HUMHumana Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Healthcare Plansas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $384.72 · now $384.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HUM has typically landed between $324.31 and $448.91 — a range of −15.7% to +16.7% from the issuance price $384.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($384.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HUM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $384.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$324.31worst · -15.7%$448.91best · +16.7%
  • now $384.72 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $386.1 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $359.49–$412.7
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $324.31–$448.91
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-03−55.9%−55.9%+7.7%
2009-02-05−55.3%−58.0%+2.5%
2009-02-09−54.6%−59.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+71.6%+0.0%+76.3%
2020-03-24+56.7%+0.0%+61.5%
2020-03-20+55.9%−7.0%+64.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$46.7B
market cap
$9.35
EPS (TTM)
41.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$129.7B
'20'25
Net income$1.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$375M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr0.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr6.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.73
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $384.72$151.88$777.12
  • DCF (intrinsic)$734.00
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$256.57
  • Analyst target · range $195.00–$502.00$332.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$384.72

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−1.2%
n=18
Feb
32%
−1.9%
n=19
Mar
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Apr
58%
+4.2%
n=19
May
63%
+5.5%
n=19
Jun
74%
+1.4%
n=19
Jul
53%
−0.8%
n=19
Aug
79%
+4.6%
n=19
Sep
47%
−2.2%
n=19
Oct
61%
+3.0%
n=18
Nov
56%
+2.1%
n=18
Dec
50%
+1.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$410$1622026-02-23: 1 insider purchase, $150K — Shetty Sanjay K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $150K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Shetty Sanjay K — Purchase on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-23Shetty Sanjay KofficerPurchase810 @ $185.21$150K+7.5% of holding−0.9%+102.5%11,657Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14Rechtin James A.officerPurchase6,530 @ $229.25$1.5M+27.3% of holding+0.5%−11.9%30,474Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-31Huval Timothy S.directorSale3,703 @ $256.26$949K−31.2% of holding+13.5%−12.4%8,181Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

202 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Nundy ShantanuofficerAward / grant2,5492,549Form 4
2026-08-01Crawford Frederick JohndirectorAward / grant544544Form 4
2026-08-01Smith Paul JohndirectorAward / grant544544Form 4
2026-06-30HILZINGER KURT JdirectorAward / grant23316,534Form 4
2026-05-01Mehta JapanofficerAward / grant9,44817,176Form 4
2026-05-01Mellet CelesteofficerAward / grant15,38739,637Form 4
2026-05-01O'Hara Michelle A.directorAward / grant10,48520,026Form 4
2026-05-01Shetty Sanjay KofficerAward / grant9,94522,088Form 4
2026-05-01Martin AaronofficerAward / grant8,20625,237Form 4
2026-05-01Rechtin James A.officerAward / grant35,63363,938Form 4
2026-05-01Dintenfass DavidofficerAward / grant11,27325,407Form 4
2026-05-01Field Robert StuartdirectorAward / grant852852Form 4
2026-05-01Ventura Joseph CofficerAward / grant10,31827,405Form 4
2026-04-01Shetty Sanjay KofficerWithheld for tax40112,143Form 4
2026-04-01Shetty Sanjay KofficerOption exercise88712,544Form 4
2026-03-31HILZINGER KURT JdirectorAward / grant53616,301Form 4
2026-03-31Renaudin George IIofficerOther acquisition25199Form 4
2026-02-24Ventura Joseph CofficerWithheld for tax47817,087Form 4
2026-02-24Renaudin George IIofficerWithheld for tax41916,075Form 4
2026-02-24Felter John-Paul W.officerWithheld for tax847,484Form 4
2026-02-24Felter John-Paul W.officerOption exercise1657,568Form 4
2026-02-24Renaudin George IIofficerOption exercise1,03516,494Form 4
2026-02-24Ventura Joseph CofficerOption exercise1,03517,565Form 4
2026-02-23Felter John-Paul W.officerAward / grant5,6697,403Form 4
2026-02-21Dintenfass DavidofficerWithheld for tax1,18214,134Form 4
2026-02-21Dintenfass DavidofficerOption exercise3,85815,316Form 4
2026-02-13Mellet CelesteofficerWithheld for tax4,20424,250Form 4
2026-02-13Mehta JapanofficerWithheld for tax4307,728Form 4
2026-02-13Mellet CelesteofficerOption exercise7,76328,454Form 4
2026-02-13Mehta JapanofficerOption exercise1,6828,158Form 4
2026-02-12Martin AaronofficerAward / grant17,03117,031Form 4
2026-01-08Rechtin James A.officerWithheld for tax98028,305Form 4
2026-01-08Rechtin James A.officerOption exercise2,1832,183Form 4
2026-01-08Rechtin James A.officerOption exercise2,18329,285Form 4
2026-01-02KATZ KARENdirectorAward / grant7663,627Form 4
2026-01-02Bono Raquel C.directorAward / grant7663,174Form 4
2026-01-02Feinberg David TdirectorAward / grant7661,207Form 4
2026-01-02Frederick Wayne A.I.directorAward / grant7663,174Form 4
2026-01-02Smith GordondirectorAward / grant7661,549Form 4
2026-01-02DAMELIO FRANK AdirectorAward / grant76626,826Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-07$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-06-102026-05-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-05-042026-04-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-03-122026-02-10$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-03-102026-02-17$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-08-08$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-12-152025-11-12$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-12-092025-11-04$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.