156,240 | 156,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Bianco James A. | director | Award / grant | 610,332 | 610,332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Dearborn Dan | officer | Award / grant | 273,696 | 273,696 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Dearborn Dan | officer | Award / grant | 1,531,367 | 1,531,367 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Bianco James A. | director | Award / grant | 3,414,891 | 3,414,891 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-10 | Tendler Craig | director | Award / grant | 151,883 | 151,883 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | Hoffman Robert E. | director | Award / grant | 51,275 | 51,275 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | List Alan | director | Award / grant | 51,275 | 51,275 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | Ng George K | director | Award / grant | 51,275 | 51,275 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | MANUSO JAMES S J | director | Award / grant | 59,590 | 59,590 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-12 | Dearborn Dan | officer | Award / grant | 489,848 | 489,848 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-12 | Bianco James A. | director | Award / grant | 1,065,990 | 1,065,990 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.